Dataset Information

Evaluation of Bayesian spatio-temporal latent models in small area health data.

ABSTRACT: Health outcomes are linked to air pollution, demographic, or socioeconomic factors which vary across space and time. Thus, it is often found that relative risks in space-time health data have locally different temporal patterns. In such cases, latent modeling is useful in the disaggregation of risk profiles. In particular, spatio-temporal mixture models can help to isolate spatial clusters each of which has a homogeneous temporal pattern in relative risks. In mixture modeling, various weight structures can be used and two situations can be considered: the number of underlying components is known or unknown. In this paper, we compare spatio-temporal mixture models with different weight structures in both situations. In addition, spatio-temporal Dirichlet process mixture models are compared to them when the number of components is unknown. For comparison, we propose a set of spatial cluster detection diagnostics based on the posterior distribution of the weights. We also develop new accuracy measures to assess the recovery of true relative risks. Based on the simulation study, we examine the performance of various spatio-temporal mixture models in terms of proposed methods and goodness-of-fit measures. We apply our models to a county-level chronic obstructive pulmonary disease data set from the state of Georgia.

SUBMITTER: Choi J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3241053 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evaluation of Bayesian spatio-temporal latent models in small area health data.

Choi Jungsoon J Lawson Andrew B AB Cai Bo B Hossain Md Monir MM

Environmetrics 20111201 8

Health outcomes are linked to air pollution, demographic, or socioeconomic factors which vary across space and time. Thus, it is often found that relative risks in space-time health data have locally different temporal patterns. In such cases, latent modeling is useful in the disaggregation of risk profiles. In particular, spatio-temporal mixture models can help to isolate spatial clusters each of which has a homogeneous temporal pattern in relative risks. In mixture modeling, various weight str ...[more]

PMID: 22184483

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Project description:BackgroundBayesian models have been applied throughout the Covid-19 pandemic especially to model time series of case counts or deaths. Fewer examples exist of spatio-temporal modeling, even though the spatial spread of disease is a crucial factor in public health monitoring. The predictive capabilities of infectious disease models is also important.MethodsIn this study, the ability of Bayesian hierarchical models to recover different parts of the variation in disease counts is the focus. It is clear that different measures provide different views of behavior when models are fitted prospectively. Over a series of time horizons one step predictions have been generated and compared for different models (for case counts and death counts). These Bayesian SIR models were fitted using MCMC at 28 time horizons to mimic prospective prediction. A range of goodness of prediction measures were analyzed across the different time horizons.ResultsA particularly important result is that the peak intensity of case load is often under-estimated, while random spikes in case load can be mimicked using time dependent random effects. It is also clear that during the early wave of the pandemic simpler model forms are favored, but subsequently lagged spatial dependence models for cases are favored, even if the sophisticated models perform better overall.DiscussionThe models fitted mimic the situation where at a given time the history of the process is known but the future must be predicted based on the current evolution which has been observed. Using an overall 'best' model for prediction based on retrospective fitting of the complete pandemic waves is an assumption. However it is also clear that this case count model is well favored over other forms. During the first wave a simpler time series model predicts case counts better for counties than a spatially dependent one. The picture is more varied for morality.ConclusionsFrom a predictive point of view it is clear that spatio-temporal models applied to county level Covid-19 data within the US vary in how well they fit over time and also how well they predict future events. At different times, SIR case count models and also mortality models with cumulative counts perform better in terms of prediction. A fundamental result is that predictive capability of models varies over time and using the same model could lead to poor predictive performance. In addition it is clear that models addressing the spatial context for case counts (i.e. with lagged neighborhood terms) and cumulative case counts for mortality data are clearly better at modeling spatio-temporal data which is commonly available for the Covid-19 pandemic in different areas of the globe.

Project description:The estimation of EEG generating sources constitutes an Inverse Problem (IP) in Neuroscience. This is an ill-posed problem due to the non-uniqueness of the solution and regularization or prior information is needed to undertake Electrophysiology Source Imaging. Structured Sparsity priors can be attained through combinations of (L1 norm-based) and (L2 norm-based) constraints such as the Elastic Net (ENET) and Elitist Lasso (ELASSO) models. The former model is used to find solutions with a small number of smooth nonzero patches, while the latter imposes different degrees of sparsity simultaneously along different dimensions of the spatio-temporal matrix solutions. Both models have been addressed within the penalized regression approach, where the regularization parameters are selected heuristically, leading usually to non-optimal and computationally expensive solutions. The existing Bayesian formulation of ENET allows hyperparameter learning, but using the computationally intensive Monte Carlo/Expectation Maximization methods, which makes impractical its application to the EEG IP. While the ELASSO have not been considered before into the Bayesian context. In this work, we attempt to solve the EEG IP using a Bayesian framework for ENET and ELASSO models. We propose a Structured Sparse Bayesian Learning algorithm based on combining the Empirical Bayes and the iterative coordinate descent procedures to estimate both the parameters and hyperparameters. Using realistic simulations and avoiding the inverse crime we illustrate that our methods are able to recover complicated source setups more accurately and with a more robust estimation of the hyperparameters and behavior under different sparsity scenarios than classical LORETA, ENET and LASSO Fusion solutions. We also solve the EEG IP using data from a visual attention experiment, finding more interpretable neurophysiological patterns with our methods. The Matlab codes used in this work, including Simulations, Methods, Quality Measures and Visualization Routines are freely available in a public website.

Dataset Information

Evaluation of Bayesian spatio-temporal latent models in small area health data.

Publications

Evaluation of Bayesian spatio-temporal latent models in small area health data.

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