Dataset Information

Modeling Health Care Spending Growth of Older Adults.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To forecast out-of-pocket health care spending among older adults. Long-term forecasts allow policy makers to explore potential impacts of policy scenarios, but existing microsimulations do not incorporate details of supplemental insurance coverage and income effects on health care spending.

Data sources

Dynamic microsimulation calibrated to survey and administrative data.

Study design

We augment Urban Institute's Dynamic Simulation of Income Model (DYNASIM) with modules that incorporate demand responses and economic equilibria, with dynamics driven by exogenous technological change. A lengthy technical appendix provides details of the microsimulation model and economic assumptions for readers interested in applying these techniques.

Principal findings

The model projects total out-of-pocket spending (point of care plus premiums) as a share of income for adults aged 65 and older. People with lower incomes and poor health fare worse, despite protections of Medicaid. Spending rises 40 percent from 2012 to 2035 (from 10 to 14 percent of income) for the median beneficiary, but it increases from 5 to 25 percent of income for low-income beneficiaries and from 23 to 29 percent for the near poor who are in fair/poor health.

Conclusions

Despite Medicare coverage, near-poor seniors will face out-of-pocket spending that would render them, in practical terms, underinsured.

SUBMITTER: Hatfield LA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5785322 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Modeling Health Care Spending Growth of Older Adults.

Hatfield Laura A LA Favreault Melissa M MM McGuire Thomas G TG Chernew Michael E ME

Health services research 20161226 1

<h4>Objective</h4>To forecast out-of-pocket health care spending among older adults. Long-term forecasts allow policy makers to explore potential impacts of policy scenarios, but existing microsimulations do not incorporate details of supplemental insurance coverage and income effects on health care spending.<h4>Data sources</h4>Dynamic microsimulation calibrated to survey and administrative data.<h4>Study design</h4>We augment Urban Institute's Dynamic Simulation of Income Model (DYNASIM) with ...[more]

PMID: 28024314

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Project description:ObjectiveThis study explores differences in spending and utilization of health care services for an older person with frailty before and after a hip fracture.Data sourcesWe used individual-level patient data from five care settings.Study designWe compared utilization and spending of an older person aged older than 65 years for 365 days before and after a hip fracture across 11 countries and five domains of care as follows: acute hospital care, primary care, outpatient specialty care, post-acute rehabilitative care, and outpatient drugs. Utilization and spending were age and sex standardized..Data collection/extraction methodsThe data were compiled by the International Collaborative on Costs, Outcomes, and Needs in Care (ICCONIC) across 11 countries as follows: Australia, Canada, England, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States.Principal findingsThe sample ranged from 1859 patients in Spain to 42,849 in France. Mean age ranged from 81.2 in Switzerland to 84.7 in Australia. The majority of patients across countries were female. Relative to other countries, the United States had the lowest inpatient length of stay (11.3), but the highest number of days were spent in post-acute care rehab (100.7) and, on average, had more visits to specialist providers (6.8 per year) than primary care providers (4.0 per year). Across almost all sectors, the United States spent more per person than other countries per unit ($13,622 per hospitalization, $233 per primary care visit, $386 per MD specialist visit). Patients also had high expenditures in the year prior to the hip fracture, mostly concentrated in the inpatient setting.ConclusionAcross 11 high-income countries, there is substantial variation in health care spending and utilization for an older person with frailty, both before and after a hip fracture. The United States is the most expensive country due to high prices and above average utilization of post-acute rehab care.

Dataset Information

Modeling Health Care Spending Growth of Older Adults.

Objective

Data sources

Study design

Principal findings

Conclusions

Publications

Modeling Health Care Spending Growth of Older Adults.

Similar Datasets

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