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Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control.

ABSTRACT: Arboviral disease transmission by Aedes mosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to estimate the current geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti in Ecuador, using mosquito presence as a proxy for risk of disease transmission. ENMs built with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) algorithm and a suite of environmental variables were assessed for agreement and accuracy. The top model of larval mosquito presence was projected to the year 2050 under various combinations of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. Under current climatic conditions, larval mosquitoes were not predicted in areas of high elevation in Ecuador, such as the Andes mountain range, as well as the eastern portion of the Amazon basin. However, all models projected to scenarios of future climate change demonstrated potential shifts in mosquito distribution, wherein range contractions were seen throughout most of eastern Ecuador, and areas of transitional elevation became suitable for mosquito presence. Encroachment of Ae. aegypti into mountainous terrain was estimated to affect up to 4,215 km2 under the most extreme scenario of climate change, an area which would put over 12,000 people currently living in transitional areas at risk. This distributional shift into communities at higher elevations indicates an area of concern for public health agencies, as targeted interventions may be needed to protect vulnerable populations with limited prior exposure to mosquito-borne diseases. Ultimately, the results of this study serve as a tool for informing public health policy and mosquito abatement strategies in Ecuador.

SUBMITTER: Lippi CA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6488096 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control.

Lippi Catherine A CA Stewart-Ibarra Anna M AM Loor M E Franklin Bajaña MEFB Zambrano Jose E Dueñas JED Lopez Nelson A Espinoza NAE Blackburn Jason K JK Ryan Sadie J SJ

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20190417 4

Arboviral disease transmission by Aedes mosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to estimate the current geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti in Ecuador, using mosquito presence as a proxy for risk of disease tra ...[more]

PMID: 30995228

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Project description:Insecticide resistance (IR) can undermine efforts to control vectors of public health importance. Aedes aegypti is the main vector of resurging diseases in the Americas such as yellow fever and dengue, and recently emerging chikungunya and Zika fever, which have caused unprecedented epidemics in the region. Vector control remains the primary intervention to prevent outbreaks of Aedes-transmitted diseases. In many high-risk regions, like southern Ecuador, we have limited information on IR. In this study, Ae. aegypti IR was measured across four cities in southern Ecuador using phenotypic assays and genetic screening for alleles associated with pyrethroid IR. Bottle bioassays showed significant inter-seasonal variation in resistance to deltamethrin, a pyrethroid commonly used by the Ministry of Health, and alpha-cypermethrin, as well as between-city differences in deltamethrin resistance. There was also a significant difference in phenotypic response to the organophosphate, Malathion, between two cities during the second sampling season. Frequencies of the resistant V1016I genotype ranged from 0.13 to 0.68. Frequencies of the resistant F1534C genotype ranged from 0.63 to 1.0, with sampled populations in Machala and Huaquillas at fixation for the resistant genotype in all sampled seasons. In Machala and Portovelo, there were statistically significant inter-seasonal variation in genotype frequencies for V1016I. Resistance levels were highest in Machala, a city with hyperendemic dengue transmission and historically intense insecticide use. Despite evidence that resistance alleles conferred phenotypic resistance to pyrethroids, there was not a precise correspondence between these indicators. For the F1534C gene, 17.6% of homozygous mutant mosquitoes and 70.8% of heterozygotes were susceptible, while for the V1016I gene, 45.6% homozygous mutants and 55.6% of heterozygotes were susceptible. This study shows spatiotemporal variability in IR in Ae. aegypti populations in southern coastal Ecuador, and provides an initial examination of IR in this region, helping to guide vector control efforts for Ae. aegypti.

Project description:BackgroundSuitability of environmental conditions determines a species distribution in space and time. Understanding and modelling the ecological niche of mosquito disease vectors can, therefore, be a powerful predictor of the risk of exposure to the pathogens they transmit. In Africa, five anophelines are responsible for over 95% of total malaria transmission. However, detailed knowledge of the geographic distribution and ecological requirements of these species is to date still inadequate.MethodsIndoor-resting mosquitoes were sampled from 386 villages covering the full range of ecological settings available in Cameroon, Central Africa. Using a predictive species distribution modeling approach based only on presence records, habitat suitability maps were constructed for the five major malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles nili and Anopheles moucheti. The influence of 17 climatic, topographic, and land use variables on mosquito geographic distribution was assessed by multivariate regression and ordination techniques.ResultsTwenty-four anopheline species were collected, of which 17 are known to transmit malaria in Africa. Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Habitat Suitability modeling and Canonical Correspondence Analysis revealed marked differences among the five major malaria vector species, both in terms of ecological requirements and niche breadth. Eco-geographical variables (EGVs) related to human activity had the highest impact on habitat suitability for the five major malaria vectors, with areas of low population density being of marginal or unsuitable habitat quality. Sunlight exposure, rainfall, evapo-transpiration, relative humidity, and wind speed were among the most discriminative EGVs separating "forest" from "savanna" species.ConclusionsThe distribution of major malaria vectors in Cameroon is strongly affected by the impact of humans on the environment, with variables related to proximity to human settings being among the best predictors of habitat suitability. The ecologically more tolerant species An. gambiae and An. funestus were recorded in a wide range of eco-climatic settings. The other three major vectors, An. arabiensis, An. moucheti, and An. nili, were more specialized. Ecological niche and species distribution modelling should help improve malaria vector control interventions by targeting places and times where the impact on vector populations and disease transmission can be optimized.

Project description:BACKGROUND: The growing burden of dengue fever and the lack of a vaccine or specific medical treatment have increased the urgency of the public health sector to identify alternative management strategies. A prevailing trend in Latin America has been a shift towards decentralized vector control programs with integrated management strategies, requiring significant intersectoral coordination, community engagement, and knowledge of the local social-ecological system (SES). Community perceptions and responses are a critical component of this system, since perceptions shape actions, and thus govern behavioral responses and acceptance of shifts in policy and management. METHODS: We investigated perceptions, misconceptions, and local SES risk factors for dengue in high risk communities located at the urban periphery and center in Machala, Ecuador. We facilitated twelve focus group discussions with community members using semi-structured question guides and causal diagrams. Focus groups were recorded, transcribed, and coded to identify emergent themes using qualitative methods for theme analysis. To estimate the relative importance of the themes in each study area, we tabulated the number of focus groups in which each theme was present. Household surveys (n = 79) were conducted to further explore these themes, and we compared survey responses from the two areas using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: We identified thirty biophysical, political-institutional, and community-household risk factors for dengue. People at the periphery identified a greater number of risk factors. Dengue control required considerable investment of time and resources, which presented a greater challenge for women and people at the periphery. Common misperceptions included confusion with other febrile diseases, lack of knowledge of transmission mechanisms, and misconceptions about mosquito behavior. People perceived that dengue control programs had been limited by the lack of inter-institutional coordination and lack of social cohesion. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for local, policy-relevant research that can be translated to strengthen the design, implementation, and evaluation of new dengue management strategies. This study contributes to a growing body of research in this area. Based on these findings, we identify key policy and management recommendations that will inform the ongoing transition to a decentralized dengue control program in Ecuador and other dengue endemic countries.

Project description:BackgroundThe Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is a semi-enclosed sea where the waters of the United States, Mexico and Cuba converge. Al least 21 species of cetaceans inhabit it. The only mysticete (baleen whale) is found in the northeast (U.S. waters). The distribution of the 20 species of odontocetes (toothed cetaceans) is well understood in U.S. waters, but practically unknown in Mexican and Cuban waters. In this study we used sighting data from several odontocete species to construct habitat suitability maps in order to identify geographical regions suitable for high diversity throughout the GOM.MethodsHistorical datasets of georeferenced sightings from across the GOM were used to implement the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to model the habitat suitability of each species. Five environmental predictors were used, selected for their influence over the occurrence of cetaceans: two oceanographic predictors (sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a concentration), and three bathymetric predictors (depth, slope, and distance to 200-m isobath). A spatial approach based on the habitat suitability maps was used to identify the suitable regions.ResultsOnly 12 species were modeled, which were the ones with the minimum sample size required. The models performed well, showing good discriminatory power and slight overfitting. Overall, depth, minimum sea surface temperature, and bottom slope were the most contributing predictor in the models. High suitability areas of 10 species were located on the continental slope, and four suitable regions were identified: (1) the Mississippi Canyon and the Louisiana-Texas slope in the northern GOM, (2) the west Florida slope in the east-northeastern GOM, (3) the Rio Grande slope in the west-northwestern GOM, and (4) the Tamaulipas-Veracruz slope in the west-southwestern GOM.ConclusionsWe were able to detect four geographic regions in the GOM where a high diversity of odontocetes is expected, all located on the continental slope. Although the methodology to identify them (spatial overlap) is a very conservative approach, it is useful for conservation and management purposes. The paucity of data did not allow all species to be modeled, which highlights the importance of establishing transboundary monitoring programs.

Project description:Globally accelerating frequency and extent of wildfire threatens the persistence of specialist wildlife species through direct loss of habitat and indirect facilitation of exotic invasive species. Habitat specialists may be especially prone to rapidly changing environmental conditions because their ability to adapt lags behind the rate of habitat alteration. As a result, these populations may become increasingly susceptible to ecological traps by returning to suboptimal breeding habitats that were dramatically altered by disturbance. We demonstrate a multistage modeling approach that integrates habitat selection and survival during the key nesting life-stage of a bird species of high conservation concern, the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter, sage-grouse). We applied these spatially explicit models to a spatiotemporally robust dataset of sage-grouse nest locations and fates across wildfire-altered sagebrush ecosystems of the Great Basin ecoregion, western United States. Female sage-grouse exhibited intricate habitat selection patterns that varied across regional gradients of ecological productivity among sagebrush communities, but often selected nest sites that disproportionately resulted in nest failure. For example, 23% of nests occurred in wildfire-affected habitats characterized by reduced sagebrush cover and greater composition of invasive annual grasses. We found survival of nests was negatively associated with wildfire-affected areas, but positively associated with higher elevations with increased ruggedness and overall shrub cover. Strong site fidelity likely drove sage-grouse to continue nesting in habitats degraded by wildfire. Hence, increasing frequency and extent of wildfire may contribute disproportionately to reduced reproductive success by creating ecological traps that act as population sinks. Identifying such habitat mismatches between selection and survival facilitates deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving reduced geographic niche space and population decline at broad spatiotemporal scales, while guiding management actions to areas that would be most beneficial to the species.

Dataset Information

Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control.

Publications

Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control.

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