Assessment of a trap based Aedes aegypti surveillance program using mathematical modeling.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Lana RM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5755894 | biostudies-literature | 2018
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Assessment of a trap based Aedes aegypti surveillance program using mathematical modeling.
Lana Raquel Martins RM Morais Maíra Moreira MM Lima Tiago França Melo de TFM Carneiro Tiago Garcia de Senna TGS Stolerman Lucas Martins LM Dos Santos Jefferson Pereira Caldas JPC Cortés José Joaquín Carvajal JJC Eiras Álvaro Eduardo ÁE Codeço Cláudia Torres CT
PloS one 20180105 1
The goal of this study was to assess the goodness-of-fit of theoretical models of population dynamics of Aedes aegypti to trap data collected by a long term entomological surveillance program. The carrying capacity K of this vector was estimated at city and neighborhood level. Adult mosquito abundance was measured via adults collected weekly by a network of sticky traps (Mosquitraps) from January 2008 to December 2011 in Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil. K was the only free parameter estimated by ...[more]
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Project description:Cancer screening and early detection efforts have been partially successful in reducing incidence and mortality, but many improvements are needed. Although current medical practice is informed by epidemiologic studies and experts, the decisions for guidelines are ultimately ad hoc. We propose here that quantitative optimization of protocols can potentially increase screening success and reduce overdiagnosis. Mathematical modeling of the stochastic process of cancer evolution can be used to derive and optimize the timing of clinical screens so that the probability is maximal that a patient is screened within a certain "window of opportunity" for intervention when early cancer development may be observable. Alternative to a strictly empirical approach or microsimulations of a multitude of possible scenarios, biologically based mechanistic modeling can be used for predicting when best to screen and begin adaptive surveillance. We introduce a methodology for optimizing screening, assessing potential risks, and quantifying associated costs to healthcare using multiscale models. As a case study in Barrett's esophagus, these methods were applied for a model of esophageal adenocarcinoma that was previously calibrated to U.S. cancer registry data. Optimal screening ages for patients with symptomatic gastroesophageal reflux disease were older (58 for men and 64 for women) than what is currently recommended (age > 50 years). These ages are in a cost-effective range to start screening and were independently validated by data used in current guidelines. Collectively, our framework captures critical aspects of cancer evolution within patients with Barrett's esophagus for a more personalized screening design. SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates how mathematical modeling of cancer evolution can be used to optimize screening regimes, with the added potential to improve surveillance regimes. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: http://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/canres/81/4/1123/F1.large.jpg.
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Project description:BackgroundThe global incidences of dengue virus have increased the interest in studying and understanding the mosquito population dynamics. It is predominantly spread by Aedes aegypti in the tropical and sub-tropical countries in the world. Understanding these dynamics is important for public health in countries where climatic and environmental conditions are favorable for the propagation of these diseases. For this reason, a new model has been proposed to investigate the population dynamics of mosquitoes in a city.MethodsThe present paper discusses the numerical modeling of population dynamics of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes in an urban neighborhood of a city using the finite volume method. The model describes how populations spread through the city assisted by the wind. This model allows incorporating external factors (wind and chemical insecticides) and topography data (streets, building blocks, parks, forests and beach). The proposed model has been successfully tested in examples involving two Brazilian cities (City center, Juiz de Fora and Copacabana Beach, Rio de Janeiro).ResultsInvasion phenomena of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes have been observed in each of the simulations. It was observed that, inside the blocks, the growth of the population for both winged and aquatic phase causes an infestation of Ae. aegypti in a short time. Within the blocks the mosquito population was concentrated and diffused slowly. In the streets, there was a long-distance spread, which was influenced by wind and diffusion with a low concentration of mosquito population. The model was also tested taking into account chemical insecticides spread in two different configurations. It has been observed that the insecticides have a significant effect on the mosquito population for both winged and aquatic phases when the chemical insecticides spread more uniformly along all the streets in a neighborhood of a city.ConclusionsThe presented methodology can be employed to evaluate and to understand the epidemic risks in a specific region of the city. Moreover the model allows an increase in efficiency of the existing mosquito population control techniques and to theoretically test new methods before involving the human population.
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Project description:BackgroundAedes aegypti is the most important vector of dengue fever in Brazil, where severe epidemics have recently taken place. Ae. aegypti in Brazil was the subject of an intense eradication program in the 1940s and 50s to control yellow fever. Brazil was the largest country declared free of this mosquito by the Pan-American Health Organization in 1958. Soon after relaxation of this program, Ae. aegypti reappeared in this country, and by the early 1980s dengue fever had been reported. The aim of this study is to analyze the present-day genetic patterns of Ae. aegypti populations in Brazil.Methodology/principal findingsWe studied the genetic variation in samples of 11 widely spread populations of Ae. aegypti in Brazil based on 12 well-established microsatellite loci. Our principal finding is that present-day Brazilian Ae. aegypti populations form two distinct groups, one in the northwest and one in the southeast of the country. These two groups have genetic affinities to northern South American countries and the Caribbean, respectively. This is consistent with what has been reported for other genetic markers such as mitochondrial DNA and allele frequencies at the insecticide resistance gene, kdr.Conclusions/significanceWe conclude that the genetic patterns in present day populations of Ae. aegypti in Brazil are more consistent with a complete eradication of the species in the recent past followed by re-colonization, rather than the alternative possibility of expansion from residual pockets of refugia. At least two colonizations are likely to have taken place, one from northern South American countries (e.g., Venezuela) that founded the northwestern group, and one from the Caribbean that founded the southeastern group. The proposed source areas were never declared free of Ae. aegypti.
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