Dataset Information

Climate Based Predictability of Oil Palm Tree Yield in Malaysia.

ABSTRACT: The influence of local conditions and remote climate modes on the interannual variability of oil palm fresh fruit bunches (FFB) total yields in Malaysia and two major regions (Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah/Sarawak) is explored. On a country scale, the state of sea-surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the previous boreal winter is found to influence the regional climate. When El Niño occurs in the Pacific Ocean, rainfall in Malaysia reduces but air temperature increases, generating a high level of water stress for palm trees. As a result, the yearly production of FFB becomes lower than that of a normal year since the water stress during the boreal spring has an important impact on the total annual yields of FFB. Conversely, La Niña sets favorable conditions for palm trees to produce more FFB by reducing chances of water stress risk. The region of the Leeuwin current also seems to play a secondary role through the Ningaloo Niño/ Niña in the interannual variability of FFB yields. Based on these findings, a linear model is constructed and its ability to reproduce the interannual signal is assessed. This model has shown some skills in predicting the total FFB yield.

SUBMITTER: Oettli P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5797103 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Climate Based Predictability of Oil Palm Tree Yield in Malaysia.

Oettli Pascal P Behera Swadhin K SK Yamagata Toshio T

Scientific reports 20180202 1

The influence of local conditions and remote climate modes on the interannual variability of oil palm fresh fruit bunches (FFB) total yields in Malaysia and two major regions (Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah/Sarawak) is explored. On a country scale, the state of sea-surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the previous boreal winter is found to influence the regional climate. When El Niño occurs in the Pacific Ocean, rainfall in Malaysia reduces but air temperature increases ...[more]

PMID: 29396527

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Project description:Agricultural expansion is one of the leading causes of deforestation in the tropics and in Southeast Asia it is predominantly driven by large-scale production for international trade. Peninsular Malaysia has a long history of plantation agriculture and has been a predominantly resource-based economy where expanding plantations like those of oil palm continue to replace natural forests. Habitat loss from deforestation and expanding plantations threatens Malaysian biodiversity. Expanding industrial plantations have also been responsible for drainage and conversions of peatland forests resulting in release of large amounts of carbon dioxide. The demand for palm oil is expected to increase further and result in greater pressures on tropical forests. Given Malaysia's high biophysical suitability for oil palm cultivation, it is important to understand patterns of oil palm expansion to better predict forest areas that are vulnerable to future expansion. We study natural forest conversion to industrial oil palm in Peninsular Malaysia between 1988 and 2012 to identify determinants of recent oil palm expansion using logistic regression and hierarchical partitioning. Using maps of recent conversions and remaining forests, we characterize agro-environmental suitability and accessibility for the past and future conversions. We find that accessibility to previously existing plantations is the strongest determinant of oil palm expansion and is significant throughout the study period. Almost all (> 99%) of the forest loss between 1988 and 2012 that has been converted to industrial oil palm plantations is within 1 km from oil palm plantations that have been established earlier. Although most forest conversions to industrial oil palm have been in areas of high biophysical suitability, there has been an increase in converted area in regions with low oil palm suitability since 2006. We find that reduced suitability does not necessarily restrict conversions to industrial oil palm in the region; however, lack of access to established plantations does.

Project description:The detrimental stresses of future climate change are well known and decisions are required to reduce their effects. Climate and disease stresses cause severe damage to plants and it is essential to understand how they will respond. Oil palm (OP) is an Fusarium important crop for many countries. The palm originated in Africa, where palm oil is produced in the largest amount within the continent by Nigeria. OP becomes stressed by climate change and wilt, a devastating disease of OP in Africa. Previous methods to determine the suitability of future climate on OP in continents and whole countries were applied to Nigeria, which is the first time an individual country has been assessed in this manner. Climate maps of Nigeria were divided equally into 16 regions from north to south and east to west to determine the future suitable climate for growing OP. CLIMEX and narrative modelling were used to determine suitability for growing OP and Fusarium wilt incidence for current time and 2050. Maps from published papers were employed directly thereby facilitating the procedure. A distinct latitudinal increasing trend from north to south in suitable climate was observed, which was unexpected. A decreasing longitudinal trend from west to east was also observed. These differences in suitable climates may allow refuges for OP in the future. The growth of OP in the south of Nigeria may be largely unaffected by climate change by 2050, unlike the north. The procedures allow policy decisions at state and national levels to be made from empirical data, which do not otherwise exist. States with low amounts of OP and where the climate deteriorates greatly, could usefully be abandoned. Other low palm oil producers, where the climate does not deteriorate greatly, could be encouraged to develop OP. Little requires to be done in the high producing states where the climate does not deteriorate. In all cases, the environmental impacts require thorough assessment. Climate change requires reduction as indicated in recent Conference of the Parties meetings.

Dataset Information

Climate Based Predictability of Oil Palm Tree Yield in Malaysia.

Publications

Climate Based Predictability of Oil Palm Tree Yield in Malaysia.

Similar Datasets

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