Predictive modeling of U.S. health care spending in late life.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Einav L
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6038121 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Predictive modeling of U.S. health care spending in late life.
Einav Liran L Finkelstein Amy A Mullainathan Sendhil S Obermeyer Ziad Z
Science (New York, N.Y.) 20180601 6396
That one-quarter of Medicare spending in the United States occurs in the last year of life is commonly interpreted as waste. But this interpretation presumes knowledge of who will die and when. Here we analyze how spending is distributed by predicted mortality, based on a machine-learning model of annual mortality risk built using Medicare claims. Death is highly unpredictable. Less than 5% of spending is accounted for by individuals with predicted mortality above 50%. The simple fact that we sp ...[more]
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