Dataset Information

Quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, Central China.

ABSTRACT: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a substantial burden throughout Asia, but the effects of temperature pattern on HFMD risk are inconsistent. To quantify the effect of temperature on HFMD incidence, Wuhan was chosen as the study site because of its high temperature variability and high HFMD incidence. Daily series of HFMD counts and meteorological variables during 2010-2015 were obtained. Distributed lag non-linear models were applied to characterize the temperature-HFMD relationship and to assess its variability across different ages, genders, and types of child care. Totally, 80,219 patients of 0-5 years experienced HFMD in 2010-2015 in Wuhan. The cumulative relative risk of HFMD increased linearly with temperature over 7 days (lag0-7), while it presented as an approximately inverted V-shape over 14 days (lag0-14). The cumulative relative risk at lag0-14 peaked at 26.4?°C with value of 2.78 (95%CI: 2.08-3.72) compared with the 5th percentile temperature (1.7?°C). Subgroup analyses revealed that children attended daycare were more vulnerable to temperature variation than those cared for at home. This study suggests that public health actions should take into consideration local weather conditions and demographic characteristics.

SUBMITTER: Huang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5792432 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, Central China.

Huang Jiao J Chen Shi S Wu Yang Y Tong Yeqing Y Wang Lei L Zhu Min M Hu Shuhua S Guan Xuhua X Wei Sheng S

Scientific reports 20180131 1

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a substantial burden throughout Asia, but the effects of temperature pattern on HFMD risk are inconsistent. To quantify the effect of temperature on HFMD incidence, Wuhan was chosen as the study site because of its high temperature variability and high HFMD incidence. Daily series of HFMD counts and meteorological variables during 2010-2015 were obtained. Distributed lag non-linear models were applied to characterize the temperature-HFMD relationship and to ...[more]

PMID: 29386630

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Project description:There is limited evidence about the association between ambient temperature and the incidence of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) nationwide in China.We examined the childhood temperature-HFMD associations across mainland China, and we projected the change in HFMD cases due to projected temperature change by the 2090s.Data on daily HFMD (children 0-14 y old) counts and weather were collected from 362 sites during 2009-2014. Daily temperature by the 2090s was downscaled under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Temperature-HFMD associations were quantified using a two-stage Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model. The impact of changes in temperature on the incidence of HFMD was estimated by combining the fitted temperature-HFMD associations with projected temperatures under each scenario, assuming a constant population structure. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of primary model assumptions.During 2009-2014, >11 million HFMD cases were reported. In most regions, the temperature-HFMD association had an inverted U shape with a peak at approximately 20°C, but the association leveled off or continued to increase in the Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions. When estimates were pooled across all regions and the population size was held constant, the projected incidence of HFMD increased by 3.2% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): ?13.5%, 20.0%] and 5.3% (95% eCI: ?33.3%, 44.0%) by the 2090s under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, regional projections suggest that HFMD may decrease with climate change in temperate areas of central and eastern China.Our estimates suggest that the association between temperature and HFMD varies across China and that the future impact of climate change on HFMD incidence will vary as well. Other factors, including changes in the size of the population at risk (children 0-14 y old) will also influence future HFMD trends. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3062.

Dataset Information

Quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, Central China.

Publications

Quantifying the influence of temperature on hand, foot and mouth disease incidence in Wuhan, Central China.

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