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Future-oriented tweets predict lower county-level HIV prevalence in the United States.


ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:Future orientation promotes health and well-being at the individual level. Computerized text analysis of a dataset encompassing billions of words used across the United States on Twitter tested whether community-level rates of future-oriented messages correlated with lower human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) rates and moderated the association between behavioral risk indicators and HIV. METHOD:Over 150 million tweets mapped to U.S. counties were analyzed using 2 methods of text analysis. First, county-level HIV rates (cases per 100,000) were regressed on aggregate usage of future-oriented language (e.g., will, gonna). A second data-driven method regressed HIV rates on individual words and phrases. RESULTS:Results showed that counties with higher rates of future tense on Twitter had fewer HIV cases, independent of strong structural predictors of HIV such as population density. Future-oriented messages also appeared to buffer health risk: Sexually transmitted infection rates and references to risky behavior on Twitter were associated with higher HIV prevalence in all counties except those with high rates of future orientation. Data-driven analyses likewise showed that words and phrases referencing the future (e.g., tomorrow, would be) correlated with lower HIV prevalence. CONCLUSION:Integrating big data approaches to text analysis and epidemiology with psychological theory may provide an inexpensive, real-time method of anticipating outbreaks of HIV and etiologically similar diseases.

SUBMITTER: Ireland ME 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5621637 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Future-oriented tweets predict lower county-level HIV prevalence in the United States.

Ireland Molly E ME   Schwartz H Andrew HA   Chen Qijia Q   Ungar Lyle H LH   Albarracín Dolores D  

Health psychology : official journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association 20151201


<h4>Objective</h4>Future orientation promotes health and well-being at the individual level. Computerized text analysis of a dataset encompassing billions of words used across the United States on Twitter tested whether community-level rates of future-oriented messages correlated with lower human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) rates and moderated the association between behavioral risk indicators and HIV.<h4>Method</h4>Over 150 million tweets mapped to U.S. counties were analyzed using 2 methods o  ...[more]

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