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Comparative Analysis of Biopsy Upgrading in Four Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance Cohorts.

ABSTRACT: Background:Active surveillance (AS) is increasingly accepted for managing low-risk prostate cancer, yet there is no consensus about implementation. This lack of consensus is due in part to uncertainty about risks for disease progression, which have not been systematically compared or integrated across AS studies with variable surveillance protocols and dropout to active treatment. Objective:To compare risks for upgrading from a Gleason score (GS) of 6 or less to 7 or more across AS studies after accounting for differences in surveillance intervals and competing treatments and to evaluate tradeoffs of more versus less frequent biopsies. Design:Joint statistical model of longitudinal prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels and risks for biopsy upgrading. Setting:Johns Hopkins University (JHU); Canary Prostate Active Surveillance Study (PASS); University of California, San Francisco (UCSF); and University of Toronto (UT) AS studies. Patients:2576 men aged 40 to 80 years with a GS between 2 and 6 and clinical stage T1 or T2 prostate cancer enrolled between 1995 and 2014. Measurements:PSA levels and biopsy GSs. Results:After variable surveillance intervals and competing treatments were accounted for, estimated risks for biopsy upgrading were similar in the PASS and UT studies but higher in UCSF and lower in JHU studies. All cohorts had a delay of 3 to 5 months in detecting upgrading with biennial biopsies starting after a first confirmatory biopsy versus annual biopsies. Limitation:The model does not account for possible misclassification of biopsy GS. Conclusion:Men in different AS studies have different risks for biopsy upgrading after variable surveillance protocols and competing treatments are accounted for. Despite these differences, the consequences of more versus less frequent biopsies seem to be similar across cohorts. Biennial biopsies seem to be an acceptable alternative to annual biopsies. Primary Funding Source:National Cancer Institute.

SUBMITTER: Inoue LYT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5752581 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comparative Analysis of Biopsy Upgrading in Four Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance Cohorts.

Inoue Lurdes Y T LYT Lin Daniel W DW Newcomb Lisa F LF Leonardson Amy S AS Ankerst Donna D Gulati Roman R Carter H Ballentine HB Trock Bruce J BJ Carroll Peter R PR Cooperberg Matthew R MR Cowan Janet E JE Klotz Laurence H LH Mamedov Alexandre A Penson David F DF Etzioni Ruth R

Annals of internal medicine 20171128 1

<h4>Background</h4>Active surveillance (AS) is increasingly accepted for managing low-risk prostate cancer, yet there is no consensus about implementation. This lack of consensus is due in part to uncertainty about risks for disease progression, which have not been systematically compared or integrated across AS studies with variable surveillance protocols and dropout to active treatment.<h4>Objective</h4>To compare risks for upgrading from a Gleason score (GS) of 6 or less to 7 or more across A ...[more]

PMID: 29181514

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Project description:ObjectiveTo develop a model and methodology for predicting the risk of Gleason upgrading in patients with prostate cancer on active surveillance (AS) and using the predicted risks to create risk-based personalised biopsy schedules as an alternative to one-size-fits-all schedules (e.g. annually). Furthermore, to assist patients and doctors in making shared decisions on biopsy schedules, by providing them quantitative estimates of the burden and benefit of opting for personalised vs any other schedule in AS. Lastly, to externally validate our model and implement it along with personalised schedules in a ready to use web-application.Patients and methodsRepeat prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measurements, timing and results of previous biopsies, and age at baseline from the world's largest AS study, Prostate Cancer Research International Active Surveillance (PRIAS; 7813 patients, 1134 experienced upgrading). We fitted a Bayesian joint model for time-to-event and longitudinal data to this dataset. We then validated our model externally in the largest six AS cohorts of the Movember Foundation's third Global Action Plan (GAP3) database (>20 000 patients, 27 centres worldwide). Using the model predicted upgrading risks; we scheduled biopsies whenever a patient's upgrading risk was above a certain threshold. To assist patients/doctors in the choice of this threshold, and to compare the resulting personalised schedule with currently practiced schedules, along with the timing and the total number of biopsies (burden) planned, for each schedule we provided them with the time delay expected in detecting upgrading (shorter is better).ResultsThe cause-specific cumulative upgrading risk at the 5-year follow-up was 35% in PRIAS, and at most 50% in the GAP3 cohorts. In the PRIAS-based model, PSA velocity was a stronger predictor of upgrading (hazard ratio [HR] 2.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.93-2.99) than the PSA level (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.89-1.11). Our model had a moderate area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.6-0.7) in the validation cohorts. The prediction error was moderate (0.1-0.2) in theGAP3 cohorts where the impact of the PSA level and velocity on upgrading risk was similar to PRIAS, but large (0.2-0.3) otherwise. Our model required re-calibration of baseline upgrading risk in the validation cohorts. We implemented the validated models and the methodology for personalised schedules in a web-application (http://tiny.cc/biopsy).ConclusionsWe successfully developed and validated a model for predicting upgrading risk, and providing risk-based personalised biopsy decisions in AS of prostate cancer. Personalised prostate biopsies are a novel alternative to fixed one-size-fits-all schedules, which may help to reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies, while maintaining cancer control. The model and schedules made available via a web-application enable shared decision-making on biopsy schedules by comparing fixed and personalised schedules on total biopsies and expected time delay in detecting upgrading.

Project description:Associations have been documented recently between some of the 23 single nucleotide polymorphisms newly discovered with the Collaborative Oncological Gene-environment Study iCOGS array that indicate prostate cancer (PCa) risk and aspects of disease aggressiveness. The utility of these iCOGS SNPs remains to be determined in active surveillance (AS).To determine associations between iCOGS SNPs and upgrading among men who underwent surgical treatment and AS for low-risk PCa.The genotypes of the 23 iCOGS SNPs were determined for all white subjects with biopsy Gleason score (GS) 6 including 950 men who underwent definitive treatment with surgery and 209 men who elected AS. The clinical and pathologic characteristics were documented for all subjects.Men who underwent surgery were grouped according to their pathologic GS (upgraded was defined as GS ?7; nonupgraded remained GS 6). Men who were enrolled in AS were also grouped according to their GS on subsequent surveillance biopsies. Statistical analyses were performed comparing the genotypes between the upgraded and nonupgraded groups.Overall, 31% and 34% of men were upgraded in the surgery and AS cohorts, respectively. Three iCOGS SNPs were significantly associated with the risk of upgrading in the surgical cohort. After correction for multiple testing, only rs11568818 on chromosome 11q22 remained significantly associated with upgrading. Assessment of this allele in the AS cohort reveals that it was present at noteworthy higher frequencies in men with high-grade disease on surveillance biopsies compared with nonupgraded men (p=0.003). This study was primarily limited by the homogeneous patient population.This is the first report of a SNP on chromosome 11q22 associated with higher grade disease in a surgical cohort that is also validated for eventual upgrading in a prospective AS cohort.We examined the relationship between a group of genetic markers and prostate cancer (PCa) aggressiveness in a group of patients who underwent surgery for PCa and a group of patients who were enrolled in active surveillance. We found that these genetic markers helped predict which patients had more aggressive disease in both groups.

Project description:BackgroundCurrently, follow-up protocols are applied equally to men on active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer (PCa) regardless of findings at their initial follow-up biopsy. To determine whether less intensive follow-up is suitable following negative biopsy findings, we assessed the risk of converting to active treatment, any subsequent upgrading, volume progression (>33% positive cores), and serious upgrading (grade group >2) for negative compared with positive findings on initial follow-up biopsy.Methods13,161 men from 24 centres participating in the Global Action Plan Active Surveillance Prostate Cancer [GAP3] consortium database, with baseline grade group ≤2, PSA ≤ 20 ng/mL, cT-stage 1-2, diagnosed after 1995, and ≥1 follow-up biopsy, were included in this study. Risk of converting to treatment was assessed using multivariable mixed-effects survival regression. Odds of volume progression, any upgrading and serious upgrading were assessed using mix-effects binary logistic regression for men with ≥2 surveillance biopsies.Results27% of the cohort (n = 3590) had no evidence of PCa at their initial biopsy. Over 50% of subsequent biopsies in this group were also negative. A negative initial biopsy was associated with lower risk of conversion (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.45; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.42-0.49), subsequent upgrading (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 0.52; 95%CI: 0.45-0.62) and serious upgrading (OR: 0.74; 95%CI: 0.59-92). Radiological progression was not assessed due to limited imaging data.ConclusionDespite heterogeneity in follow-up schedules, findings from this global study indicated reduced risk of converting to treatment, volume progression, any upgrading and serious upgrading among men whose initial biopsy findings were negative compared with positive. Given the low risk of progression and high likelihood of further negative biopsy findings, consideration should be given to decreasing follow-up intensity for this group to reduce unnecessary invasive biopsies.

Project description:ImportanceTransrectal, ultrasonography-guided prostate biopsy often fails to disclose the severity of underlying pathologic findings for prostate cancer. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-guided biopsy may improve the characterization of prostate pathologic results, but few studies have examined its use for the decision to enter active surveillance.ObjectiveTo evaluate whether confirmatory biopsy findings by MRI guidance are associated with the risk of pathologic disease upgrading among patients with prostate cancer during active surveillance.Design, settings, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study used prospectively obtained registry data from 332 men with prostate cancer of Gleason grade group (GG) 2 or lower who were referred for active surveillance at a large academic medical center from January 1, 2009, through December 31, 2017.ExposuresAll confirmatory and follow-up biopsies were performed using MRI guidance with an MRI-ultrasonography fusion device. Patients underwent repeated MRI-guided biopsies every 12 to 24 months. At follow-up sessions, in addition to obtaining systematic samples, lesions seen on MRI were targeted and foci of low-grade prostate cancer were obtained again using tracking technology. Active surveillance was terminated with detection of at least GG3 disease or receipt of treatment.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was upgrading to at least GG3 disease during active surveillance. Secondary outcomes were the associations of MRI lesion grade, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, PSA density, and biopsy method (targeted, systematic, or tracked) with the primary outcome.ResultsOf 332 patients (mean [SD] age, 62.8 [7.6] years), 39 (11.7%) upgraded to at least GG3 disease during follow-up. The incidence of upgrading was 7.9% (9 of 114) when the confirmatory biopsy finding was normal, 11.4% (20 of 175) when the finding showed GG1 disease, and 23.3% (10 of 43) when the finding was GG2 disease (P = .03). Men with GG2 disease were almost 8 times more likely to upgrade during surveillance compared with those with normal findings but only among those with low PSA density (hazard ratio [HR], 7.82; 95% CI, 2.29-26.68). A PSA density of at least 0.15 ng/mL/mL was associated with increased risk of upgrading among patients with normal findings (HR, 7.21; 95% CI, 1.98-26.24) or GG1 disease (HR, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.16 to 7.03) on confirmatory biopsy. A total of 46% of pathologic disease upgrades would have been missed if only the targeted biopsy was performed and 65% of disease upgrades were detected only with tracked biopsy.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings suggest that confirmatory biopsy with MRI guidance is significantly associated with future disease upgrading of prostate cancer, especially when combined with PSA density, and should be considered as an appropriate entry point for active surveillance. Systematic and targeted biopsies were additive in detection of clinically significant cancers. Repeated biopsy at sites at which findings were previously abnormal (tracking biopsy) facilitated detection of cancers not suitable for continued active surveillance.

Dataset Information

Comparative Analysis of Biopsy Upgrading in Four Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance Cohorts.

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Comparative Analysis of Biopsy Upgrading in Four Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance Cohorts.

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