Dataset Information

Advising caution in studying seasonal oscillations in crime rates.

ABSTRACT: Most types of crime are known to exhibit seasonal oscillations, yet the annual variations in the amplitude of this seasonality and their causes are still uncertain. Using a large collection of data from the Houston and Los Angeles Metropolitan areas, we extract and study the seasonal variations in aggravated assault, break in and theft from vehicles, burglary, grand theft auto, rape, robbery, theft, and vandalism for many years from the raw daily data. Our approach allows us to see various long term and seasonal trends and aberrations in crime rates that have not been reported before. We then apply an ecologically motivated stochastic differential equation to reproduce the data. Our model relies only on social interaction terms, and not on any exigent factors, to reproduce both the seasonality, and the seasonal aberrations observed in our data set. Furthermore, the stochasticity in the system is sufficient to reproduce the variations seen in the seasonal oscillations from year to year. Researchers should be very careful about trying to correlate these oscillations with external factors.

SUBMITTER: Dong K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5609764 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Advising caution in studying seasonal oscillations in crime rates.

Dong Kun K Cao Yunbai Y Siercke Beatrice B Wilber Matthew M McCalla Scott G SG

PloS one 20170922 9

Most types of crime are known to exhibit seasonal oscillations, yet the annual variations in the amplitude of this seasonality and their causes are still uncertain. Using a large collection of data from the Houston and Los Angeles Metropolitan areas, we extract and study the seasonal variations in aggravated assault, break in and theft from vehicles, burglary, grand theft auto, rape, robbery, theft, and vandalism for many years from the raw daily data. Our approach allows us to see various long ...[more]

PMID: 28938022

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Project description:IntroductionAlthough per capita crime has generally fallen over the period which coincides with the obesity epidemic, it has not fallen uniformly across communities. It also has not fallen enough to allay fears on the part of parents. Over the past 30 years, technological changes have made the indoor alternatives to playing outside, where children are more vulnerable to criminal activity, more enjoyable (cable TV, video games, and the internet) and comfortable (the spread of air conditioning to low income neighborhoods). We determined whether indoor sedentary behavior patterns are associated with community crime statistics. 4th graders in the U.S. are typically 9 or 10 years old.MethodsWe used data from the 2004-2005 Texas School Physical Activity and Nutrition (SPAN) survey linked with U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics data for the years 2000 through 2005 and Texas State data on sexual offenders. The probability-based sample included a total of 7,907 children in grade four. Multistage probability sampling weights were used. The dependent variables included were hours of TV watching, video game playing, computer use and total indoor sedentary behavior after school. Incremental Relative Rates were computed for community crime rates including robberies, all violent crimes, murders, assaults, property crimes, rapes, burglaries, larcenies and motor vehicle thefts as well as for sexual offenders living in the neighborhood. The neighborhood refers to the areas where the students at each school live. In the case of sexual offenders, sexual offenders per capita are estimated using the per capita rate in the zip code of the school attended; all other crime statistics are estimated by the crimes per capita in the police department jurisdiction covering the school attended. After controlling for sex, age, and African-American and Hispanic, cross-sectional associations were determined using multivariate Poisson regression.Results4th grade boys were more likely to play video games in communities with increased per 100 population rates of larceny and burglary as well as in communities with increased per capita sexual offenders; 4th grade girls were more likely to watch television in communities with increased per capita sexual offenders. While 4th grade girls were more likely to watch TV in communities with increased per capita sex offenders, they were less likely to use computers. Per capita sexual offenders were negatively related to computer use amongst 4th grade girls.ConclusionBy combining community crime and cross-sectional individual level data on indoor sedentary behavior, we found that there is an association between community crimes/sex offender rates and certain types of indoor sedentary behavior. The development of technologies in recent decades which makes supervising children easier indoors, where children are much less vulnerable to crime, may be contributing to the epidemic of childhood obesity.

Dataset Information

Advising caution in studying seasonal oscillations in crime rates.

Publications

Advising caution in studying seasonal oscillations in crime rates.

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