Dataset Information

Incidence of Brain Infarcts, Cognitive Change, and Risk of Dementia in the General Population: The AGES-Reykjavik Study (Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study).

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE:The differentiation of brain infarcts by region is important because their cause and clinical implications may differ. Information on the incidence of these lesions and association with cognition and dementia from longitudinal population studies is scarce. We investigated the incidence of infarcts in cortical, subcortical, cerebellar, and overall brain regions and how prevalent and incident infarcts associate with cognitive change and incident dementia. METHODS:Participants (n=2612, 41% men, mean age 74.6±4.8) underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging for the assessment of infarcts and cognitive testing at baseline and on average 5.2 years later. Incident dementia was assessed according to the international guidelines. RESULTS:Twenty-one percent of the study participants developed new infarcts. The risk of incident infarcts in men was higher than the risk in women (1.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-2.3). Persons with both incident and prevalent infarcts showed steeper cognitive decline and had almost double relative risk of incident dementia (1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-2.2) compared with those without infarcts. Persons with new subcortical infarcts had the highest risk of incident dementia compared with those without infarcts (2.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.9-3.4). CONCLUSIONS:Men are at greater risk of developing incident brain infarcts than women. Persons with incident brain infarcts decline faster in cognition and have an increased risk of dementia compared with those free of infarcts. Incident subcortical infarcts contribute more than cortical and cerebellar infarcts to incident dementia which may indicate that infarcts of small vessel disease origin contribute more to the development of dementia than infarcts of embolic origin in larger vessels.

SUBMITTER: Sigurdsson S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5588878 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Incidence of Brain Infarcts, Cognitive Change, and Risk of Dementia in the General Population: The AGES-Reykjavik Study (Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study).

Sigurdsson Sigurdur S Aspelund Thor T Kjartansson Olafur O Gudmundsson Elias F EF Jonsdottir Maria K MK Eiriksdottir Gudny G Jonsson Palmi V PV van Buchem Mark A MA Gudnason Vilmundur V Launer Lenore J LJ

Stroke 20170801 9

<h4>Background and purpose</h4>The differentiation of brain infarcts by region is important because their cause and clinical implications may differ. Information on the incidence of these lesions and association with cognition and dementia from longitudinal population studies is scarce. We investigated the incidence of infarcts in cortical, subcortical, cerebellar, and overall brain regions and how prevalent and incident infarcts associate with cognitive change and incident dementia.<h4>Methods< ...[more]

PMID: 28765285

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Project description:BackgroundStudies on the association of cerebrovascular risk factors to magnetic resonance imaging detected brain infarcts have been inconsistent, partly reflecting limits of assessment to infarcts anywhere in the brain, as opposed to specific brain regions. We hypothesized that risk-factors may differ depending on where the infarct is located in subcortical-, cortical-, and cerebellar regions.MethodsParticipants (n=2662, mean age 74.6±4.8) from the longitudinal population-based AGES (Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility)-Reykjavik Study underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging at baseline and on average 5.2 years later. We assessed the number and location of brain infarcts (prevalent versus incident). We estimated the risk-ratios of prevalent (PRR) and incident (IRR) infarcts by baseline cerebrovascular risk-factors using Poisson regression.ResultsThirty-one percent of the study participants had prevalent brain infarcts and 21% developed new infarcts over 5 years. Prevalent subcortical infarcts were associated with hypertension (PRR, 2.7 [95% CI, 1.1-6.8]), systolic blood pressure (PRR, 1.2 [95% CI, 1.1-1.4]), and diabetes (PRR, 2.8 [95% CI, 1.9-4.1]); incident subcortical infarcts were associated with systolic (IRR, 1.2 [95% CI, 1.0-1.4]) and diastolic (IRR, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.0-1.6]) blood pressure. Prevalent and incident cortical infarcts were associated with carotid plaques (PRR, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.3-2.5] and IRR, 1.9 [95% CI, 1.3-2.9], respectively), and atrial fibrillation was significantly associated with prevalent cortical infarcts (PRR, 1.8 [95% CI, 1.2-2.7]). Risk-factors for prevalent cerebellar infarcts included hypertension (PRR, 2.45 [95% CI, 1.5-4.0]), carotid plaques (PRR, 1.45 [95% CI, 1.2-1.8]), and migraine with aura (PRR, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.1-2.2]). Incident cerebellar infarcts were only associated with any migraine (IRR, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.0-2.0]).ConclusionsThe risk for subcortical infarcts tends to increase with small vessel disease risk-factors such as hypertension and diabetes. Risk for cortical infarcts tends to increase with atherosclerotic/coronary processes and risk for cerebellar infarcts with a more mixed profile of factors. Assessment of risk-factors by location of asymptomatic infarcts found on magnetic resonance imaging may improve the ability to target and optimize preventive therapeutic approaches to prevent stroke.

Project description:BackgroundEarly identification of dementia is crucial for prompt intervention for high-risk individuals in the general population. External validation studies on prognostic models for dementia have highlighted the need for updated models. The use of machine learning in dementia prediction is in its infancy and may improve predictive performance. The current study aimed to explore the difference in performance of machine learning algorithms compared to traditional statistical techniques, such as logistic and Cox regression, for prediction of all-cause dementia. Our secondary aim was to assess the feasibility of only using clinically accessible predictors rather than MRI predictors.MethodsData are from 4,793 participants in the population-based AGES-Reykjavik Study without dementia or mild cognitive impairment at baseline (mean age: 76 years, % female: 59%). Cognitive, biometric, and MRI assessments (total: 59 variables) were collected at baseline, with follow-up of incident dementia diagnoses for a maximum of 12 years. Machine learning algorithms included elastic net regression, random forest, support vector machine, and elastic net Cox regression. Traditional statistical methods for comparison were logistic and Cox regression. Model 1 was fit using all variables and model 2 was after feature selection using the Boruta package. A third model explored performance when leaving out neuroimaging markers (clinically accessible model). Ten-fold cross-validation, repeated ten times, was implemented during training. Upsampling was used to account for imbalanced data. Tuning parameters were optimized for recalibration automatically using the caret package in R.Results19% of participants developed all-cause dementia. Machine learning algorithms were comparable in performance to logistic regression in all three models. However, a slight added performance was observed in the elastic net Cox regression in the third model (c = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.78-0.78) compared to the traditional Cox regression (c = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.74-0.77).ConclusionsSupervised machine learning only showed added benefit when using survival techniques. Removing MRI markers did not significantly worsen our model's performance. Further, we presented the use of a nomogram using machine learning methods, showing transportability for the use of machine learning models in clinical practice. External validation is needed to assess the use of this model in other populations. Identifying high-risk individuals will amplify prevention efforts and selection for clinical trials.

Project description:ObjectiveAge and high blood pressure are major risk factors for cerebral microbleeds (CMBs). However, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear and arterial stiffness may be important. We investigated whether carotid arterial stiffness is associated with incidence and location of CMBs.Approach and resultsIn the prospective, population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES)-Reykjavik study, 2512 participants aged 66 to 93 years underwent a baseline brain MRI examination and carotid ultrasound in 2002 to 2006 and returned for a repeat brain MRI in 2007 to 2011. Common carotid arterial stiffness was assessed using a standardized protocol and expressed as carotid arterial strain, distensibility coefficient, and Young elastic modulus. Modified Poisson regression was applied to relate carotid arterial stiffness parameters to CMB incidence. During a mean follow-up of 5.2 years, 463 people (18.4%) developed new CMBs, of whom 292 had CMBs restricted to lobar regions and 171 had CMBs in a deep or infratentorial region. After adjusting for age, sex, and follow-up interval, arterial stiffness measures were associated with incident CMBs (risk ratio per SD decrease in carotid arterial strain, 1.11 [95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.21]; per SD decrease in natural log-transformed distensibility coefficient, 1.14 [1.05-1.24]; and per SD increase in natural log-transformed Young elastic modulus, 1.13 [1.04-1.23]). These measures were also significantly associated with incident deep CMBs (1.18 [1.02-1.37]; 1.24 [1.08-1.42]; and 1.23 [1.07-1.42]) but not with lobar CMBs. When further adjusted for blood pressure and other baseline vascular risk factors, carotid plaque, prevalent CMBs, subcortical infarcts, and white matter hyperintensities, the associations persisted.ConclusionsOur findings support the hypothesis that localized increases in carotid arterial stiffness may contribute to the development of CMBs, especially in a deep location attributable to hypertension.

Dataset Information

Incidence of Brain Infarcts, Cognitive Change, and Risk of Dementia in the General Population: The AGES-Reykjavik Study (Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study).

Publications

Incidence of Brain Infarcts, Cognitive Change, and Risk of Dementia in the General Population: The AGES-Reykjavik Study (Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study).

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