Dataset Information

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

ABSTRACT: Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.

SUBMITTER: Sanchez-Salguero R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5703285 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

Sánchez-Salguero Raúl R Camarero J Julio JJ Carrer Marco M Gutiérrez Emilia E Alla Arben Q AQ Andreu-Hayles Laia L Hevia Andrea A Koutavas Athanasios A Martínez-Sancho Elisabet E Nola Paola P Papadopoulos Andreas A Pasho Edmond E Toromani Ervin E Carreira José A JA Linares Juan C JC

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20171106 47

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century cli ...[more]

PMID: 29109266

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Project description:Circum-Mediterranean firs are considered among the most drought-sensitive species to climate change. Understanding the genetic basis of trees' adaptive capacity and intra-specific variability to drought avoidance is mandatory to define conservation measures, thus potentially preventing their extinction. We focus here on Abies pinsapo and Abies marocana, both relict tree species, endemic from south Spain and north Morocco, respectively. A total of 607 samples were collected from eight nuclei: six from Spanish fir and two from Moroccan fir. A genotyping by sequencing technique called double digestion restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD-seq) was performed to obtain a genetic matrix based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). This matrix was utilized to study the genetic structure of A. pinsapo populations and to carry out selection signature studies. In order to understand how Spanish fir and Moroccan fir cope with climate change, genotype-environment associations (GEAs) were identified. Further, the vulnerability of these species to climate variations was estimated by the risk of non-adaptedness (RONA). The filtering of the de novo assembly of A. pinsapo provided 3,982 SNPs from 504 out of 509 trees sequenced. Principal component analysis (PCA) genetically separated Grazalema from the rest of the Spanish populations. However, FST values showed significant differences among the sampling points. We found 51 loci potentially under selection. Homolog sequences were found for some proteins related to abiotic stress response, such as dehydration-responsive element binding transcription factor, regulation of abscisic acid signaling, and methylation pathway. A total of 15 associations with 11 different loci were observed in the GEA studies, with the maximum temperature of the warmest month being the variable with the highest number of associated loci. This temperature sensitivity was also supported by the risk of non-adaptedness, which yielded a higher risk for both A. pinsapo and A. marocana under the high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). This study sheds light on the response to climate change of these two endemic species.

Dataset Information

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

Publications

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

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