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Experimental evidence of a pathogen invasion threshold.

ABSTRACT: Host density thresholds to pathogen invasion separate regions of parameter space corresponding to endemic and disease-free states. The host density threshold is a central concept in theoretical epidemiology and a common target of human and wildlife disease control programmes, but there is mixed evidence supporting the existence of thresholds, especially in wildlife populations or for pathogens with complex transmission modes (e.g. environmental transmission). Here, we demonstrate the existence of a host density threshold for an environmentally transmitted pathogen by combining an epidemiological model with a microcosm experiment. Experimental epidemics consisted of replicate populations of naive crustacean zooplankton (Daphnia dentifera) hosts across a range of host densities (20-640?hosts?l-1) that were exposed to an environmentally transmitted fungal pathogen (Metschnikowia bicuspidata). Epidemiological model simulations, parametrized independently of the experiment, qualitatively predicted experimental pathogen invasion thresholds. Variability in parameter estimates did not strongly influence outcomes, though systematic changes to key parameters have the potential to shift pathogen invasion thresholds. In summary, we provide one of the first clear experimental demonstrations of pathogen invasion thresholds in a replicated experimental system, and provide evidence that such thresholds may be predictable using independently constructed epidemiological models.

SUBMITTER: Dallas TA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5792953 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Experimental evidence of a pathogen invasion threshold.

Dallas Tad A TA Krkošek Martin M Drake John M JM

Royal Society open science 20180124 1

Host density thresholds to pathogen invasion separate regions of parameter space corresponding to endemic and disease-free states. The host density threshold is a central concept in theoretical epidemiology and a common target of human and wildlife disease control programmes, but there is mixed evidence supporting the existence of thresholds, especially in wildlife populations or for pathogens with complex transmission modes (e.g. environmental transmission). Here, we demonstrate the existence o ...[more]

PMID: 29410876

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Project description:Amphibians, the most threatened group of vertebrates, are seen as indicators of the sixth mass extinction on earth. Thousands of species are threatened with extinction and many have been affected by an emerging infectious disease, chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, amphibians exhibit different responses to the pathogen, such as survival and population persistence with infection, or mortality of individuals and complete population collapse after pathogen invasion. Multiple factors can affect host pathogen dynamics, yet few studies have provided a temporal view that encompasses both the epizootic phase (i.e. pathogen invasion and host collapse), and the transition to a more stable co-existence (i.e. recovery of infected host populations). In the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, USA, conspecific populations of frogs currently exhibit dramatically different host/ Bd-pathogen dynamics. To provide a temporal context by which present day dynamics may be better understood, we use a Bd qPCR assay to test 1165 amphibian specimens collected between 1900 and 2005. Our historical analyses reveal a pattern of pathogen invasion and eventual spread across the Sierra Nevada over the last century. Although we found a small number of Bd-infections prior to 1970, these showed no sign of spread or increase in infection prevalence over multiple decades. After the late 1970s, when mass die offs were first noted, our data show Bd as much more prevalent and more spatially spread out, suggesting epizootic spread. However, across the ~400km2 area, we found no evidence of a wave-like pattern, but instead discovered multiple, nearly-simultaneous invasions within regions. We found that Bd invaded and spread in the central Sierra Nevada (Yosemite National Park area) about four decades before it invaded and spread in the southern Sierra Nevada (Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks area), and suggest that the temporal pattern of pathogen invasion may help explain divergent contemporary host pathogen dynamics.

Project description:BackgroundIdentifying the mechanisms driving disease risk is challenging for multi-host pathogens, such as Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.), the tick-borne bacteria causing Lyme disease. Deer are tick reproduction hosts but do not transmit B. burgdorferi s.l., whereas rodents and birds are competent transmission hosts. Here, we use a long-term deer exclosure experiment to test three mechanisms for how high deer density might shape B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence in ticks: increased prevalence due to higher larval tick densities facilitating high transmission on rodents (M1); alternatively, reduced B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence because more larval ticks feed on deer rather than transmission-competent rodents (dilution effect) (M2), potentially due to ecological cascades, whereby higher deer grazing pressure shortens vegetation which decreases rodent abundance thus reducing transmission (M3).MethodsIn a large enclosure where red deer stags were kept at high density (35.5 deer km-2), we used an experimental design consisting of eight plots of 0.23 ha, four of which were fenced to simulate the absence of deer and four that were accessible to deer. In each plot we measured the density of questing nymphs and nymphal infection prevalence in spring, summer and autumn, and quantified vegetation height and density, and small mammal abundance.ResultsPrevalence tended to be lower, though not conclusively so, in high deer density plots compared to exclosures (predicted prevalence of 1.0% vs 2.2%), suggesting that the dilution and cascade mechanisms might outweigh the increased opportunities for transmission mechanism. Presence of deer at high density led to shorter vegetation and fewer rodents, consistent with an ecological cascade. However, Lyme disease hazard (density of infected I. ricinus nymphs) was five times higher in high deer density plots due to tick density being 18 times higher.ConclusionsHigh densities of tick reproduction hosts such as deer can drive up vector-borne disease hazard, despite the potential to simultaneously reduce pathogen prevalence. This has implications for environmental pathogen management and for deer management, although the impact of intermediate deer densities now needs testing.

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Experimental evidence of a pathogen invasion threshold.

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Experimental evidence of a pathogen invasion threshold.

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