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A hierarchical modeling approach for assessing the safety of exposure to complex antiretroviral drug regimens during pregnancy.

ABSTRACT: Combination antiretroviral regimens have achieved tremendous success in reducing perinatal HIV transmission, and have become standard of care in pregnant women with HIV. However, the large variety of combination antiretroviral regimens utilized in practice raises the question of whether some of these highly potent drugs pose other risks to the pregnancy or infant. While HIV-infected pregnant women are almost always exposed to multiple antiretrovirals concurrently, standard safety screening strategies typically consider each individual antiretroviral separately, which fails to account for potential confounding due to simultaneous exposure to other antiretrovirals. In this paper, we evaluate a hierarchical modeling approach which groups antiretrovirals by drug class to screen for the safety of antiretrovirals taken during pregnancy, while still providing individual antiretroviral drug effect estimates. In simulation studies, we observed that the hierarchical approach may be advantageous as compared to considering each antiretroviral drug separately or simultaneously evaluating all antiretrovirals in a fixed effect model, particularly when there is prior evidence suggesting drugs from the same class behave similarly on the outcome. The characteristics of the hierarchical approach are illustrated in an application evaluating risk of preterm birth using a study including over 2000 pregnancies representing over 100 antiretroviral combinations, each involving up to three drug classes.

SUBMITTER: Correia K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5818331 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A hierarchical modeling approach for assessing the safety of exposure to complex antiretroviral drug regimens during pregnancy.

Correia Katharine K Williams Paige L PL

Statistical methods in medical research 20171003 2

Combination antiretroviral regimens have achieved tremendous success in reducing perinatal HIV transmission, and have become standard of care in pregnant women with HIV. However, the large variety of combination antiretroviral regimens utilized in practice raises the question of whether some of these highly potent drugs pose other risks to the pregnancy or infant. While HIV-infected pregnant women are almost always exposed to multiple antiretrovirals concurrently, standard safety screening strat ...[more]

PMID: 28969502

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Project description:ImportanceMaternal antiretroviral treatment (ART) started before conception may increase the risk for adverse birth outcomes among women with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, but whether the risk differs by ART regimen is unknown.ObjectiveTo compare the risk for selected birth outcomes by maternal ART regimen.Design, setting, and participantsThis observational birth outcomes surveillance study compared all live births and stillbirths with a gestational age of at least 24 weeks in 8 geographically dispersed government hospitals throughout Botswana (approximately 45% of births nationwide). Data were collected from August 15, 2014, through August 15, 2016.ExposuresBirths among HIV-infected women who started 3-drug ART regimens before their last menstrual period and did not switch or stop ART in pregnancy were considered to be ART exposed from conception.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcomes were any adverse birth outcome, including stillbirth, preterm birth (<37 weeks), small size for gestational age (SGA; <10th percentile of weight for gestational age) or neonatal death (<28 days from delivery), and any severe adverse outcome, including very preterm birth (<32 weeks), very SGA (<3rd percentile of weight for gestational age), stillbirth, and neonatal death.ResultsInformation was available for 47?027 of 47?124 births (99.8%) at surveillance maternity hospitals (mean [SD] age of mothers, 26.86 [6.45] years). Among 11?932 HIV-exposed infants, 5780 (48.4%) were ART exposed from conception. Adverse birth outcomes were more common among HIV-exposed infants than HIV-unexposed infants (39.6% vs 28.9%; adjusted relative risk [ARR], 1.40; 95% CI, 1.36-1.44). The risk for any adverse birth outcome was lower among infants exposed from conception to tenofovir disoproxil fumarate, emtricitabine, and efavirenz (TDF-FTC-EFV) (901 of 2472 [36.4%]) compared with TDF-FTC and nevirapine (NVP) (317 of 760 [41.7%]; ARR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.04-1.27); TDF-FTC and lopinavir-ritonavir (TDF-FTC-LPV-R) (112 of 231 [48.5%]; ARR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.13-1.52); zidovudine, lamivudine, and NPV (ZDV-3TC-NVP) (647 of 1365 [47.4%]; ARR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.20-1.41); or ZDV-3TC-LPV-R (75 of 167 [44.9%]; ARR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.01-1.45). The risk for any severe adverse outcome was also lower among infants exposed from conception to TDF-FTC-EFV (303 of 2472 [12.3%]) compared with TDF-FTC-NVP (136 of 760 [17.9%]; ARR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.19-1.74), TDF-FTC-LPV-R (45 of 231 [19.5%]; ARR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.19-2.11), ZDV-3TC-NVP (283 of 1365 [20.7%]; ARR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.44-1.96), or ZDV-3TC-LPV-R (39 of 167 [23.4%]; ARR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.43-2.60) from conception. Compared with TDF-FTC-EFV, all other regimens were associated with higher risk for SGA; ZDV-3TC-NVP was associated with higher risk of stillbirth, very preterm birth, and neonatal death; and ZDV-3TC-LPV-R was associated with higher risk for preterm birth, very preterm birth, and neonatal death.Conclusions and relevanceAmong infants exposed to ART from conception, TDF-FTC-EFV was associated with a lower risk for adverse birth outcomes than other ART regimens.

Project description:ObjectiveTo evaluate potential adverse associations of individual antiretroviral medications used in combination antiretroviral therapy regimens on cardiac structure and function in youth with perinatally-acquired HIV infection (PHIV).DesignPHIV youth (N = 325) enrolled in a prospective multisite cohort study had a single echocardiogram at age 7-16 years to evaluate cardiac function and structure.MethodsWe applied several statistical approaches to evaluate associations between use of 18 individual antiretroviral medications with Z-scores for 11 measures of left ventricular function and structure. These included simultaneously evaluating all antiretroviral medications in adjusted linear regression models controlling for the false discovery rate (FDR), applying hierarchical models to estimate individual antiretroviral medication effects as deviations from drug class means, and evaluating latent measures of cardiac function and structure underlying multiple echocardiographic parameters.ResultsYouth taking combination regimens with a protease inhibitor (69%) had significantly better cardiac function than those on other regimens. After FDR control and adjustment for other antiretroviral medications, no individual antiretroviral medication was significantly associated with any measure of left ventricular function, but zidovudine was associated with higher adjusted mean Z-scores for one measure of left ventricular structure (end-systolic wall stress). Factor analysis identified three latent factors: heart function, heart size, and heart wall stress. Lopinavir was associated with better heart function scores, whereas zidovudine was associated with higher wall stress scores. Zidovudine and nevirapine were associated with higher heart size factor scores.ConclusionsDespite cardioprotective effects of combination regimens in PHIV youth, individual antiretroviral medications were associated with altered cardiac structure, which could progress to symptomatic cardiomyopathy in adulthood.

Project description:WHO recommends ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor with two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors in HIV-infected patients failing non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based first-line treatment. Here, we aimed to provide more evidence for the choice of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor and boosted protease inhibitor.ANRS 12169 is a 48-week, randomized, open-label, non-inferiority trial in three African cities, comparing efficacy and safety of three second-line regimens.Patients failing non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy with confirmed plasma HIV-1 viral load above 1000?copies/ml were randomly assigned to tenofovir/emtricitabine + lopinavir/ritonavir (control group as per WHO recommendations), abacavir + didanosine + lopinavir/ritonavir (ABC/ddI group) or tenofovir/emtricitabine + darunavir/ritonavir (DRV group) regimens. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients with plasma vral load below 50?copies/ml at week 48 in the modified intention-to-treat population. Non-inferiority was pre-specified with a 15% margin.Of the 454 randomized patients, 451 were included in the analysis. Globally, 294 (65.2%) and 375 (83.2%) patients had viral load below 50 and 200?copies/ml, respectively, at week 48. The primary endpoint was achieved in 105 (69.1%) control group patients versus 92 (63.4%) in the ABC/ddI (difference 5.6%, 95% confidence interval -5.1 to 16.4) and 97 (63.0%) in the DRV (difference 6.1%, 95% confidence interval -4.5 to 16.7) groups (non-inferiority not shown). Overall, less number of patients with baseline viral load at least 100?000?copies/ml (n?=?122) had a viral load below 50?copies/ml at week 48 (37.7 versus 75.4%; P?<?0.001).The three second-line regimens obtained similar and satisfactory virologic control and confirmed the WHO recommendation (TDF/FTC/LPVr) as a valid option. However, the suboptimal response for patients with high viral load warrants research for improved strategies.

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A hierarchical modeling approach for assessing the safety of exposure to complex antiretroviral drug regimens during pregnancy.

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A hierarchical modeling approach for assessing the safety of exposure to complex antiretroviral drug regimens during pregnancy.

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