Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action.

ABSTRACT: Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2?m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2?°C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5?m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2?m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1?m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

SUBMITTER: Mengel M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5820313 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature