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ABSTRACT: Aim
It is challenging to predict the outcome of patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) through existing prognostic models. Our aim was to establish a novel dynamic model to improve the predictive efficiency of 30-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients.Methods
305 patients who were diagnosed as HBV-ACLF (derivation cohort, n=211; validation cohort, n=94) were included in this study. The HBV-ACLF dynamic (HBV-ACLFD) model was constructed based on the daily levels of predictive variables in 7 days after diagnosis combined with baseline risk factors by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The HBV-ACLFD model was compared with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and MELD within corporation of serum sodium (MELD-Na) score by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROC).Results
The HBV-ACLFD model demonstrated excellent discrimination with AUROC of 0.848 in the derivation cohort and of 0.813 in the validation cohort (p=0.620). The performance of the HBV-ACLFD model appeared to be superior to MELD score, MELD-Na score and CTP score (P<0.0001).Conclusion
The HBV-ACLFD model can accurately predict 30-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF, which is helpful to select appropriate clinical procedures, so as to relieve the social and economic burden.
SUBMITTER: Xue R
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5752496 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Oncotarget 20171114 65
<h4>Aim</h4>It is challenging to predict the outcome of patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) through existing prognostic models. Our aim was to establish a novel dynamic model to improve the predictive efficiency of 30-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients.<h4>Methods</h4>305 patients who were diagnosed as HBV-ACLF (derivation cohort, n=211; validation cohort, n=94) were included in this study. The HBV-ACLF dynamic (HBV-ACLFD) model was constructed based ...[more]