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Modelling the drivers of the spread of Plasmodium falciparum hrp2 gene deletions in sub-Saharan Africa.


ABSTRACT: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have transformed malaria diagnosis. The most prevalent P. falciparum RDTs detect histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2). However, pfhrp2 gene deletions yielding false-negative RDTs, first reported in South America in 2010, have been confirmed in Africa and Asia. We developed a mathematical model to explore the potential for RDT-led diagnosis to drive selection of pfhrp2-deleted parasites. Low malaria prevalence and high frequencies of people seeking treatment resulted in the greatest selection pressure. Calibrating our model against confirmed pfhrp2-deletions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, we estimate a starting frequency of 6% pfhrp2-deletion prior to RDT introduction. Furthermore, the patterns observed necessitate a degree of selection driven by the introduction of PfHRP2-based RDT-guided treatment. Combining this with parasite prevalence and treatment coverage estimates, we map the model-predicted spread of pfhrp2-deletion, and identify the geographic regions in which surveillance for pfhrp2-deletion should be prioritised.

SUBMITTER: Watson OJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5602420 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling the drivers of the spread of <i>Plasmodium falciparum hrp2</i> gene deletions in sub-Saharan Africa.

Watson Oliver J OJ   Slater Hannah C HC   Verity Robert R   Parr Jonathan B JB   Mwandagalirwa Melchior K MK   Tshefu Antoinette A   Meshnick Steven R SR   Ghani Azra C AC  

eLife 20170824


Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have transformed malaria diagnosis. The most prevalent <i>P. falciparum</i> RDTs detect histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2). However, <i>pfhrp2</i> gene deletions yielding false-negative RDTs, first reported in South America in 2010, have been confirmed in Africa and Asia. We developed a mathematical model to explore the potential for RDT-led diagnosis to drive selection of <i>pfhrp2</i>-deleted parasites. Low malaria prevalence and high frequencies of people seeking  ...[more]

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