Dataset Information

Impact of a Hypothetical Infectious Disease Outbreak on US Exports and Export-Based Jobs.

ABSTRACT: We estimated the impact on the US export economy of an illustrative infectious disease outbreak scenario in Southeast Asia that has 3 stages starting in 1 country and, if uncontained, spreads to 9 countries. We used 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola epidemic-related World Bank estimates of 3.3% and 16.1% reductions in gross domestic product (GDP). We also used US Department of Commerce job data to calculate export-related jobs at risk to any outbreak-related disruption in US exports. Assuming a direct correlation between GDP reductions and reduced demand for US exports, we estimated that the illustrative outbreak would cost from $16 million to $27 million (1 country) to $10 million to $18 billion (9 countries) and place 1,500 to almost 1.4 million export-related US jobs at risk. Our analysis illustrates how global health security is enhanced, and the US economy is protected, when public health threats are rapidly detected and contained at their source.

SUBMITTER: Bambery Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5815448 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan/Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Impact of a Hypothetical Infectious Disease Outbreak on US Exports and Export-Based Jobs.

Bambery Zoe Z Cassell Cynthia H CH Bunnell Rebecca E RE Roy Kakoli K Ahmed Zara Z Payne Rebecca L RL Meltzer Martin I MI

Health security 20180101 1

We estimated the impact on the US export economy of an illustrative infectious disease outbreak scenario in Southeast Asia that has 3 stages starting in 1 country and, if uncontained, spreads to 9 countries. We used 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola epidemic-related World Bank estimates of 3.3% and 16.1% reductions in gross domestic product (GDP). We also used US Department of Commerce job data to calculate export-related jobs at risk to any outbreak-related disruption in US exports. Assuming a direct ...[more]

PMID: 29405775

Similar Datasets

Project description:BACKGROUND:Outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases often occur in crowded places. To understand the pattern of spread of an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease and provide a theoretical basis for targeted implementation of scientific prevention and control, we attempted to establish a stochastic model to simulate an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease at a military camp. This model fits the general pattern of disease transmission and further enriches theories on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. METHODS:We established an enclosed system of 500 people exposed to adenovirus type 7 (ADV 7) in a military camp. During the infection period, the patients transmitted the virus randomly to susceptible people. The spread of the epidemic under militarized management mode was simulated using a computer model named "the random collision model", and the effects of factors such as the basic reproductive number (R0), time of isolation of the patients (TOI), interval between onset and isolation (IOI), and immunization rates (IR) on the developmental trend of the epidemic were quantitatively analysed. RESULTS:Once the R0 exceeded 1.5, the median attack rate increased sharply; when R0 = 3, with a delay in the TOI, the attack rate increased gradually and eventually remained stable. When the IOI exceeded 2.3 days, the median attack rate also increased dramatically. When the IR exceeded 0.5, the median attack rate approached zero. The median generation time was 8.26 days, (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.84-8.69 days). The partial rank correlation coefficients between the attack rate of the epidemic and R0, TOI, IOI, and IR were 0.61, 0.17, 0.45, and - 0.27, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The random collision model not only simulates how an epidemic spreads with superior precision but also allows greater flexibility in setting the activities of the exposure population and different types of infectious diseases, which is conducive to furthering exploration of the epidemiological characteristics of epidemic outbreaks.

Dataset Information

Impact of a Hypothetical Infectious Disease Outbreak on US Exports and Export-Based Jobs.

Publications

Impact of a Hypothetical Infectious Disease Outbreak on US Exports and Export-Based Jobs.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets