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Generative mathematical modelling to demonstrate virtual simulations of neovascular age related macular degeneration.

ABSTRACT: To develop a generative mathematical model of wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and model the impact of injections of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor to virtual patients with the condition.We isolated key pathophysiological components of macular degeneration in terms of macular edema development and response to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) agents. We developed mathematical models for each of these components using constants determined from published biological experimentation. Consequently, we combined the mathematical models of the separate components to arrive at an end-to-end model of the evolution of macular edema size and its response to treatment.We present a series of simulations based upon our idealised model. Initially, we demonstrate the theoretical change in macular edema height in wet macular degeneration over time without and with anti-VEGF interventions. In our final simulation, we demonstrate the powerful possibilities of virtual clinical trials by simulating a virtual model of a landmark study using our existing mathematical AMD model.Using our mathematical modelling based upon known pathological and pharmacological processes we have been able to model the effect of intravitreal injection of an anti-VEGF agent on macular edema from age related macular degeneration. We were subsequently able to mathematically simulate a major clinical trial with results that mirror many key features of the clinical established study. We anticipate that the generative model presented here can evolve to be a useful supportive tool in the challenge to deliver optimal therapy for patients with wet macular degeneration.

SUBMITTER: Hoyle D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5718607 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Generative mathematical modelling to demonstrate virtual simulations of neovascular age related macular degeneration.

Hoyle David D Aslam Tariq Mehmood TM

PloS one 20171206 12

<h4>Purpose</h4>To develop a generative mathematical model of wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and model the impact of injections of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor to virtual patients with the condition.<h4>Methods</h4>We isolated key pathophysiological components of macular degeneration in terms of macular edema development and response to anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) agents. We developed mathematical models for each of these components using constants deter ...[more]

PMID: 29211782

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Project description:BackgroundClinical trials have established the efficacy of ranibizumab for the treatment of neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD). In addition, bevacizumab is used off-label to treat AMD, despite the absence of similar supporting data.MethodsIn a multicenter, single-blind, noninferiority trial, we randomly assigned 1208 patients with neovascular AMD to receive intravitreal injections of ranibizumab or bevacizumab on either a monthly schedule or as needed with monthly evaluation. The primary outcome was the mean change in visual acuity at 1 year, with a noninferiority limit of 5 letters on the eye chart.ResultsBevacizumab administered monthly was equivalent to ranibizumab administered monthly, with 8.0 and 8.5 letters gained, respectively. Bevacizumab administered as needed was equivalent to ranibizumab as needed, with 5.9 and 6.8 letters gained, respectively. Ranibizumab as needed was equivalent to monthly ranibizumab, although the comparison between bevacizumab as needed and monthly bevacizumab was inconclusive. The mean decrease in central retinal thickness was greater in the ranibizumab-monthly group (196 μm) than in the other groups (152 to 168 μm, P=0.03 by analysis of variance). Rates of death, myocardial infarction, and stroke were similar for patients receiving either bevacizumab or ranibizumab (P>0.20). The proportion of patients with serious systemic adverse events (primarily hospitalizations) was higher with bevacizumab than with ranibizumab (24.1% vs. 19.0%; risk ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.01 to 1.66), with excess events broadly distributed in disease categories not identified in previous studies as areas of concern.ConclusionsAt 1 year, bevacizumab and ranibizumab had equivalent effects on visual acuity when administered according to the same schedule. Ranibizumab given as needed with monthly evaluation had effects on vision that were equivalent to those of ranibizumab administered monthly. Differences in rates of serious adverse events require further study. (Funded by the National Eye Institute; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00593450.).

Project description:PurposeTo determine if plasma metabolic profiles can detect differences between patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (NVAMD) and similarly-aged controls.MethodsMetabolomic analysis using liquid chromatography with Fourier-transform mass spectrometry (LC-FTMS) was performed on plasma samples from 26 NVAMD patients and 19 controls. Data were collected from mass/charge ratio (m/z) 85 to 850 on a Thermo LTQ-FT mass spectrometer, and metabolic features were extracted using an adaptive processing software package. Both non-transformed and log2 transformed data were corrected using Benjamini and Hochberg False Discovery Rate (FDR) to account for multiple testing. Orthogonal Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis was performed to determine metabolic features that distinguished NVAMD patients from controls. Individual m/z features were matched to the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes database and the Metlin metabolomics database, and metabolic pathways associated with NVAMD were identified using MetScape.ResultsOf the 1680 total m/z features detected by LC-FTMS, 94 unique m/z features were significantly different between NVAMD patients and controls using FDR (q = 0.05). A comparison of these features to those found with log2 transformed data (n = 132, q = 0.2) revealed 40 features in common, reaffirming the involvement of certain metabolites. Such metabolites included di- and tripeptides, covalently modified amino acids, bile acids, and vitamin D-related metabolites. Correlation analysis revealed associations among certain significant features, and pathway analysis demonstrated broader changes in tyrosine metabolism, sulfur amino acid metabolism, and amino acids related to urea metabolism.ConclusionsThese data suggest that metabolomic analysis can identify a panel of individual metabolites that differ between NVAMD cases and controls. Pathway analysis can assess the involvement of certain metabolic pathways, such as tyrosine and urea metabolism, and can provide further insight into the pathophysiology of AMD.

Dataset Information

Generative mathematical modelling to demonstrate virtual simulations of neovascular age related macular degeneration.

Publications

Generative mathematical modelling to demonstrate virtual simulations of neovascular age related macular degeneration.

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