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Changing the South African national antiretroviral therapy guidelines: The role of cost modelling.

ABSTRACT: We were tasked by the South African Department of Health to assess the cost implications to the largest ART programme in the world of adopting sets of ART guidelines issued by the World Health Organization between 2010 and 2016.Using data from large South African ART clinics (n = 24,244 patients), projections of patients in need of ART, and cost data from bottom-up cost analyses, we constructed a population-level health-state transition model with 6-monthly transitions between health states depending on patients' age, CD4 cell count/ percentage, and, for adult first-line ART, time on treatment.For each set of guidelines, the modelled increase in patient numbers as a result of prevalence and uptake was substantially more than the increase resulting from additional eligibility. Under each set of guidelines, the number of people on ART was projected to increase by 31-133% over the next seven years, and cost by 84-175%, while increased eligibility led to 1-26% more patients, and 1-17% higher cost. The projected increases in treatment cost due to the 2010 and the 2015 WHO guidelines could be offset in their entirety by the introduction of cost-saving measures such as opening the drug tenders for international competition and task-shifting. Under universal treatment, annual costs of the treatment programme will decrease for the first time from 2024 onwards.Annual budgetary requirements for ART will continue to increase in South Africa until universal treatment is taken to full scale. Model results were instrumental in changing South African ART guidelines, more than tripling the population on treatment between 2009 and 2017, and reducing the per-patient cost of treatment by 64%.

SUBMITTER: Meyer-Rath G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5662079 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Changing the South African national antiretroviral therapy guidelines: The role of cost modelling.

Meyer-Rath Gesine G Johnson Leigh F LF Pillay Yogan Y Blecher Mark M Brennan Alana T AT Long Lawrence L Moultrie Harry H Sanne Ian I Fox Matthew P MP Rosen Sydney S

PloS one 20171030 10

<h4>Background</h4>We were tasked by the South African Department of Health to assess the cost implications to the largest ART programme in the world of adopting sets of ART guidelines issued by the World Health Organization between 2010 and 2016.<h4>Methods</h4>Using data from large South African ART clinics (n = 24,244 patients), projections of patients in need of ART, and cost data from bottom-up cost analyses, we constructed a population-level health-state transition model with 6-monthly tra ...[more]

PMID: 29084275

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Project description:Background:Studies of antiretroviral therapy (ART) use during pregnancy in HIV-infected women have suggested that ART exposure may be associated with adverse birth outcomes. However, there are few data from sub-Saharan Africa where HIV is most common, and few studies involving the World Health Organization's (WHO's) recommended first-line regimens. Methods:We enrolled consecutive HIV-infected pregnant women and a comparator cohort of uninfected women at a primary-level antenatal care facility in Cape Town, South Africa. Gestational assessment combined clinical history, examination and ultrasonography; outcomes included preterm (PTD), low birthweight (LBW) and small for gestational age (SGA) deliveries. In analysis we compared birth outcomes between HIV-infected and -uninfected women, and HIV-infected women who initiated ART before vs during pregnancy. Results:In 1554 women (mean age 29 years) with live singleton births at time of analysis, 82% were HIV-infected, 92% of whom received a first-line regimen of tenofovir, emtricitabine and efavirenz. Overall, higher levels of PTD [22% vs 13%; odds ratio (OR) 1.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34, 2.82] and LBW (14% vs 9%; OR 1.62, 95% CI: 1.05, 2.29) were observed in HIV-infected vs uninfected women, although SGA deliveries were similar (9% vs 11%; OR 1.06, 95% CI: 0.71, 1.61). Adjusting for demographic characteristics and HIV disease measures, HIV-infected (vs HIV-uninfected) women had persistently increased odds of PTD [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.03; CI 1.33, 3.10]; associations with LBW were attenuated (AOR 1.47; CI 0.90, 2.40). Among all HIV-infected women, there appeared to be no association between the timing of ART initiation (before or during pregnancy) and adverse birth outcomes. Conclusions:These findings suggest that current WHO-recommended ART regimens appear relatively safe in pregnancy, although more data are required to understand the aetiology of preterm delivery in HIV-infected women using ART.

Project description:BackgroundWe describe CD4 count recovery among HIV positive individuals who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) with and without severe immune suppression using complete laboratory data from South Africa's national HIV treatment programme between 2010 and 2014 and discuss implications for CD4 count monitoring.MethodsRetrospective analysis of routinely collected laboratory data from South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS). A probabilistic record linkage algorithm was used to create a cohort of HIV positive individuals who initiated ART between 2010 and 2014 based on timing of CD4 count and viral load measurements. A CD4 count < 50 copies/μl at ART initiation was considered severe immunosuppression. A multivariable piecewise mixed-effects linear regression model adjusting for age, gender, year of starting ART, viral suppression in follow up and province was used to predict CD4 counts during follow up.Results1,070,900 individuals had evidence of starting ART during 2010-2014 and met the criteria for inclusion in the cohort -46.6% starting ART with CD4 < 200 cells/μl and 10.1% with CD4 < 50 cells/ μl. For individuals with CD4 counts < 200 cells/μl, predicted CD4 counts > 200 cells/μl, >350 cells/μl and >500 cells/μl corresponded with mean follow up durations of 1.5 years (standard deviation [s.d] 1.1), 1.9years (s.d 1.2) and 2.1 years (s.d 1.3 years). For those with CD4 counts < 50 cells/μl, predicted CD4 count above these threshold corresponded with mean follow up durations of 2.5 years (s.d 0.9 years), 4.4 years (s.d 0.4 years) and 5.0 years (s.d 0.1years) for recovery to the same thresholds. CD4 count recovery varied mostly with duration on ART, CD4 count at the start of ART and gender.ConclusionFor individuals starting with ART with severe immunosuppression, CD4 recovery to 200cells/μl did not occur or took longer than 12 month for significant proportions. CD4 monitoring and interventions recommended for advanced HIV disease should continue until full recovery.

Project description:Many national antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes encourage providers to identify and address baseline factors associated with poor treatment outcomes, including modifiable adherence-related behaviours, before initiating ART. However, evidence on such predictors is scarce, and providers judgement may often be inaccurate. To help address this evidence gap, this observational cohort study examined baseline factors potentially predictive of poor treatment outcomes in two ART programmes in South Africa, with a particular focus on determinants of adherence.Treatment-naïve patients starting ART were enrolled from a community and a workplace ART programme. Potential baseline predictors associated with poor treatment outcomes (defined as viral load > 400 copies/ml or having discontinued treatment by six months) were assessed using logistic regression. Exposure variables were organised for regression analysis using a hierarchical framework.38/227 (17%) of participants in the community had poor treatment outcomes compared to 47/117 (40%) in the workplace. In the community, predictors of worse outcomes included: drinking more than 20 units of alcohol per week, having no prior experience of chronic medications, and consulting a traditional healer in the past year (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 15.36, 95% CI 3.22-73.27; aOR 2.30, 95%CI 1.00-5.30; aOR 2.27, 95% CI 1.00-5.19 respectively). Being male and knowing someone on ART were associated with better outcomes (aOR 0.25, 95%CI 0.09-0.74; aOR 0.44, 95%CI 0.19-1.01 respectively). In the workplace, predictors of poor treatment outcomes included being uncertain about the health effects of ART and a traditional healer's ability to treat HIV (aOR 7.53, 95%CI 2.02-27.98; aOR 4.40, 95%CI 1.41-13.75 respectively). Longer pre-ART waiting time (2-12 weeks compared to <2 weeks) predicted better treatment outcomes (aOR 0.13, 95% CI 0.03-0.56).Baseline predictors of poor treatment outcomes were largely unique to each programme, likely reflecting different populations and pathways to HIV care. In the workplace, active promotion of HIV testing may have extended ART to individuals who, without provider initiation, would not have spontaneously sought care. As provider-initiated testing makes ART available to individuals less motivated to seek care, patients may need additional adherence support, especially addressing uncertainty about the health benefits of ART.

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Changing the South African national antiretroviral therapy guidelines: The role of cost modelling.

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Changing the South African national antiretroviral therapy guidelines: The role of cost modelling.

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