Dataset Information

Early warning scores for detecting deterioration in adult hospital patients: a systematic review protocol.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Early warning scores (EWSs) are used extensively to identify patients at risk of deterioration in hospital. Previous systematic reviews suggest that studies which develop EWSs suffer methodological shortcomings and consequently may fail to perform well. The reviews have also identified that few validation studies exist to test whether the scores work in other settings. We will aim to systematically review papers describing the development or validation of EWSs, focusing on methodology, generalisability and reporting.

Methods

We will identify studies that describe the development or validation of EWSs for adult hospital inpatients. Each study will be assessed for risk of bias using the Prediction model Risk of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). Two reviewers will independently extract information. A narrative synthesis and descriptive statistics will be used to answer the main aims of the study which are to assess and critically appraise the methodological quality of the EWS, to describe the predictors included in the EWSs and to describe the reported performance of EWSs in external validation.

Ethics and dissemination

This systematic review will only investigate published studies and therefore will not directly involve patient data. The review will help to establish whether EWSs are fit for purpose and make recommendations to improve the quality of future research in this area.

Prospero registration number

CRD42017053324.

SUBMITTER: Gerry S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5736035 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Early warning scores for detecting deterioration in adult hospital patients: a systematic review protocol.

Gerry Stephen S Birks Jacqueline J Bonnici Timothy T Watkinson Peter J PJ Kirtley Shona S Collins Gary S GS

BMJ open 20171203 12

<h4>Introduction</h4>Early warning scores (EWSs) are used extensively to identify patients at risk of deterioration in hospital. Previous systematic reviews suggest that studies which develop EWSs suffer methodological shortcomings and consequently may fail to perform well. The reviews have also identified that few validation studies exist to test whether the scores work in other settings. We will aim to systematically review papers describing the development or validation of EWSs, focusing on m ...[more]

PMID: 29203508

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:To provide an overview and critical appraisal of early warning scores for adult hospital patients. DESIGN:Systematic review. DATA SOURCES:Medline, CINAHL, PsycInfo, and Embase until June 2019. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION:Studies describing the development or external validation of an early warning score for adult hospital inpatients. RESULTS:13?171 references were screened and 95 articles were included in the review. 11 studies were development only, 23 were development and external validation, and 61 were external validation only. Most early warning scores were developed for use in the United States (n=13/34, 38%) and the United Kingdom (n=10/34, 29%). Death was the most frequent prediction outcome for development studies (n=10/23, 44%) and validation studies (n=66/84, 79%), with different time horizons (the most frequent was 24 hours). The most common predictors were respiratory rate (n=30/34, 88%), heart rate (n=28/34, 83%), oxygen saturation, temperature, and systolic blood pressure (all n=24/34, 71%). Age (n=13/34, 38%) and sex (n=3/34, 9%) were less frequently included. Key details of the analysis populations were often not reported in development studies (n=12/29, 41%) or validation studies (n=33/84, 39%). Small sample sizes and insufficient numbers of event patients were common in model development and external validation studies. Missing data were often discarded, with just one study using multiple imputation. Only nine of the early warning scores that were developed were presented in sufficient detail to allow individualised risk prediction. Internal validation was carried out in 19 studies, but recommended approaches such as bootstrapping or cross validation were rarely used (n=4/19, 22%). Model performance was frequently assessed using discrimination (development n=18/22, 82%; validation n=69/84, 82%), while calibration was seldom assessed (validation n=13/84, 15%). All included studies were rated at high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS:Early warning scores are widely used prediction models that are often mandated in daily clinical practice to identify early clinical deterioration in hospital patients. However, many early warning scores in clinical use were found to have methodological weaknesses. Early warning scores might not perform as well as expected and therefore they could have a detrimental effect on patient care. Future work should focus on following recommended approaches for developing and evaluating early warning scores, and investigating the impact and safety of using these scores in clinical practice. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION:PROSPERO CRD42017053324.

Project description:BackgroundTimely identification of patients at a high risk of clinical deterioration is key to prioritizing care, allocating resources effectively, and preventing adverse outcomes. Vital signs-based, aggregate-weighted early warning systems are commonly used to predict the risk of outcomes related to cardiorespiratory instability and sepsis, which are strong predictors of poor outcomes and mortality. Machine learning models, which can incorporate trends and capture relationships among parameters that aggregate-weighted models cannot, have recently been showing promising results.ObjectiveThis study aimed to identify, summarize, and evaluate the available research, current state of utility, and challenges with machine learning-based early warning systems using vital signs to predict the risk of physiological deterioration in acutely ill patients, across acute and ambulatory care settings.MethodsPubMed, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Embase, and Google Scholar were searched for peer-reviewed, original studies with keywords related to "vital signs," "clinical deterioration," and "machine learning." Included studies used patient vital signs along with demographics and described a machine learning model for predicting an outcome in acute and ambulatory care settings. Data were extracted following PRISMA, TRIPOD, and Cochrane Collaboration guidelines.ResultsWe identified 24 peer-reviewed studies from 417 articles for inclusion; 23 studies were retrospective, while 1 was prospective in nature. Care settings included general wards, intensive care units, emergency departments, step-down units, medical assessment units, postanesthetic wards, and home care. Machine learning models including logistic regression, tree-based methods, kernel-based methods, and neural networks were most commonly used to predict the risk of deterioration. The area under the curve for models ranged from 0.57 to 0.97.ConclusionsIn studies that compared performance, reported results suggest that machine learning-based early warning systems can achieve greater accuracy than aggregate-weighted early warning systems but several areas for further research were identified. While these models have the potential to provide clinical decision support, there is a need for standardized outcome measures to allow for rigorous evaluation of performance across models. Further research needs to address the interpretability of model outputs by clinicians, clinical efficacy of these systems through prospective study design, and their potential impact in different clinical settings.

Project description:Background: Early Warning Scores (EWS), including the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and Modified NEWS (NEWS-C), have been recommended for triage decision in patients with COVID-19. However, the effectiveness of these EWS in COVID-19 has not been fully validated. The study aimed to investigate the predictive value of EWS to detect clinical deterioration in patients with COVID-19. Methods: Between February 7, 2020 and February 17, 2020, patients confirmed with COVID-19 were screened for this study. The outcomes were early deterioration of respiratory function (EDRF) and need for intensive respiratory support (IRS) during the treatment process. The EDRF was defined as changes in the respiratory component of the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score at day 3 (ΔSOFAresp = SOFA resp at day 3-SOFAresp on admission), in which the positive value reflects clinical deterioration. The IRS was defined as the use of high flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy, noninvasive or invasive mechanical ventilation. The performances of EWS including NEWS, NEWS 2, NEWS-C, Modified Early Warning Scores (MEWS), Hamilton Early Warning Scores (HEWS), and quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment (qSOFA) for predicting EDRF and IRS were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Results: A total of 116 patients were included in this study. Of them, 27 patients (23.3%) developed EDRF and 24 patients (20.7%) required IRS. Among these EWS, NEWS-C was the most accurate scoring system for predicting EDRF [AUROC 0.79 (95% CI, 0.69-0.89)] and IRS [AUROC 0.89 (95% CI, 0.82-0.96)], while NEWS 2 had the lowest accuracy in predicting EDRF [AUROC 0.59 (95% CI, 0.46-0.720)] and IRS [AUROC 0.69 (95% CI, 0.57-0.81)]. A NEWS-C ≥ 9 had a sensitivity of 59.3% and a specificity of 85.4% for predicting EDRF. For predicting IRS, a NEWS-C ≥ 9 had a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 88%. Conclusions: The NEWS-C was the most accurate scoring system among common EWS to identify patients with COVID-19 at risk for EDRF and need for IRS. The NEWS-C could be recommended as an early triage tool for patients with COVID-19.

Project description:ObjectivesAdministrative and clinical efforts to improve hospital mortality and intensive care utilization commonly focus on patient rescue, where deteriorating patients are systematically identified and intervened upon. Patient rescue is known to depend on hospital context inclusive of technologic environment, structural features, and hospital organizational behavioral features. With widespread adoption of electronic medical records, early warning score (EWS) systems, which assign points to clinical data elements, are increasingly promoted as a tool for timely patient rescue by referencing their prediction of patient deterioration. We describe the extent to which EWS intervention studies describe the hospital environment of the intervention-details that would be critical for hospital leaders attempting to determine the real-world utility of EWSs in their own hospitals.Data sourcesWe searched CINAHL, PubMed, and Scopus databases for English language EWS implementation research published between 2009 and 2021 in adult medical-surgical inpatients.Study selectionStudies including pediatric, obstetric, psychiatric, prehospital, outpatient, step-down, or ICU patients were excluded.Data extractionTwo investigators independently reviewed titles/abstracts for eligibility based on prespecified exclusion criteria.Data synthesisWe identified 1,434 studies for title/abstract screening. In all, 352 studies underwent full-text review and 21 studies were summarized. The 21 studies (18 before-and-after, three randomized trials) detailed 1,107,883 patients across 54 hospitals. Twelve reported the staff composition of an EWS response team. Ten reported the proportion of surgical patients. One reported nursing ratios; none reported intensive care staffing with in-house critical-care physicians. None measured changes in bed utilization or availability. While 16 qualitatively described resources for education/technologic implementation, none estimated costs. None described workforce composition such as team stability or culture of safety in the hospitals.ConclusionsDespite hundreds of EWS-related publications, most do not report details of hospital context that would inform decisions about real-world EWS adoption. To make informed decisions about whether EWS implementation improves hospital quality, decision-makers may require alternatives such as peer networks and implementation pilots nested within local health systems.

Dataset Information

Early warning scores for detecting deterioration in adult hospital patients: a systematic review protocol.

Introduction

Methods

Ethics and dissemination

Prospero registration number

Publications

Early warning scores for detecting deterioration in adult hospital patients: a systematic review protocol.

Similar Datasets

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