Dataset Information

Nonpaternity and Half-Siblingships as Objective Measures of Extramarital Sex: Mathematical Modeling and Simulations.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Understanding the epidemiology of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) requires knowledge of sexual behavior, but self-reported behavior has limitations. We explored the reliability and validity of nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios as biomarkers of current and past extramarital sex.

Methods

An individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to describe partnering and conception in human populations with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The model was parameterized with representative biological, behavioral, and demographic data.

Results

Nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios were strongly correlated with extramarital sex, with Pearson correlation coefficients (PCC) of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.71-0.86) and 0.77 (0.68-0.84), respectively. Age-specific nonpaternity ratios correlated with past extramarital sex at time of conception for different scenarios: for example, PCC, after smoothing by moving averages, was 0.75 (0.52-0.89) in a scenario of steadily decreasing nonmarital sex and 0.39 (0.01-0.73) in a scenario of transient drops in nonmarital sex. Simulations assuming self-reported levels of extramarital sex from Kenya yielded nonpaternity levels lower than global nonpaternity data, suggesting sizable underreporting of extramarital sex.

Conclusions

Nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios are useful objective measures of extramarital sex that avoid limitations in self-reported sexual behavior.

SUBMITTER: Omori R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5585552 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Nonpaternity and Half-Siblingships as Objective Measures of Extramarital Sex: Mathematical Modeling and Simulations.

Omori Ryosuke R Nagelkerke Nico N Abu-Raddad Laith J LJ

BioMed research international 20170822

<h4>Background</h4>Understanding the epidemiology of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) requires knowledge of sexual behavior, but self-reported behavior has limitations. We explored the reliability and validity of nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios as biomarkers of current and past extramarital sex.<h4>Methods</h4>An individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to describe partnering and conception in human populations with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SS ...[more]

PMID: 28904953

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Project description:Background and objectivesLiposuction continues to be one of the most popular procedures performed in cosmetic surgery. As the public's demand for body contouring continues, laser lipolysis has been proposed to improve results, minimize risk, optimize patient comfort, and reduce the recovery period. Mathematical modeling of laser lipolysis could provide a better understanding of the laser lipolysis process and could determine the optimal dosage as a function of fat volume to be removed.Study design/materials and methodsAn Optical-Thermal-Damage Model was formulated using finite-element modeling software (Femlab 3.1, Comsol Inc). The general model simulated light distribution using the diffusion approximation of the transport theory, temperature rise using the bioheat equation and laser-induced injury using the Arrhenius damage model. Biological tissue was represented by two homogenous regions (dermis and fat layer) with a nonlinear air-tissue boundary condition including free convection. Video recordings were used to gain a better understanding of the back and forth movement of the cannula during laser lipolysis in order to consider them in our mathematical model. Infrared video recordings were also performed in order to compare the actual surface temperatures to our calculations. The reduction in fat volume was determined as a function of the total applied energy and subsequently compared to clinical data reported in the literature.ResultsIn patients, when using cooled tumescent anesthesia, 1064 nm Nd:YAG laser or 980 nm diode laser: (6 W, back and forth motion: 100 mm/s) give similar skin surface temperature (max: 41 degrees C). These measurements are in accordance with those obtained by mathematical modeling performed with a 1 mm cannula inserted inside the hypodermis layer at 0.8 cm below the surface. Similarly, the fat volume reduction observed in patients at 6-month follow up can be determined by mathematical modeling. This fat reduction depends on the applied energy, typically 5 cm3 for 3000 J. At last, skin retraction was observed in patients at 6-month follow up. This observation can be easily explained by mathematical modeling showing that the temperature increase inside the lower dermis is sufficient (48-50 degrees C) to induce skin tighteningDiscussion and conclusionLaser lipolysis can be described by a theoretical model. Fat volume reduction observed in patients is in accordance with model calculations. Due to heat diffusion, temperature elevation is also produced inside the lower reticular dermis. This interesting observation can explain remodeling of the collagenous tissue, with clinically evident skin tightening. In conclusion, while the heat generated by interstitial laser irradiation provides stimulate lipolysis of the fat cells, the collagen and elastin are also stimulated resulting in a tightening in the skin. This mathematical model should serve as a useful tool to simulate and better understand the mechanism of action of the laser lipolysis.

Dataset Information

Nonpaternity and Half-Siblingships as Objective Measures of Extramarital Sex: Mathematical Modeling and Simulations.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Nonpaternity and Half-Siblingships as Objective Measures of Extramarital Sex: Mathematical Modeling and Simulations.

Similar Datasets

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