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After the epidemic: Zika virus projections for Latin America and the Caribbean.

ABSTRACT: Zika is one of the most challenging emergent vector-borne diseases, yet its future public health impact remains unclear. Zika was of little public health concern until recent reports of its association with congenital syndromes. By 3 August 2017 ?217,000 Zika cases and ?3,400 cases of associated congenital syndrome were reported in Latin America and the Caribbean. Some modelling exercises suggest that Zika virus infection could become endemic in agreement with recent declarations from the The World Health Organisation.We produced high-resolution spatially-explicit projections of Zika cases, associated congenital syndromes and monetary costs for Latin America and the Caribbean now that the epidemic phase of the disease appears to be over. In contrast to previous studies which have adopted a modelling approach to map Zika potential, we project case numbers using a statistical approach based upon reported dengue case data as a Zika surrogate. Our results indicate that ?12.3 (0.7-162.3) million Zika cases could be expected across Latin America and the Caribbean every year, leading to ?64.4 (0.2-5159.3) thousand cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome and ?4.7 (0.0-116.3) thousand cases of microcephaly. The economic burden of these neurological sequelae are estimated to be USD ?2.3 (USD 0-159.3) billion per annum.Zika is likely to have significant public health consequences across Latin America and the Caribbean in years to come. Our projections inform regional and federal health authorities, offering an opportunity to adapt to this public health challenge.

SUBMITTER: Colon-Gonzalez FJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5683651 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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After the epidemic: Zika virus projections for Latin America and the Caribbean.

Colón-González Felipe J FJ Peres Carlos A CA Steiner São Bernardo Christine C Hunter Paul R PR Lake Iain R IR

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20171101 11

<h4>Background</h4>Zika is one of the most challenging emergent vector-borne diseases, yet its future public health impact remains unclear. Zika was of little public health concern until recent reports of its association with congenital syndromes. By 3 August 2017 ∼217,000 Zika cases and ∼3,400 cases of associated congenital syndrome were reported in Latin America and the Caribbean. Some modelling exercises suggest that Zika virus infection could become endemic in agreement with recent declarati ...[more]

PMID: 29091713

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Project description:BackgroundThe recent Zika virus (ZIKAV) epidemics disclosed a major public health threat and a scientific and technological (S&T) challenge. The lessons learned from the S&T response of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries are critical to inform further research and guide scientific investments. The present study aimed to assess how new S&T knowledge produced and disseminated regionally can contribute to address global health challenges.MethodsScientometric and social network analysis methods were used to assess the LAC scientific contribution and potential technological development on ZIKAV up to December 2017. ZIKAV-related publications were retrieved from the Web of Science, Scopus, and PubMed databases. Regionally published articles were obtained from SciELO (Scientific Electronic Library Online) and LILACS (Literature in the Health Sciences in Latin America and the Caribbean) databases. Patent registries were retrieved using Orbit Intelligence and Derwent Innovation. Records from each database were individually downloaded, integrated, standardized and analyzed.ResultsWe retrieved 5421 ZIKAV-related publications, revealing a sharp increase from 2015 onwards. LAC countries accounted for 20% of all publications and Brazil was among the top three most central countries in the global network for ZIKAV research. A total of 274 patent families backed up by experimental evidence were retrieved. Only 5% were filed by LAC assignees, all of them based in Brazil. The largest contribution of LAC research was on the clinical manifestations of the ZIKAV infection, along with vector control, which was also the main focus of patents.ConclusionsOur analysis offered a comprehensive overview of ZIKAV's research and development and showed that (i) LAC countries had a key role in generating and disseminating scientific knowledge on ZIKAV; (ii) LAC countries have expressively contributed to research on ZIKAV clinical manifestations; (iii) the Brazilian scientific community was potentially very effective in knowledge sharing and diffusion in the ZIKAV research network; (iv) Brazil was the single LAC country filing patents, mostly represented by independent inventors and low-tech patents. The paper advocates the need for a continued interdisciplinary approach to improve LAC countries ability to prevent, prepare for and control future outbreaks.

Project description:BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, with serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and the lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries.MethodsOur analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 90 major cities within 35 countries. Seasonality was determined by spatio-temporal estimates of Aedes aegypti vectorial capacity. We used country and state-level data from 2015 to mid-2017 to infer key model parameters, country-specific disease reporting rates, and the 2018 projected incidence. A 10-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate parameter estimates to out-of-sample epidemic trajectories.ResultsThere was limited transmission in 2015, but in 2016 and 2017 there was sufficient opportunity for wide-spread ZIKV transmission in most cities, resulting in the depletion of susceptible individuals. We predict that the highest number of cases in 2018 would present within some Brazilian States (Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), Colombia and French Guiana, but the estimated number of cases were no more than a few hundred. Model estimates of the timing of the peak in incidence were correlated (p?<?0.05) with the reported peak in incidence. The reporting rate varied across countries, with lower reporting rates for those with only confirmed cases compared to those who reported both confirmed and suspected cases.ConclusionsThe findings suggest that the ZIKV epidemic is by and large over within LAC, with incidence projected to be low in most cities in 2018. Local low levels of transmission are probable, but the estimated rate of infection suggests that most cities have a population with high levels of herd immunity.

Project description:BackgroundA severe neurological disorder, Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is the leading cause of acute flaccid paralysis. Enhanced surveillance of GBS in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) following the 2015-2016 Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic presents an opportunity to estimate, for the first time, the regional incidence of GBS.Methods and findingsFor this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched nine scientific databases and grey literature from January 1, 1980 to October 1, 2018. Sources with primary data on incident GBS cases in LAC within a well-defined population and timeframe, published in English, Spanish, Portuguese, or French, were included. We calculated the annual GBS incidence rates (IRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each source based on published data. Following an assessment of heterogeneity, we used random-effects meta-analysis to calculate the pooled annual IR of GBS. The study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018086659. Of the 6568 initial citation hits, 31 were eligible for inclusion. Background annual GBS IRs in Latin America ranged from 0.40 in Brazil to 2.12/100,000 in Chile. The pooled annual IR in the Caribbean was 1.64 (95% CI 1.29-2.12, I2<0.01, p = 0.44). During the ZIKV epidemic, GBS IRs ranged from 0.62 in Mexico to 9.35/100,000 in Martinique. GBS increased 2.6 (95% CI 2.3-2.9) times during ZIKV and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1-3.4) times during chikungunya outbreaks over background rates. A limitation of this review is that the studies included employed different methodologies to find and ascertain cases of GBS, which could contribute to IR heterogeneity. In addition, it is important to consider that data on GBS are lacking for many countries in the region.ConclusionsBackground IRs of GBS appear to peak during arboviral disease outbreaks. The current review contributes to an understanding of the epidemiology of GBS in the LAC region, which can inform healthcare system planning and preparedness, particularly during arboviral epidemics.Trial registrationRegistered with PROSPERO: CRD42018086659.

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After the epidemic: Zika virus projections for Latin America and the Caribbean.

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After the epidemic: Zika virus projections for Latin America and the Caribbean.

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