Dataset Information

Evidence-based controls for epidemics using spatio-temporal stochastic models in a Bayesian framework.

ABSTRACT: The control of highly infectious diseases of agricultural and plantation crops and livestock represents a key challenge in epidemiological and ecological modelling, with implemented control strategies often being controversial. Mathematical models, including the spatio-temporal stochastic models considered here, are playing an increasing role in the design of control as agencies seek to strengthen the evidence on which selected strategies are based. Here, we investigate a general approach to informing the choice of control strategies using spatio-temporal models within the Bayesian framework. We illustrate the approach for the case of strategies based on pre-emptive removal of individual hosts. For an exemplar model, using simulated data and historic data on an epidemic of Asiatic citrus canker in Florida, we assess a range of measures for prioritizing individuals for removal that take account of observations of an emerging epidemic. These measures are based on the potential infection hazard a host poses to susceptible individuals (hazard), the likelihood of infection of a host (risk) and a measure that combines both the hazard and risk (threat). We find that the threat measure typically leads to the most effective control strategies particularly for clustered epidemics when resources are scarce. The extension of the methods to a range of other settings is discussed. A key feature of the approach is the use of functional-model representations of the epidemic model to couple epidemic trajectories under different control strategies. This induces strong positive correlations between the epidemic outcomes under the respective controls, serving to reduce both the variance of the difference in outcomes and, consequently, the need for extensive simulation.

SUBMITTER: Adrakey HK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5721149 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evidence-based controls for epidemics using spatio-temporal stochastic models in a Bayesian framework.

Adrakey Hola K HK Streftaris George G Cunniffe Nik J NJ Gottwald Tim R TR Gilligan Christopher A CA Gibson Gavin J GJ

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 20171101 136

The control of highly infectious diseases of agricultural and plantation crops and livestock represents a key challenge in epidemiological and ecological modelling, with implemented control strategies often being controversial. Mathematical models, including the spatio-temporal stochastic models considered here, are playing an increasing role in the design of control as agencies seek to strengthen the evidence on which selected strategies are based. Here, we investigate a general approach to inf ...[more]

PMID: 29187634

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Project description:BackgroundAt present, dengue control focuses on reducing the density of the primary vector for the disease, Aedes aegypti, which is the only vulnerable link in the chain of transmission. The use of new approaches for dengue entomological surveillance is extremely important, since present methods are inefficient. With this in mind, the present study seeks to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of A. aegypti infestation with oviposition traps, using efficient computational methods. These methods will allow for the implementation of the proposed model and methodology into surveillance and monitoring systems.MethodsThe study area includes a region in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, characterized by high population density, precarious domicile construction, and a general lack of infrastructure around it. Two hundred and forty traps were distributed in eight different sentinel areas, in order to continually monitor immature Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Collections were done weekly between November 2010 and August 2012. The relationship between egg number and climate and environmental variables was considered and evaluated through Bayesian zero-inflated spatio-temporal models. Parametric inference was performed using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) method.ResultsInfestation indexes indicated that ovipositing occurred during the entirety of the study period. The distance between each trap and the nearest boundary of the study area, minimum temperature and accumulated rainfall were all significantly related to the number of eggs present in the traps. Adjusting for the interaction between temperature and rainfall led to a more informative surveillance model, as such thresholds offer empirical information about the favorable climatic conditions for vector reproduction. Data were characterized by moderate time (0.29 - 0.43) and spatial (21.23 - 34.19 m) dependencies. The models also identified spatial patterns consistent with human population density in all sentinel areas. The results suggest the need for weekly surveillance in the study area, using traps allocated between 18 and 24 m, in order to understand the dengue vector dynamics.ConclusionsAedes aegypti, due to it short generation time and strong response to climate triggers, tend to show an eruptive dynamics that is difficult to predict and understand through just temporal or spatial models. The proposed methodology allowed for the rapid and efficient implementation of spatio-temporal models that considered zero-inflation and the interaction between climate variables and patterns in oviposition, in such a way that the final model parameters contribute to the identification of priority areas for entomological surveillance.

Project description:The estimation of EEG generating sources constitutes an Inverse Problem (IP) in Neuroscience. This is an ill-posed problem due to the non-uniqueness of the solution and regularization or prior information is needed to undertake Electrophysiology Source Imaging. Structured Sparsity priors can be attained through combinations of (L1 norm-based) and (L2 norm-based) constraints such as the Elastic Net (ENET) and Elitist Lasso (ELASSO) models. The former model is used to find solutions with a small number of smooth nonzero patches, while the latter imposes different degrees of sparsity simultaneously along different dimensions of the spatio-temporal matrix solutions. Both models have been addressed within the penalized regression approach, where the regularization parameters are selected heuristically, leading usually to non-optimal and computationally expensive solutions. The existing Bayesian formulation of ENET allows hyperparameter learning, but using the computationally intensive Monte Carlo/Expectation Maximization methods, which makes impractical its application to the EEG IP. While the ELASSO have not been considered before into the Bayesian context. In this work, we attempt to solve the EEG IP using a Bayesian framework for ENET and ELASSO models. We propose a Structured Sparse Bayesian Learning algorithm based on combining the Empirical Bayes and the iterative coordinate descent procedures to estimate both the parameters and hyperparameters. Using realistic simulations and avoiding the inverse crime we illustrate that our methods are able to recover complicated source setups more accurately and with a more robust estimation of the hyperparameters and behavior under different sparsity scenarios than classical LORETA, ENET and LASSO Fusion solutions. We also solve the EEG IP using data from a visual attention experiment, finding more interpretable neurophysiological patterns with our methods. The Matlab codes used in this work, including Simulations, Methods, Quality Measures and Visualization Routines are freely available in a public website.

Dataset Information

Evidence-based controls for epidemics using spatio-temporal stochastic models in a Bayesian framework.

Publications

Evidence-based controls for epidemics using spatio-temporal stochastic models in a Bayesian framework.

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