Burden of Dengue with Related Entomological and Climatic Characteristics in Surat City, Gujarat, India, 2011-2016: An Analysis of Surveillance Data.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bajwala VR
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7356417 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Dengue is a widespread vector-borne disease believed to affect between 100 and 390 million people every year. The interaction between vector, host and pathogen is influenced by various climatic factors and the relationship between dengue and climatic conditions has been poorly explored in India. This study explores the relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and dengue cases in India. Additionally, distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the delayed effects of climatic factors on dengue cases. The weekly dengue cases reported by the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program (IDSP) over India during the period 2010-2017 were analysed. The study shows that dengue cases usually follow a seasonal pattern, with most cases reported in August and September. Both temperature and rainfall were positively associated with the number of dengue cases. The precipitation shows the higher transmission risk of dengue was observed between 8 and 15 weeks of lag. The highest relative risk (RR) of dengue was observed at 60 mm rainfall with a 12-week lag period when compared with 40 and 80 mm rainfall. The RR of dengue tends to increase with increasing mean temperature above 24 °C. The largest transmission risk of dengue was observed at 30 °C with a 0-3 weeks of lag. Similarly, the transmission risk increases more than twofold when the minimum temperature reaches 26 °C with a 2-week lag period. The dengue cases and El Niño were positively correlated with a 3-6 months lag period. The significant correlation observed between the IOD and dengue cases was shown for a 0-2 months lag period.
| S-EPMC6518529 | biostudies-literature
Project description:For the past ten years, the number of dengue cases has gradually increased in India. Dengue is driven by complex interactions among host, vector and virus that are influenced by climatic factors. In the present study, we focused on the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and its variability in different climatic zones of India. The EIP was calculated by using daily and monthly mean temperatures for the states of Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Kerala. Among the studied states, a faster/low EIP in Kerala (8-15 days at 30.8 and 23.4 °C) and a generally slower/high EIP in Punjab (5.6-96.5 days at 35 and 0 °C) were simulated with daily temperatures. EIPs were calculated for different seasons, and Kerala showed the lowest EIP during the monsoon period. In addition, a significant association between dengue cases and precipitation was also observed. The results suggest that temperature is important in virus development in different climatic regions and may be useful in understanding spatio-temporal variations in dengue risk. Climate-based disease forecasting models in India should be refined and tailored for different climatic zones, instead of use of a standard model.
| S-EPMC5583666 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:India has launched the malaria elimination initiative in February 2016. Studies suggest that estimates of malaria are useful to rationalize interventions and track their impact. Hence, a national study was launched to estimate burden of malaria in India in 2015. METHODS:For sampling, all 624 districts of India were grouped in three Annual Parasite Incidence (cases per thousand population) categories, < two (low); two-five (moderate) and > five (high) API. Using probability proportional to size (PPS) method, two districts from each stratum were selected covering randomly 200,000 persons per district. Active surveillance was strengthened with 40 trained workers per study district. Data on malaria cases and deaths was collated from all health care providers i.e. pathological laboratories, private practitioners and hospitals in private and public health sectors and was used for analysis and burden estimation. RESULTS:Out of 1215,114 population under surveillance, 198,612 (16.3%) tests were performed and 19,386 (9.7%) malaria cases were detected. The malaria cases estimated in India were 3875,078 (95% confidence interval 3792,018-3958,137) with API of 3.05 (2.99-3.12) including 2789,483 (2740,577-2838,389) Plasmodium falciparum with Annual Falciparum Incidence of 2.2 (2.16-2.24). Out of 8025 deaths investigated, 102 (1.27%) were attributed to malaria. The estimated deaths in India were 29,341 (23,354-35,327) including 19,067 (13,665-24,470) confirmed and 10,274 (7694-12,853) suspected deaths in 2015-2016. CONCLUSIONS:Estimated malaria incidence was about four folds greater than one million reported by the national programme, but three folds lesser than thirteen million estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO). However, the estimated deaths were 93 folds more than average 313 deaths reported by the national malaria programme in 2015-2016. The 29,341 deaths were comparable with 24,000 deaths in 2015 and 22,786 deaths in 2016 estimated by the WHO for India. These malaria estimates can serve as a benchmark for tracking the success of malaria elimination campaign in India.
| S-EPMC7160962 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The management of mosquito-borne diseases is a challenge in southern coastal Ecuador, where dengue is hyper-endemic and co-circulates with other arboviral diseases. Prior work in the region has explored social-ecological factors, dengue case data, and entomological indices. In this study, we bring together entomological and epidemiological data to describe links between social-ecological factors associated with risk of dengue transmission at the household level in Machala, Ecuador. Households surveys were conducted from 2014-2017 to assess the presence of adult Aedes aegypti (collected via aspiration) and to enumerate housing conditions, demographics, and mosquito prevention behaviors. Household-level dengue infection status was determined by laboratory diagnostics in 2014-2015. Bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify social-ecological variables associated with household presence of female Ae. aegypti and household dengue infection status, respectively. Aedes aegypti presence was associated with interruptions in water service and weekly trash collection, and household air conditioning was protective against mosquito presence. Presence of female Ae. aegypti was not associated with household dengue infections. We identified shaded patios and head of household employment status as risk factors for household-level dengue infection, while window screening in good condition was identified as protective against dengue infection. These findings add to our understanding of the systems of mosquito-borne disease transmission in Machala, and in the larger region of southern Ecuador, aiding in the development of improved vector surveillance efforts, and targeted interventions.
| S-EPMC8011822 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDengue is a major contributor to morbidity in children aged twelve and below throughout Cambodia; the 2012 epidemic season was the most severe in the country since 2007, with more than 42,000 reported (suspect or confirmed) cases.MethodsWe report basic epidemiological characteristics in a series of 701 patients at the National Paediatric Hospital in Cambodia, recruited during a prospective clinical study (2011-2012). To more fully explore this cohort, we examined climatic factors using multivariate negative binomial models and spatial clustering of cases using spatial scan statistics to place the clinical study within a larger epidemiological framework.ResultsWe identify statistically significant spatial clusters at the urban village scale, and find that the key climatic predictors of increasing cases are weekly minimum temperature, median relative humidity, but find a negative association with rainfall maximum, all at lag times of 1-6 weeks, with significant effects extending to 10 weeks.ConclusionsOur results identify clustering of infections at the neighbourhood scale, suggesting points for targeted interventions, and we find that the complex interactions of vectors and climatic conditions in this setting may be best captured by rising minimum temperature, and median (as opposed to mean) relative humidity, with complex and limited effects from rainfall. These results suggest that real-time cluster detection during epidemics should be considered in Cambodia, and that improvements in weather data reporting could benefit national control programs by allow greater prioritization of limited health resources to both vulnerable populations and time periods of greatest risk. Finally, these results add to the increasing body of knowledge suggesting complex interactions between climate and dengue cases that require further targeted research.
| S-EPMC4085229 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study was designed to assess whether churches in endemic dengue districts in Merida, Mexico provide suitable breeding habitats for mosquitoes and are potential sites for dengue virus (DENV) transmission. Churches were inspected for immature and adult mosquitoes once every week from November 2015 to October 2016. A total of 10,997 immatures of five species were collected. The most abundant species were Aedes aegypti (6,051) and Culex quinquefasciatus (3,018). The most common source of immature Ae. aegypti were buckets followed by disposable containers. Adult collections yielded 21,226 mosquitoes of nine species. The most common species were Cx. quinquefasciatus (15,215) and Ae. aegypti (3,902). Aedes aegypti were found all year long. Female Ae. aegypti (1,380) were sorted into pools (166) and assayed for flavivirus RNA by RT-PCR and Sanger sequencing. Two pools were positive for DENV (DENV-1 and 2). In conclusion, we demonstrated that some churches in Merida are infested with mosquitoes all year long and they potentially serve as sites for DENV transmission and should therefore be considered for inclusion in mosquito and arboviruses control and surveillance efforts.
| S-EPMC6376932 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study is aimed to estimate the epidemiological burden of dengue in Odisha, India using the disability adjusted life year (DALY) methods and to explore the associated factors in the year 2010-2016. During the period of 2010-2016, 27 772 cases (68.4% male) were reported in the state. Mean age (years) of male and female was 31.63 and 33.82, respectively. Mean district wise disability adjusted life years (DALY) per 100 000 people was higher in the year 2016 (0.45) and mean DALY lost per person was highest in the year 2015 (34.90?years). Adjusted regression model indicates, every unit increase in humidity and population density increases DALY by 1.05 and 1.02?units respectively. Whereas, unit change in sex ratio (females per 1000 males) and forest coverage increases the DALY by 0.98?units. Our results indicate geographical variation of DALY in Odisha, which is associated with population density, humidity and forest cover. Discrepancies identified between standard incidence and DALY maps suggests, latter can be used to present disease burden more effectively. More prevalence among young males suggests the need of strengthening the targeted prevention and control measures.
| S-EPMC6501402 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AbstractDengue virus (DENV) is a serious threat to public health. Having reliable estimates of the burden of dengue is important to inform policy and research, but surveillance systems are not designed to capture all symptomatic DENV infections. We derived the rate of reporting of dengue by comparing active surveillance of symptomatic DENV infections in a prospective community-based seroepidemiological cohort study (N = 1008) of acute febrile illness in Punta Princesa, Cebu City, Philippines, with passive surveillance data from the Cebu City Health Department. Febrile episodes detected in a weekly follow-up of participants were tested for serotype-specific DENV by hemi-nested reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (nested RT-PCR) and acute/convalescent blood samples tested by dengue IgM/IgG enzyme immunoassay. We estimated the burden of dengue in the Philippines in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte-Carlo simulations to address uncertainty. The results showed a 21% cumulative reporting rate of symptomatic DENV infections, equivalent to an expansion factor of 4.7 (95% certainty level [CL]: 2.2-15.1). Based on surveillance data in the Philippines for 2010-2014, we estimated 794,255 annual dengue episodes (95% CL: 463,000-2,076,000) and a disease burden of 535 (95% CL: 380-994) DALYs per million population using age weights and time discounting and 997 (95% CL: 681-1,871) DALYs per million population without age and time adjustments. Dengue imposes a substantial burden in the Philippines; almost 10 times higher than estimated for rabies, about twice the burden of intestinal fluke infections, and about 10% of the burden of tuberculosis. Our estimates should inform policy makers and raise awareness among the public.
| S-EPMC5392638 | biostudies-literature
Project description:According to the World Health Organization, dengue is a neglected tropical disease. Latin America, specifically Colombia is in alert regarding this arbovirosis as there was a spike in the number of reported dengue cases at the beginning of 2019. Although there has been a worldwide decrease in the number of reported dengue cases, Colombia has shown a growing trend over the past few years. This study performed a Poisson multilevel analysis with mixed effects on STATA® version 16 and R to assess sociodemographic, climatic, and entomological factors that may influence the occurrence of dengue in three municipalities for the period 2010-2015. Information on dengue cases and their sociodemographic variables was collected from the National Public Health Surveillance System (SIVIGILA) records. For climatic variables (temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation), we used the information registered by the weather stations located in the study area, which are managed by the Instituto de Hidrologia, Meteorologia y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM) or the Corporación Autónoma Regional (CAR). The entomological variables (house index, container index, and Breteau index) were provided by the Health office of the Cundinamarca department. SIVIGILA reported 1921 dengue cases and 56 severe dengue cases in the three municipalities; of them, three died. One out of four cases occurred in rural areas. The age category most affected was adulthood, and there were no statistical differences in the number of cases between sexes. The Poisson multilevel analysis with the best fit model explained the presentation of cases were temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, childhood, live in urban area and the contributory healthcare system. The temperature had the biggest influence on the presentation of dengue cases in this region between 2010 and 2015.
| S-EPMC8025047 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Entomological surveillance for arthropod-borne viruses is vital for monitoring vector-borne diseases and informing vector control programs. In this study, we conducted entomological surveillance in Zika virus endemic areas. In Thailand, it is standard protocol to perform mosquito control within 24 h of a reported dengue case. Aedes females were collected within 72 h of case reports from villages with recent Zika-human cases in Kamphaeng Phet Province, Thailand in 2017 and 2018. Mosquitoes were bisected into head-thorax and abdomen and then screened for Zika (ZIKV) and dengue (DENV) viruses using real-time RT-PCR. ZIKV RNA was detected in three samples from two female Ae. aegypti (1.4%). A partial envelope sequence analysis revealed that the ZIKV sequences were the Asian lineage identical to sequences from ZIKV-infected cases reported in Thailand during 2016 and 2017. Dengue virus-1 (DENV-1) and dengue virus-4 (DENV-4) were found in four Ae. aegypti females (2.8%), and partial capsid sequences were nearly identical with DENV-1 and DENV-4 from Thai human cases reported in 2017. Findings in the current study demonstrate the importance of entomological surveillance programs to public health mosquito-borne disease prevention measures and control.
| S-EPMC7350330 | biostudies-literature