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The interplay of various sources of noise on reliability of species distribution models hinges on ecological specialisation.

ABSTRACT: Digitized species occurrence data provide an unprecedented source of information for ecologists and conservationists. Species distribution model (SDM) has become a popular method to utilise these data for understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of species, and for modelling biodiversity patterns. Our objective is to study the impact of noise in species occurrence data (namely sample size and positional accuracy) on the performance and reliability of SDM, considering the multiplicative impact of SDM algorithms, species specialisation, and grid resolution. We created a set of four 'virtual' species characterized by different specialisation levels. For each of these species, we built the suitable habitat models using five algorithms at two grid resolutions, with varying sample sizes and different levels of positional accuracy. We assessed the performance and reliability of the SDM according to classic model evaluation metrics (Area Under the Curve and True Skill Statistic) and model agreement metrics (Overall Concordance Correlation Coefficient and geographic niche overlap) respectively. Our study revealed that species specialisation had by far the most dominant impact on the SDM. In contrast to previous studies, we found that for widespread species, low sample size and low positional accuracy were acceptable, and useful distribution ranges could be predicted with as few as 10 species occurrences. Range predictions for narrow-ranged species, however, were sensitive to sample size and positional accuracy, such that useful distribution ranges required at least 20 species occurrences. Against expectations, the MAXENT algorithm poorly predicted the distribution of specialist species at low sample size.

SUBMITTER: Soultan A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5683637 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The investigation of spontaneous fluctuations of the blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal has recently been extended from the brain to the spinal cord, where it has stimulated interest from a clinical perspective. A number of resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies have demonstrated robust functional connectivity between the time series of BOLD fluctuations in bilateral dorsal horns and between those in bilateral ventral horns, in line with the functional neuroanatomy of the spinal cord. A necessary step prior to extension to clinical studies is assessing the reliability of such resting-state signals, which we aimed to do here in a group of 45 healthy young adults at the clinically prevalent field strength of 3T. When investigating connectivity in the entire cervical spinal cord, we observed fair to good reliability for dorsal-dorsal and ventral-ventral connectivity, whereas reliability was poor for within- and between-hemicord dorsal-ventral connectivity. Considering how prone spinal cord fMRI is to noise, we extensively investigated the impact of distinct noise sources and made two crucial observations: removal of physiological noise led to a reduction in functional connectivity strength and reliability - due to the removal of stable and participant-specific noise patterns - whereas removal of thermal noise considerably increased the detectability of functional connectivity without a clear influence on reliability. Finally, we also assessed connectivity within spinal cord segments and observed that while the pattern of connectivity was similar to that of whole cervical cord, reliability at the level of single segments was consistently poor. Taken together, our results demonstrate the presence of reliable resting-state functional connectivity in the human spinal cord even after thoroughly accounting for physiological and thermal noise, but at the same time urge caution if focal changes in connectivity (e.g. due to segmental lesions) are to be studied, especially in a longitudinal manner.

Project description:BackgroundPertussis is associated with significant disease burden in children worldwide. In addition to its cyclical nature, resurgences of pertussis cases, hospitalizations and deaths have been reported by many countries. We describe the dynamics of pertussis in Brazil, a middle-income country that has experienced a resurgence and that provides good quality data to allow building a dynamic transmission disease model.MethodsWe conducted a descriptive analysis of pertussis burden considering data from the national disease surveillance system, national hospitalization information system and national mortality registry. Study period was 2000-2016. Absolute numbers and rates per 100,000 inhabitants over time, by age sub-groups and geographical regions are presented.ResultsFrom 2000 to 2016, a total of 37,299 reported pertussis cases, 25,240 hospitalizations, and 601 deaths due to pertussis were reported. Although the outcomes - pertussis cases, hospitalizations, and deaths - come from independent information systems, our results document low disease burden with periodic increases every 3-4?years during the years 2000-2010, followed by a sharp increase which peaked in 2014. In both periods, disease burden is concentrated in young children, while its more serious outcomes - hospitalizations and deaths, are concentrated in infants. Pre-outbreak and outbreak disease burden as well as timing of peak during the outbreak period vary by states and within geographical regions, representing valuable resources of data for modelling purposes.ConclusionConsistent disease burden patterns were observed over time in Brazil using a variety of data sources. Given the scarcity of good epidemiological data on pertussis available from low- and middle-income countries, our reported data provide valuable information for the assessment of the public health impact and cost-effectiveness modelling studies of newer strategies to prevent and control pertussis. These data were used to build and calibrate a national dynamic transmission model, which was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of maternal immunization. Clinical Trial registry name and registration number: Not applicable.

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The interplay of various sources of noise on reliability of species distribution models hinges on ecological specialisation.

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