Dataset Information

Comparison of the ability of the PDD-ICG clearance test, CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na to predict short-term and medium-term mortality in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Various methods, including the indocyanine green (ICG) clearance test, the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (CTP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD combined with serum sodium concentration (MELD-Na), have been used widely in liver function evaluation in patients with end-stage liver disease. In this study, we compared the ability of these methods to predict mortality in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis.

Methods

A total of 98 patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis were included in this study and followed up for 12 months. The ICG-derived measurements (ICG-PDR, ICG-R15, EHBF), CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na were obtained within 2 days after patients' admission and patients' survival at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months was recorded. Receiver operating curve was used to evaluate the ability of these methods to predict mortality in these patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis.

Results

At 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months, the cumulative number of deaths and liver transplant recipients was 12 (12.2%), 17 (17.3%), 21 (21.4%) and 25 (25.5%), respectively. The ICG-derived measurements, CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na of nonsurvivors were significantly different compared with that in survivors. All methods yielded viable values in predicting short-term and medium-term prognosis for patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis, with most area under the curve exceeding 0.8. Moreover, the ICG-derived measurements showed a significant correlation with that of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na.

Conclusion

All four methods, ICG clearance test, CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na, provided reliable prediction of mortality in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis for both short-term and medium-term prognosis.

SUBMITTER: Cheng XP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4777221 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Comparison of the ability of the PDD-ICG clearance test, CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na to predict short-term and medium-term mortality in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis.

Cheng Xiang-Pu XP Zhao Jing J Chen Yu Y Meng Fan-Kun FK Xu Bin B Yu Hong-Wei HW Meng Qing-Hua QH Liu Yan-Min YM Zhang Shi-Bin SB Meng Sha S Zhang Jing-Yun JY Zhang Jin-Yan JY Duan Zhong-Ping ZP Zheng Su-Jun SJ

European journal of gastroenterology & hepatology 20160401 4

<h4>Objective</h4>Various methods, including the indocyanine green (ICG) clearance test, the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (CTP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD combined with serum sodium concentration (MELD-Na), have been used widely in liver function evaluation in patients with end-stage liver disease. In this study, we compared the ability of these methods to predict mortality in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis.<h4>Methods</h4>A total of 98 patients with deco ...[more]

PMID: 26649802

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Project description:BackgroundControversy exists regarding the best predictive model of liver transplant waiting list (WL) mortality. Models for end-stage liver disease-glomerular filtration rate assessment in liver disease (MELD-GRAIL) and MELD-GRAIL-Na were recently described to provide better prognostication, particularly in females. We evaluated the performance of these scores compared to MELD and MELD-Na.MethodsConsecutive patients with cirrhosis waitlisted for liver transplant from 1998 to 2017 were examined in this single-center study. The primary outcome was 90-d WL mortality. MELD, MELD-Na, MELD-GRAIL, and MELD-GRAIL-Na at the time of WL registration were compared. Model discrimination was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves and Harrell's C-index after fitting Cox models. Model calibration was examined with Grønnesby and Borgan's modification of the Hosmer-Lemeshow formula and by comparing predicted/observed outcomes across model strata.ResultsThe study population comprised 1108 patients with a median age of 53.5 (interquartile range 48-59) y and male predominance (74.9%). All models had excellent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the primary outcome (MELD 0.89, MELD-Na 0.91, MELD-GRAIL 0.89, MELD-GRAIL-Na 0.89; all comparisons P > 0.05). Youden index cutoffs for 90-d mortality were as follows: MELD, 19; MELD-Na, 22; MELD-GRAIL, 18; and MELD-GRAIL-Na, 17. Variables associated with 90-d mortality on multivariable Cox regression were sodium, bilirubin, creatinine, and international normalized ratio. There were no differences in model discrimination using Harrell's C-index. All models were well calibrated; however, divergence between observed and predicted mortality was noted with scores ≥25.ConclusionThere were no demonstrable differences in discrimination or calibration of GRAIL-based models compared with MELD or MELD-Na in our cohort. This suggests that GRAIL-based models may not have meaningful improvements in discriminatory ability when applied to other settings.

Project description:Background and aimsAccurate assessment of the risk of mortality following a cirrhosis-related admission can enable health-care providers to identify high-risk patients and modify treatment plans to decrease the risk of mortality.MethodsWe developed a post-discharge mortality prediction model for patients with a cirrhosis-related admission using a population of 314,292 patients who received care either at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) or Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH) between 1992 and 2010. We extracted 68 variables from the electronic medical records (EMRs), including demographics, laboratory values, diagnosis codes, and medications. We then used a regularized logistic regression to select the most informative variables and created a risk score that comprises the selected variables. To evaluate the potential for generalizability of our score, we applied it on all cirrhosis-related admissions between 2010 and 2015 at an independent EMR data source of more than 18 million patients, pooled from different health-care systems with EMRs. We calculated the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) to assess prediction performance.ResultsWe identified 4,781 cirrhosis-related admissions at MGH/BWH hospitals, of which 778 resulted in death within 90 days of discharge. Nine variables were the most effective predictors for 90-day mortality, and these included all MELD-Na's components, as well as albumin, total cholesterol, white blood cell count, age, and length of stay. Applying our nine-variable risk score (denoted as "MELD-Plus") resulted in an improvement over MELD and MELD-Na scores in several prediction models. On the MGH/BWH 90-day model, MELD-Plus improved the performance of MELD-Na by 11.4% (0.78 [95% CI, 0.75-0.81] versus 0.70 [95% CI, 0.66-0.73]). In the MGH/BWH approximate 1-year model, MELD-Plus improved the performance of MELD-Na by 8.3% (0.78 [95% CI, 0.76-0.79] versus 0.72 [95% CI, 0.71-0.73]). Performance improvement was similar when the novel MELD-Plus risk score was applied to an independent database; when considering 24,042 cirrhosis-related admissions, MELD-Plus improved the performance of MELD-Na by 16.9% (0.69 [95% CI, 0.69-0.70] versus 0.59 [95% CI, 0.58-0.60]).ConclusionsWe developed a new risk score, MELD-Plus that accurately stratifies the short-term mortality of patients with established cirrhosis, following a hospital admission. Our findings demonstrate that using a small set of easily accessible structured variables can help identify novel predictors of outcomes in cirrhosis patients and improve the performance of widely used traditional risk scores.

Dataset Information

Comparison of the ability of the PDD-ICG clearance test, CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na to predict short-term and medium-term mortality in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Comparison of the ability of the PDD-ICG clearance test, CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na to predict short-term and medium-term mortality in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis.

Similar Datasets

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