Comparison of APACHE IV with APACHE II, SAPS 3, MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP scores in predicting mortality after liver transplantation.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Lee H
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5589917 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Acute myocarditis is an uncommon and potentially life-threatening disease. Scoring systems are essential for predicting outcome and evaluating the therapy effect of adult patients with acute myocarditis. The aim of this study was to determine the value of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) and second Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II) scoring systems in predicting short-term mortality of these patients. We retrospectively analyzed data from 305 adult patients suffering from acute myocarditis between April 2005 and August 2016. The association between the value of admission SOFA, APACHE IV and SAPS II scores and risk of short-term mortality was determined. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that SOFA, APACHE IV and SAPS II scores were independent risk factors of death in patients with acute myocarditis. For each scoring system, Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the cumulative short-term mortality was significantly higher in patients with higher admission scores compared with those with lower admission scores. For the prediction of short-term mortality in a patient with acute myocarditis, SAPS II had the highest accuracy followed by the APACHE IV and SOFA scores.
| S-EPMC5609904 | biostudies-other
Project description:There are few comparisons among the most recent versions of the major adult ICU prognostic systems (APACHE [Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation] IV, Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS] 3, Mortality Probability Model [MPM]0III). Only MPM0III includes resuscitation status as a predictor.We assessed the discrimination, calibration, and overall performance of the models in 2,596 patients in three ICUs at our tertiary referral center in 2006. For APACHE and SAPS, the analyses were repeated with and without inclusion of resuscitation status as a predictor variable.Of the 2,596 patients studied, 283 (10.9%) died before hospital discharge. The areas under the curve (95% CI) of the models for prediction of hospital mortality were 0.868 (0.854-0.880), 0.861 (0.847-0.874), 0.801 (0.785-0.816), and 0.721 (0.704-0.738) for APACHE III, APACHE IV, SAPS 3, and MPM0III, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics for the models were 33.7, 31.0, 36.6, and 21.8 for APACHE III, APACHE IV, SAPS 3, and MPM0III, respectively. Each of the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics generated P values < .05, indicating poor calibration. Brier scores for the models were 0.0771, 0.0749, 0.0890, and 0.0932, respectively. There were no significant differences between the discriminative ability or the calibration of APACHE or SAPS with and without “do not resuscitate” status.APACHE III and IV had similar discriminatory capability and both were better than SAPS 3, which was better than MPM0III. The calibrations of the models studied were poor. Overall, models with more predictor variables performed better than those with fewer. The addition of resuscitation status did not improve APACHE III or IV or SAPS 3 prediction.
| S-EPMC3465106 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background: There are several scores used for in-hospital mortality prediction in critical illness. Their application in a local scenario requires validation to ensure appropriate diagnostic accuracy. Moreover, their use in assessing post-discharge mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) survivors has not been extensively studied. We aimed to validate APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores in short- and long-term mortality prediction in a mixed adult ICU in Poland. APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores, with corresponding predicted mortality ratios, were calculated for 303 consecutive patients admitted to a 10-bed ICU in 2016. Short-term (in-hospital) and long-term (12-month post-discharge) mortality was assessed.Results: Median APACHE II, APACHE III and SAPS II scores were 19 (IQR 12-24), 67 (36.5-88) and 44 (27-56) points, with corresponding in-hospital mortality ratios of 25.8% (IQR 12.1-46.0), 18.5% (IQR 3.8-41.8) and 34.8% (IQR 7.9-59.8). Observed in-hospital mortality was 35.6%. Moreover, 12-month post-discharge mortality reached 17.4%. All the scores predicted in-hospital mortality (p?<?0.05): APACHE II (AUC?=?0.78; 95%CI 0.73-0.83), APACHE III (AUC?=?0.79; 95%CI 0.74-0.84) and SAPS II (AUC?=?0.79; 95%CI 0.74-0.84); as well as mortality after hospital discharge (p?<?0.05): APACHE II (AUC?=?0.71; 95%CI 0.64-0.78), APACHE III (AUC?=?0.72; 95%CI 0.65-0.78) and SAPS II (AUC?=?0.69; 95%CI 0.62-0.76), with no statistically significant difference between the scores (p?>?0.05). The calibration of the scores was good.Conclusions: All the scores are acceptable predictors of in-hospital mortality. In the case of post-discharge mortality, their diagnostic accuracy is lower and of borderline clinical relevance. Further studies are needed to create scores estimating the long-term prognosis of subjects successfully discharged from the ICU.
| S-EPMC7709291 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveVarious methods, including the indocyanine green (ICG) clearance test, the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (CTP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD combined with serum sodium concentration (MELD-Na), have been used widely in liver function evaluation in patients with end-stage liver disease. In this study, we compared the ability of these methods to predict mortality in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis.MethodsA total of 98 patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis were included in this study and followed up for 12 months. The ICG-derived measurements (ICG-PDR, ICG-R15, EHBF), CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na were obtained within 2 days after patients' admission and patients' survival at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months was recorded. Receiver operating curve was used to evaluate the ability of these methods to predict mortality in these patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis.ResultsAt 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months, the cumulative number of deaths and liver transplant recipients was 12 (12.2%), 17 (17.3%), 21 (21.4%) and 25 (25.5%), respectively. The ICG-derived measurements, CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na of nonsurvivors were significantly different compared with that in survivors. All methods yielded viable values in predicting short-term and medium-term prognosis for patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis, with most area under the curve exceeding 0.8. Moreover, the ICG-derived measurements showed a significant correlation with that of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na.ConclusionAll four methods, ICG clearance test, CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na, provided reliable prediction of mortality in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis for both short-term and medium-term prognosis.
| S-EPMC4777221 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The early postoperative period is critical for surgical patients. SOFA, SAPS 3 and APACHE II are prognostic scores widely used to predict mortality in ICU patients. This study aimed to evaluate these index tests for their prognostic accuracy for intra-ICU and in-hospital mortalities as target conditions in patients admitted to ICU after urgent or elective surgeries and to test whether they aid in decision-making. The process comprised the assessment of discrimination through analysis of the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration of the prognostic models for the target conditions. After, the clinical relevance of applying them was evaluated through the measurement of the net benefit of their use in the clinical decision. RESULTS:Index tests were found to discriminate regular for both target conditions with a poor calibration (C statistics-intra-ICU mortality AUROCs: APACHE II 0.808, SAPS 3 0.821 and SOFA 0.797/in-hospital mortality AUROCs: APACHE II 0.772, SAPS 3 0.790 and SOFA 0.742). Calibration assessment revealed a weak correlation between the observed and expected number of cases in several thresholds of risk, calculated by each model, for both tested outcomes. The net benefit analysis showed that all score's aggregate value in the clinical decision when the calculated probabilities of death ranged between 10 and 40%. CONCLUSIONS:In this study, we observed that the tested ICU prognostic scores are fair tools for intra-ICU and in-hospital mortality prediction in a cohort of postoperative surgical patients. Also, they may have some potential to be used as ancillary data to support decision-making by physicians and families regarding the level of therapeutic investment and palliative care.
| S-EPMC6353976 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe aim of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and SAPS 3 is to predict the mortality of patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). Previous studies have suggested that the calibration of these scores may vary across countries, centers, and/or characteristics of patients. In the present study, we aimed to assess determinants of the calibration of these scores.MethodsWe assessed the calibration of the SAPS II and SAPS 3 scores among 5266 patients admitted to ICUs during a 4-week period at 120 centers in 17 European countries. We obtained calibration curves, Brier scores, and standardized mortality ratios. Points attributed to SAPS items were reevaluated and compared with those of the original scores. Finally, we tested associations between the calibration and center characteristics.ResultsThe mortality was overestimated by both scores: The standardized mortality ratios were 0.75 (95% CI 0.71-0.79) for the SAPS II score and 0.91 (95% CI 0.86-0.96) for the SAPS 3 score. This overestimation was partially explained by changes in associations between some items of the scores and mortality, especially the heart rate, Glasgow Coma Scale score, and diagnosis of AIDS for SAPS II. The calibration of both scores was better in countries with low health expenditures. The between-center variability in calibration curves was much greater than expected by chance.ConclusionsBoth scores overestimate current mortality among European ICU patients. The magnitude of the miscalibration of SAPS II and SAPS 3 scores depends not only on patient characteristics but also on center characteristics. Furthermore, much between-center variability in calibration remains unexplained by these factors.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01422070 . Registered 19 August 2011.
| S-EPMC5379500 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The vast majority of patients with cirrhosis have low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) scores; however, the ability for the MELD-Na score to predict patient outcomes at low scores is unclear. METHODS:Adult patients in a multicenter, Chicago-wide database of medical records with International Classification of Disease, Ninth Edition codes of cirrhosis and without a history of hepatocellular carcinoma were included. Records were linked with the state death registry, and death certificates were manually reviewed. Deaths were classified as "liver-related," "non-liver-related," and "non-descript" as adjudicated by a panel comprised of a transplant surgeon, a hepatologist, and an internist. A sensitivity analysis was performed where patients with hepatocellular carcinoma were included. RESULTS:Among 7922 identified patients, 3999 patients had MELD-Na scores that were never higher than 15. In total, 2137 (27%) patients died during the study period with higher mortality rates for the patients in the high MELD-Na group (19.4 (41.6%) versus 4.1 (12.6%) per 100 person-y, P < 0.001). The high MELD-Na group died of a liver-related cause in 1142 out of 1632 (70%) as compared to 240 out of 505 (47.5%) deaths in the low MELD-Na group. There was no difference in the distribution of subcategory of liver-related death between low and high MELD-Na groups. Among subclassification of liver-related deaths, the most common cause of death was "Infectious" in both groups. CONCLUSIONS:Despite persistently low MELD-Na scores, patients with cirrhosis still experience high rates of liver-related mortality.
| S-EPMC7192363 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThe Nutrition Risk in the Critically Ill (NUTRIC) score has been advocated as a screening tool for nutrition risk assessment in critically ill patients. It was developed and validated to predict 28-day mortality using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score as one of its components. However, nowadays the Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3) demonstrates better performance. We aimed to test the performance of NUTRIC score in predicting 28-day mortality after replacement of APACHE II by SAPS 3, and the interaction between nutrition adequacy and mortality.MethodsAdult patients who received nutrition therapy and remained >3 days in intensive care unit were retrospectively evaluated. In order to replace APACHE II component, we used ranges of SAPS 3 with similar predicted mortality. Discrimination between these tools in predicting 28-day mortality was assessed using the ROC curve, calibration was evaluated with calibration belt, and correlation with intraclass correlation. The relationship between nutritional adequacy and mortality was assessed in a subgroup with available data.Results542 patients were analyzed (median age of 78 years old, 73.4% admitted for non-surgical reasons and 28-day mortality was 18.1%). Mortality prediction discrimination did not differ between tools (p>0.05), but showed a good agreement (intraclass correlation 0.86) with good calibration. In the subgroup analysis for nutritional adequacy (n = 99), no association with mortality was observed.ConclusionPerformance of NUTRIC score with SAPS 3 is similar to the original tool. Therefore, it might be used in settings where APACHE II is not available.
| S-EPMC9249235 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Clinical assessment of disease severity is an important part of medical practice for prediction of mortality and morbidity in Intensive Care Unit (ICU). A disease severity scoring system can be used as guidance for clinicians for objective assessment of disease outcomes and estimation of the chance of recovery. This study aimed to evaluate the hypothesis that the mortality and length of stay in emergency ICUs predicted by APACHE-IV is different to the real rates of mortality and length of stay observed in our emergency ICU in Iran. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study conducted on the data of 839 consecutive patients admitted to the emergency ICU of Nemazi Hospital, Shiraz, Iran, during 2012-2015. The relevant variables were used to calculate APACHE-IV. Length of stay and death or discharge, Glasgow coma score, and acute physiology score were also evaluated. Moreover, the accuracy of APACHE-IV for mortality was assessed using area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: Of the studied patients, 157 died and 682 were discharged (non-survivors and survivors, respectively). The length of stay in the ICU was 10.98±14.60, 10.22 ± 14.21 and 14.30±15.80 days for all patients, survivors, and non-survivors, respectively. The results showed that APACHE-IV model underestimated length of stay in our emergency ICU (p<0.001). In addition, the overall observed mortality was 17.8%, while the predicted mortality by APACHE-IV model was 21%. Therefore, there was an overestimation of predicted mortality by APACHE-IV model, with an absolute difference of 3.2% (p=0.036). Conclusion: The findings showed that APACHE-IV was a poor predictor of length of stay and mortality rate in emergency ICU. Therefore, specific models based on big sample sizes of Iranian patients are required to improve accuracy of predictions.
| S-EPMC5710303 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Sex-based disparities in liver transplantation (LT) are incompletely understood. We assessed the role of height, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-Na, and exception points in the disparate access to LT. METHODS:Adults waitlisted for LT at Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network between 2002 and 2013 were included. Covariates associated with likelihood of LT were analyzed by Cox proportional model. In a separate cohort of waitlisted adults with glomerular filtration rate measurement by iothalamate clearance (n = 611), we determined the number of creatinine-derived MELD points in men versus women, across all ranges of glomerular filtration rate. The impact of correcting the MELD score deficit in women on LT was modeled. RESULTS:Among 90 720 Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network registrants, women had higher mortality than men (4 years after listing: 22% vs 18%, P < 0.0001), and lower likelihood of LT (49% vs 58%, P < 0.0001); women were 20% less likely to be transplanted (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.81). Differences in height and MELD exception scores accounted for most of the LT deficit in women (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.89-0.94). Women received between 1 and 2.4 fewer creatinine-derived MELD points than men with similar renal dysfunction. MELD-Na worsened the gender disparity. Addition of 1 or 2 MELD points to women significantly impacted LT access. CONCLUSIONS:Differences in height and MELD exception points explained most of the sex-based disparity in LT. Additionally, MELD score underestimated disease severity in women by up to 2.4 points and MELD Na exacerbated this disparity. The degree of underestimation based on MELD had significant impact on allocation.
| S-EPMC6153066 | biostudies-literature