Dataset Information

A novel dynamic model for predicting outcome in patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure.

ABSTRACT:

Aim

It is challenging to predict the outcome of patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) through existing prognostic models. Our aim was to establish a novel dynamic model to improve the predictive efficiency of 30-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients.

Methods

305 patients who were diagnosed as HBV-ACLF (derivation cohort, n=211; validation cohort, n=94) were included in this study. The HBV-ACLF dynamic (HBV-ACLFD) model was constructed based on the daily levels of predictive variables in 7 days after diagnosis combined with baseline risk factors by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The HBV-ACLFD model was compared with the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and MELD within corporation of serum sodium (MELD-Na) score by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROC).

Results

The HBV-ACLFD model demonstrated excellent discrimination with AUROC of 0.848 in the derivation cohort and of 0.813 in the validation cohort (p=0.620). The performance of the HBV-ACLFD model appeared to be superior to MELD score, MELD-Na score and CTP score (P<0.0001).

Conclusion

The HBV-ACLFD model can accurately predict 30-day mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF, which is helpful to select appropriate clinical procedures, so as to relieve the social and economic burden.

SUBMITTER: Xue R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5752496 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A novel dynamic model for predicting outcome in patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure.

Xue Ran R Duan Zhonghui Z Liu Haixia H Chen Li L Yu Hongwei H Ren Meixin M Zhu Yueke Y Jin Chenggang C Han Tao T Gao Zhiliang Z Meng Qinghua Q

Oncotarget 20171114 65

<h4>Aim</h4>It is challenging to predict the outcome of patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) through existing prognostic models. Our aim was to establish a novel dynamic model to improve the predictive efficiency of 30-day mortality in HBV-ACLF patients.<h4>Methods</h4>305 patients who were diagnosed as HBV-ACLF (derivation cohort, n=211; validation cohort, n=94) were included in this study. The HBV-ACLF dynamic (HBV-ACLFD) model was constructed based ...[more]

PMID: 29312583

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Project description:BackgroundInfection is common in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which may worsen the clinical condition and prognosis. However, the characteristics of infection and its influence on prognosis in hepatitis B virus related ACLF (HBV-ACLF) as defined by the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) have not been clarified. We aimed to investigate the characteristics of infection and its influence on mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF defined by EASL in China.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study in patients with HBV-ACLF defined by EASL in a single center from January 2015 to December 2017. These patients were divided into two groups with and without infection. The incidence, sites of infection, isolated strains, and risk factors associated with mortality were evaluated.ResultsA total of 289 patients were included, among them 185 (64.0%) were diagnosed with an infection. The most common type of infection was pneumonia (55.7%), followed by spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (47.6%) and others. The gram-negative bacteria were the most frequent (58.3%). Patients with one, two, and three or more infection sites had a gradually increasing incidence of sepsis (P < 0.01), septic shock (P < 0.001), and ACLF-3 (P < 0.05). Also, patients with infection isolated one, two, and three or more strains showed a growing incidence of sepsis (P < 0.01) and septic shock (P < 0.001). Patients with infection showed a significantly higher 28-day mortality than those without (P < 0.01), especially in patients with ACLF-3. Infection was identified as an independent risk factor for 28-day mortality in all HBV-ACLF patients. Pneumonia and sepsis were identified as independent predictors of 28-day mortality for patients with infection.ConclusionsInfection is associated with severe clinical course and high mortality in HBV-ACLF defined by EASL. The increased number of infection sites or isolated strains was associated with the occurrence of sepsis and septic shock. Pneumonia and sepsis were independent predictors for mortality in HBV-ACLF patients with infection.

Project description:BackgroundIt is widely known that muscle mass influences the outcomes of many chronic diseases. Erector spine mass is a convenient parameter obtained from routine abdominal computed tomography (CT). The clinical application value of erector spine mass, and whether erector spine mass could predict the outcome of disease has not been studied.AimTo evaluate the role of the erector spine index (ESI) calculated based on abdominal CT imaging in the progression of acute-on-chronic liver failure related to the hepatitis B virus (HBV-ACLF).MethodsWe performed a retrospective study of 118 HBV-ACLF patients and calculated the ESI (the total erector spine area normalized for height2 in meters) for each patient through abdominal CT. The findings were analyzed regarding the progression of HBV-ACLF and the ESI at baseline, including mortality and the development of complications.ResultsThe ESI level was associated with mortality and the development of complications. During the 90-day follow-up period, patients with a low ESI (<12.05 cm2/m2) had higher mortality than those with a high ESI (≥ 12.05 cm2/m2) (51.7% vs. 26.7%), and the cumulative survival rates were 71.0%±4.6 and 85.8%±3.9, respectively (log-rank P = 0.003). The hazard ratios (HRs) calculated using univariable and multivariable analyses were 2.23(95% confidence interval (CI): 1.25-4.21, P = 0.005) and 2.52 (95% CI: 1.34-9.24, P = 0.011), respectively. Patients with a low ESI (<12.05 cm2/m2) had higher incidences of kidney dysfunction (43.5% vs. 23.2%, P = 0.029; log-rank P = 0.017) and hepatic encephalopathy (39.6% vs. 14.0%, P = 0.003; log-rank P = 0.010) than those with a high ESI. A low ESI was an independent risk factor for kidney dysfunction (adjusted HR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.05-2.93, P = 0.043) and the development of hepatic encephalopathy (adjusted HR = 2.26; 95% CI: 2.05-3.13, P = 0.036). In addition, the presence of hepatic encephalopathy (the odds ratio (OR) = 2.26, 95% CI: 2.05-3.18, P = 0.006), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (OR = 3.95, 95% CI: 1.01-5.46, P = 0.037), and kidney dysfunction (OR = 4.47, 95% CI: 1.02-9.64, P = 0.032) was independently associated with a low ESI in patients.ConclusionA low ESI is an independent risk factor for mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF, as well as the development of kidney dysfunction and hepatic encephalopathy.

Project description:BackgroundHepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is an important type of liver failure in Asia. There is a direct relationship between HBV-ACLF and gastrointestinal barrier function. However, the nutritional status of HBV-ACLF patients has been poorly studied.AimTo investigate the nutritional risk and nutritional status of HBV-ACLF patients and evaluated the impact of nutritional support on the gastrointestinal barrier and 28-d mortality.MethodsNutritional risk screening assessment and gastrointestinal barrier biomarkers of patients with HBV-ACLF (n = 234) and patients in the compensatory period of liver cirrhosis (the control group) (n = 234) were compared during the period between 2016 and 2018. Changes were analyzed after nutritional support in HBV-ACLF patients. Valuable biomarkers have been explored to predict 28-d death. The 28-d survival between HBV-ACLF patients with nutritional support (n = 234) or no nutritional support (2014-2016) (n = 207) was compared.ResultsThe nutritional risk of the HBV-ACLF patients was significantly higher than that of the control group. The nutritional intake of the patients with HBV-ACLF was lower than that of the control group. The decrease in skeletal muscle and fat content and the deficiency of fat intake were more obvious (P < 0.001). The coccus-bacillus ratio, secretory immunoglobulin A, and serum D-lactate were significantly increased in HBV-ACLF patients. The survival group had a lower nutritional risk, lower D-lactate, and cytokine levels (endotoxin, tumor necrosis factor alpha, interleukin-10, and interleukin-1). Interleukin-10 may be a potential predictor of death in HBV-ACLF patients. The 28-d survival of the nutritional support group was better than that of the non-nutritional support group (P = 0.016).ConclusionPatients with HBV-ACLF have insufficient nutritional intake and high nutritional risk, and their intestinal barrier function is impaired. Individualized and dynamic nutritional support is associated with a better prognosis of 28-d mortality in HBV-ACLF patients.

Dataset Information

A novel dynamic model for predicting outcome in patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure.

Aim

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

A novel dynamic model for predicting outcome in patients with hepatitis B virus related acute-on-chronic liver failure.

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