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Risky business: Correlation and causation in longitudinal studies of skill development.

ABSTRACT: Developmental theories often posit that changes in children's early psychological characteristics will affect much later psychological, social, and economic outcomes. However, tests of these theories frequently yield results that are consistent with plausible alternative theories that posit a much smaller causal role for earlier levels of these psychological characteristics. Our article explores this issue with empirical tests of skill-building theories, which predict that early boosts to simpler skills (e.g., numeracy or literacy) or behaviors (e.g., antisocial behavior or executive functions) support the long-term development of more sophisticated skills or behaviors. Substantial longitudinal associations between academic or socioemotional skills measured early and then later in childhood or adolescence are often taken as support of these skill-building processes. Using the example of skill-building in mathematics, we argue that longitudinal correlations, even if adjusted for an extensive set of baseline covariates, constitute an insufficiently risky test of skill-building theories. We first show that experimental manipulation of early math skills generates much smaller effects on later math achievement than the nonexperimental literature has suggested. We then conduct falsification tests that show puzzlingly high cross-domain associations between early math and later literacy achievement. Finally, we show that a skill-building model positing a combination of unmeasured stable factors and skill-building processes can reproduce the pattern of experimental impacts on children's mathematics achievement. Implications for developmental theories, methods, and practice are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record

SUBMITTER: Bailey DH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5776753 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risky business: Correlation and causation in longitudinal studies of skill development.

Bailey Drew H DH Duncan Greg J GJ Watts Tyler T Clements Doug H DH Sarama Julie J

The American psychologist 20180101 1

Developmental theories often posit that changes in children's early psychological characteristics will affect much later psychological, social, and economic outcomes. However, tests of these theories frequently yield results that are consistent with plausible alternative theories that posit a much smaller causal role for earlier levels of these psychological characteristics. Our article explores this issue with empirical tests of skill-building theories, which predict that early boosts to simple ...[more]

PMID: 29345488

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:Given that many adolescent e-cigarette users are never-smokers, the possibility that e-cigarettes may act as a gateway to future cigarette smoking has been discussed in various studies. Longitudinal data are needed to explore the pathway between e-cigarette and cigarette use, particularly among different risk groups including susceptible and non-susceptible never-smokers. The objective of this study was to examine whether baseline use of e-cigarettes among a sample of never-smoking youth predicted cigarette smoking initiation over a 2-year period. DESIGN:Longitudinal cohort study. SETTING:89 high schools across Ontario and Alberta, Canada. PARTICIPANTS:A sample of grade 9-11 never-smoking students at baseline (n=9501) who participated in the COMPASS study over 2?years. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES:Participants completed in-class questionnaires that assessed smoking susceptibility and smoking initiation. RESULTS:Among the baseline sample of non-susceptible never-smokers, 45.2% of current e-cigarette users reported trying a cigarette after 2?years compared with 13.5% of non-current e-cigarette users. Among the baseline sample of susceptible never-smokers, 62.4% of current e-cigarette users reported trying a cigarette after 2?years compared with 36.1% of non-current e-cigarette users. Overall, current e-cigarette users were more likely to try a cigarette 2 years later. This association was stronger among the sample of non-susceptible never-smokers (AOR=5.28, 95% CI 2.81 to 9.94; p<0.0001) compared with susceptible never-smokers (AOR=2.78, 95% CI 1.84 to 4.20; p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS:Findings from this large, longitudinal study support public health concerns that e-cigarette use may contribute to the development of a new population of cigarette smokers. They also support the notion that e-cigarettes are expanding the tobacco market by attracting low-risk youth who would otherwise be unlikely to initiate using cigarettes. Careful consideration will be needed in developing an appropriate regulatory framework that prevents e-cigarette use among youth.

Dataset Information

Risky business: Correlation and causation in longitudinal studies of skill development.

Publications

Risky business: Correlation and causation in longitudinal studies of skill development.

Similar Datasets

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