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Using an onset-anchored Bayesian hierarchical model to improve predictions for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease progression.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), also known as Lou Gehrig's disease, is a rare disease with extreme between-subject variability, especially with respect to rate of disease progression. This makes modelling a subject's disease progression, which is measured by the ALS Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS), very difficult. Consider the problem of predicting a subject's ALSFRS score at 9 or 12 months after a given time-point. METHODS:We obtained ALS subject data from the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials Database, a collection of data from various ALS clinical trials. Due to the typical linearity of the ALSFRS, we consider several Bayesian hierarchical linear models. These include a mixture model (to account for the two potential classes of "fast" and "slow" ALS progressors) as well as an onset-anchored model, in which an additional artificial data-point, using time of disease onset, is utilized to improve predictive performance. RESULTS:The onset-anchored model had a drastically reduced posterior predictive mean-square-error distributions, when compared to the Bayesian hierarchical linear model or the mixture model under a cross-validation approach. No covariates, other than time of disease onset, consistently improved predictive performance in either the Bayesian hierarchical linear model or the onset-anchored model. CONCLUSIONS:Augmenting patient data with an additional artificial data-point, or onset anchor, can drastically improve predictive modelling in ALS by reducing the variability of estimated parameters at the cost of a slight increase in bias. This onset-anchored model is extremely useful if predictions are desired directly after a single baseline measure (such as at the first day of a clinical trial), a feat that would be very difficult without the onset-anchor. This approach could be useful in modelling other diseases that have bounded progression scales (e.g. Parkinson's disease, Huntington's disease, or inclusion-body myositis). It is our hope that this model can be used by clinicians and statisticians to improve the efficacy of clinical trials and aid in finding treatments for ALS.

SUBMITTER: Karanevich AG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5801819 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using an onset-anchored Bayesian hierarchical model to improve predictions for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease progression.

Karanevich Alex G AG Statland Jeffrey M JM Gajewski Byron J BJ He Jianghua J

BMC medical research methodology 20180206 1

<h4>Background</h4>Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), also known as Lou Gehrig's disease, is a rare disease with extreme between-subject variability, especially with respect to rate of disease progression. This makes modelling a subject's disease progression, which is measured by the ALS Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS), very difficult. Consider the problem of predicting a subject's ALSFRS score at 9 or 12 months after a given time-point.<h4>Methods</h4>We obtained ALS subject data from the Po ...[more]

PMID: 29409450

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Project description:BackgroundAmyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is an adult-onset neurodegenerative disease progressively affecting upper and lower motor neurons in the brain and spinal cord. Mean life expectancy is three to five years, with paralysis of muscles, respiratory failure and loss of vital functions being the common causes of death. Clinical manifestations of ALS are heterogeneous due to the mix of anatomic regions involvement and the variability in disease course; consequently, diagnosis and prognosis at the level of individual patient is really challenging. Prediction of ALS progression and stratification of patients into meaningful subgroups have been long-standing interests to clinical practice, research and drug development.MethodsWe developed a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model on more than 4500 ALS patients included in the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials Database (PRO-ACT), in order to detect probabilistic relationships among clinical variables and identify risk factors related to survival and loss of vital functions. Furthermore, the DBN was used to simulate the temporal evolution of an ALS cohort predicting survival and the time to impairment of vital functions (communication, swallowing, gait and respiration). A first attempt to stratify patients by risk factors and simulate the progression of ALS subgroups was also implemented.ResultsThe DBN model provided the prediction of ALS most probable trajectories over time in terms of important clinical outcomes, including survival and loss of autonomy in functional domains. Furthermore, it allowed the identification of biomarkers related to patients' clinical status as well as vital functions, and unrevealed their probabilistic relationships. For instance, DBN found that bicarbonate and calcium levels influence survival time; moreover, the model evidenced dependencies over time among phosphorus level, movement impairment and creatinine. Finally, our model provided a tool to stratify patients into subgroups of different prognosis studying the effect of specific variables, or combinations of them, on either survival time or time to loss of autonomy in specific functional domains.ConclusionsThe analysis of the risk factors and the simulation allowed by our DBN model might enable better support for ALS prognosis as well as a deeper insight into disease manifestations, in a context of a personalized medicine approach.

Dataset Information

Using an onset-anchored Bayesian hierarchical model to improve predictions for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease progression.

Publications

Using an onset-anchored Bayesian hierarchical model to improve predictions for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disease progression.

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