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Modeling antibiotic treatment in hospitals: A systematic approach shows benefits of combination therapy over cycling, mixing, and mono-drug therapies.

ABSTRACT: Multiple treatment strategies are available for empiric antibiotic therapy in hospitals, but neither clinical studies nor theoretical investigations have yielded a clear picture when which strategy is optimal and why. Extending earlier work of others and us, we present a mathematical model capturing treatment strategies using two drugs, i.e the multi-drug therapies referred to as cycling, mixing, and combination therapy, as well as monotherapy with either drug. We randomly sample a large parameter space to determine the conditions determining success or failure of these strategies. We find that combination therapy tends to outperform the other treatment strategies. By using linear discriminant analysis and particle swarm optimization, we find that the most important parameters determining success or failure of combination therapy relative to the other treatment strategies are the de novo rate of emergence of double resistance in patients infected with sensitive bacteria and the fitness costs associated with double resistance. The rate at which double resistance is imported into the hospital via patients admitted from the outside community has little influence, as all treatment strategies are affected equally. The parameter sets for which combination therapy fails tend to fall into areas with low biological plausibility as they are characterised by very high rates of de novo emergence of resistance to both drugs compared to a single drug, and the cost of double resistance is considerably smaller than the sum of the costs of single resistance.

SUBMITTER: Tepekule B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5600366 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling antibiotic treatment in hospitals: A systematic approach shows benefits of combination therapy over cycling, mixing, and mono-drug therapies.

Tepekule Burcu B Uecker Hildegard H Derungs Isabel I Frenoy Antoine A Bonhoeffer Sebastian S

PLoS computational biology 20170915 9

Multiple treatment strategies are available for empiric antibiotic therapy in hospitals, but neither clinical studies nor theoretical investigations have yielded a clear picture when which strategy is optimal and why. Extending earlier work of others and us, we present a mathematical model capturing treatment strategies using two drugs, i.e the multi-drug therapies referred to as cycling, mixing, and combination therapy, as well as monotherapy with either drug. We randomly sample a large paramet ...[more]

PMID: 28915236

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Project description:The rise of resistance together with the shortage of new broad-spectrum antibiotics underlines the urgency of optimizing the use of available drugs to minimize disease burden. Theoretical studies suggest that coordinating empirical usage of antibiotics in a hospital ward can contain the spread of resistance. However, theoretical and clinical studies came to different conclusions regarding the usefulness of rotating first-line therapy (cycling). Here, we performed a quantitative pathogen-specific meta-analysis of clinical studies comparing cycling to standard practice. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar and identified 46 clinical studies addressing the effect of cycling on nosocomial infections, of which 11 met our selection criteria. We employed a method for multivariate meta-analysis using incidence rates as endpoints and find that cycling reduced the incidence rate/1000 patient days of both total infections by 4.95 [9.43-0.48] and resistant infections by 7.2 [14.00-0.44]. This positive effect was observed in most pathogens despite a large variance between individual species. Our findings remain robust in uni- and multivariate metaregressions. We used theoretical models that reflect various infections and hospital settings to compare cycling to random assignment to different drugs (mixing). We make the realistic assumption that therapy is changed when first line treatment is ineffective, which we call "adjustable cycling/mixing". In concordance with earlier theoretical studies, we find that in strict regimens, cycling is detrimental. However, in adjustable regimens single resistance is suppressed and cycling is successful in most settings. Both a meta-regression and our theoretical model indicate that "adjustable cycling" is especially useful to suppress emergence of multiple resistance. While our model predicts that cycling periods of one month perform well, we expect that too long cycling periods are detrimental. Our results suggest that "adjustable cycling" suppresses multiple resistance and warrants further investigations that allow comparing various diseases and hospital settings.

Project description:As antimicrobial resistance increases, it is crucial to develop new treatment strategies to counter the emerging threat. In this paper, we consider combination therapies involving conventional antibiotics and debridement, coupled with a novel anti-adhesion therapy, and their use in the treatment of antimicrobial resistant burn wound infections. Our models predict that anti-adhesion-antibiotic-debridement combination therapies can eliminate a bacterial infection in cases where each treatment in isolation would fail. Antibiotics are assumed to have a bactericidal mode of action, killing bacteria, while debridement involves physically cleaning a wound (e.g. with a cloth); removing free bacteria. Anti-adhesion therapy can take a number of forms. Here we consider adhesion inhibitors consisting of polystyrene microbeads chemically coupled to a protein known as multivalent adhesion molecule 7, an adhesin which mediates the initial stages of attachment of many bacterial species to host cells. Adhesion inhibitors competitively inhibit bacteria from binding to host cells, thus rendering them susceptible to removal through debridement. An ordinary differential equation model is developed and the antibiotic-related parameters are fitted against new in vitro data gathered for the present study. The model is used to predict treatment outcomes and to suggest optimal treatment strategies. Our model predicts that anti-adhesion and antibiotic therapies will combine synergistically, producing a combined effect which is often greater than the sum of their individual effects, and that anti-adhesion-antibiotic-debridement combination therapy will be more effective than any of the treatment strategies used in isolation. Further, the use of inhibitors significantly reduces the minimum dose of antibiotics required to eliminate an infection, reducing the chances that bacteria will develop increased resistance. Lastly, we use our model to suggest treatment regimens capable of eliminating bacterial infections within clinically relevant timescales.

Project description:Background: Olanzapine is used to treat schizophrenia and bipolar disorder in women of childbearing age. Continuation of psychotropic medications throughout pregnancy and lactation is often required as cessation could be dangerous for both mother and child. However, there is a lack of information on the transfer of these drugs into the developing brain. Methods: Sprague Dawley rats at three developmental ages: embryonic day E19, postnatal day P4 and non-pregnant adult females were administered unlabelled or radiolabelled ( 3H) olanzapine (0.15 mg/kg) either as monotherapy or in combination with each of seven other common medications. Similar injections were administered to pregnant E19 females to investigate placental transfer. Olanzapine in plasma, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and brain was measured by liquid scintillation counting after a single dose (acute) or following 5 days of treatment (prolonged). Results: Olanzapine entry into brain and CSF was not age-dependent. Prolonged olanzapine treatment reduced placental transfer from 53% to 46% (p<0.05). Co-administration of digoxin or lamotrigine with olanzapine increased its entry into the fetal brain, whereas paracetamol decreased its entry into the CSF. Placental transfer of olanzapine was increased by co-treatment with cimetidine and digoxin, whereas co-treatment with lamotrigine, paracetamol or valproate led to a substantial decrease. Repeated co-treatment of digoxin and olanzapine increased olanzapine transfer into the brain and CSF, but not across the placenta. Overall entry of olanzapine from maternally administered drugs into the fetal brain was higher after combination therapy with cimetidine and digoxin. Conclusions: Co-administration of olanzapine with some commonly used drugs affected its entry into the fetus and its developing brain to a greater extent than in adults. It appears that protection of the fetal brain for these drugs primarily comes from the placenta rather than from the fetal brain barriers. Results suggest that drug combinations should be used with caution particularly during pregnancy.

Project description:Antibiotics are the major tool for treating bacterial infections. Rising antibiotic resistance, however, calls for a better use of antibiotics. While classical recommendations favor long and aggressive treatments, more recent clinical trials advocate for moderate regimens. In this debate, two axes of 'aggression' have typically been conflated: treatment intensity (dose) and treatment duration. The third dimension of treatment timing along each individual's infection course has rarely been addressed. By using a generic mathematical model of bacterial infection controlled by immune response, we examine how the relative effectiveness of antibiotic treatment varies with its timing, duration and antibiotic kill rate. We show that short or long treatments may both be beneficial depending on treatment onset, the target criterion for success and on antibiotic efficacy. This results from the dynamic trade-off between immune response build-up and resistance risk in acute, self-limiting infections, and uncertainty relating symptoms to infection variables. We show that in our model early optimal treatments tend to be 'short and strong', while late optimal treatments tend to be 'mild and long'. This suggests a shift in the aggression axis depending on the timing of treatment. We find that any specific optimal treatment schedule may perform more poorly if evaluated by other criteria, or under different host-specific conditions. Our results suggest that major advances in antibiotic stewardship must come from a deeper empirical understanding of bacterial infection processes in individual hosts. To guide rational therapy, mathematical models need to be constrained by data, including a better quantification of personal disease trajectory in humans. Lay summary: Bacterial infections are becoming more difficult to treat worldwide because bacteria are becoming resistant to the antibiotics used. Addressing this problem requires a better understanding of how treatment along with other host factors impact antibiotic resistance. Until recently, most theoretical research has focused on the importance of antibiotic dosing on antibiotic resistance, however, duration and timing of treatment remain less explored. Here, we use a mathematical model of a generic bacterial infection to study three aspects of treatment: treatment dose/efficacy (defined by the antibiotic kill rate), duration, and timing, and their impact on several infection endpoints. We show that short and long treatment success strongly depends on when treatment begins (defined by the symptom threshold), the target criterion to optimize, and on antibiotic efficacy. We find that if administered early in an infection, "strong and short" therapy performs better, while if treatment begins at higher bacterial densities, a "mild and long" course of antibiotics is favored. In the model host immune defenses are key in preventing relapses, controlling antibiotic resistant bacteria and increasing the effectiveness of moderate intervention. In order to improve rational treatments of human infections, we call for a better quantification of individual disease trajectories in bacteria-immunity space.

Project description:BackgroundRepeated rotation of empiric antibiotic treatment strategies is hypothesized to reduce antibiotic resistance. Clinical rotation studies failed to change unit-wide prevalence of antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB) carriage, including an international cluster-randomized crossover study. Unit-wide effects may differ from individual effects due to "ecological fallacy". This post-hoc analysis of a cluster-randomized crossover study assesses differences between cycling and mixing rotation strategies in acquisition of carriage with Gram-negative ARB in individual patients.MethodsThis was a controlled cluster-randomized crossover study in 7 ICUs in 5 European countries. Clinical cultures taken as routine care were used for endpoint assessment. Patients with a first negative culture and at least one culture collected in total were included. Community acquisitions (2 days of admission or less) were excluded. Primary outcome was ICU-acquisition of Enterobacterales species with reduced susceptibility to: third- or fourth generation cephalosporins or piperacillin-tazobactam, and Acinetobacter species and Pseudomonas aeruginosa with reduced susceptibility for piperacillin-tazobactam or carbapenems. Cycling (altering first-line empiric therapy for Gram-negative bacteria, every other 6-weeks), to mixing (changing antibiotic type every empiric antibiotic course). Rotated antibiotics were third- or fourth generation cephalosporins, piperacillin-tazobactam and carbapenems.ResultsFor this analysis 1,613 admissions were eligible (855 and 758 during cycling and mixing, respectively), with 16,437 microbiological cultures obtained. Incidences of acquisition with ARB during ICU-stay were 7.3% (n = 62) and 5.1% (n = 39) during cycling and mixing, respectively (p-value 0.13), after a mean of 17.7 (median 15) and 20.8 (median 13) days. Adjusted odds ratio for acquisition of ARB carriage during mixing was 0.62 (95% CI 0.38 to 1.00). Acquired carriage with ARB were Enterobacterales species (n = 61), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (n = 38) and Acinetobacter species (n = 20), with no statistically significant differences between interventions.ConclusionsThere was no statistically significant difference in individual patients' risk of acquiring carriage with Gram-negative ARB during cycling and mixing. These findings substantiate the absence of difference between cycling and mixing on the epidemiology of Gram-negative ARB in ICU.Trial registrationThis trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, registered 10 January 2011, NCT01293071.

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Modeling antibiotic treatment in hospitals: A systematic approach shows benefits of combination therapy over cycling, mixing, and mono-drug therapies.

Publications

Modeling antibiotic treatment in hospitals: A systematic approach shows benefits of combination therapy over cycling, mixing, and mono-drug therapies.

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