Dataset Information

Robust inference in summary data Mendelian randomization via the zero modal pleiotropy assumption.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Mendelian randomization (MR) is being increasingly used to strengthen causal inference in observational studies. Availability of summary data of genetic associations for a variety of phenotypes from large genome-wide association studies (GWAS) allows straightforward application of MR using summary data methods, typically in a two-sample design. In addition to the conventional inverse variance weighting (IVW) method, recently developed summary data MR methods, such as the MR-Egger and weighted median approaches, allow a relaxation of the instrumental variable assumptions.

Methods

Here, a new method - the mode-based estimate (MBE) - is proposed to obtain a single causal effect estimate from multiple genetic instruments. The MBE is consistent when the largest number of similar (identical in infinite samples) individual-instrument causal effect estimates comes from valid instruments, even if the majority of instruments are invalid. We evaluate the performance of the method in simulations designed to mimic the two-sample summary data setting, and demonstrate its use by investigating the causal effect of plasma lipid fractions and urate levels on coronary heart disease risk.

Results

The MBE presented less bias and lower type-I error rates than other methods under the null in many situations. Its power to detect a causal effect was smaller compared with the IVW and weighted median methods, but was larger than that of MR-Egger regression, with sample size requirements typically smaller than those available from GWAS consortia.

Conclusions

The MBE relaxes the instrumental variable assumptions, and should be used in combination with other approaches in sensitivity analyses.

SUBMITTER: Hartwig FP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5837715 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Robust inference in summary data Mendelian randomization via the zero modal pleiotropy assumption.

Hartwig Fernando Pires FP Davey Smith George G Bowden Jack J

International journal of epidemiology 20171201 6

<h4>Background</h4>Mendelian randomization (MR) is being increasingly used to strengthen causal inference in observational studies. Availability of summary data of genetic associations for a variety of phenotypes from large genome-wide association studies (GWAS) allows straightforward application of MR using summary data methods, typically in a two-sample design. In addition to the conventional inverse variance weighting (IVW) method, recently developed summary data MR methods, such as the MR-Eg ...[more]

PMID: 29040600

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Project description:BackgroundTwo-sample summary-data Mendelian randomization (MR) incorporating multiple genetic variants within a meta-analysis framework is a popular technique for assessing causality in epidemiology. If all genetic variants satisfy the instrumental variable (IV) and necessary modelling assumptions, then their individual ratio estimates of causal effect should be homogeneous. Observed heterogeneity signals that one or more of these assumptions could have been violated.MethodsCausal estimation and heterogeneity assessment in MR require an approximation for the variance, or equivalently the inverse-variance weight, of each ratio estimate. We show that the most popular 'first-order' weights can lead to an inflation in the chances of detecting heterogeneity when in fact it is not present. Conversely, ostensibly more accurate 'second-order' weights can dramatically increase the chances of failing to detect heterogeneity when it is truly present. We derive modified weights to mitigate both of these adverse effects.ResultsUsing Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the modified weights outperform first- and second-order weights in terms of heterogeneity quantification. Modified weights are also shown to remove the phenomenon of regression dilution bias in MR estimates obtained from weak instruments, unlike those obtained using first- and second-order weights. However, with small numbers of weak instruments, this comes at the cost of a reduction in estimate precision and power to detect a causal effect compared with first-order weighting. Moreover, first-order weights always furnish unbiased estimates and preserve the type I error rate under the causal null. We illustrate the utility of the new method using data from a recent two-sample summary-data MR analysis to assess the causal role of systolic blood pressure on coronary heart disease risk.ConclusionsWe propose the use of modified weights within two-sample summary-data MR studies for accurately quantifying heterogeneity and detecting outliers in the presence of weak instruments. Modified weights also have an important role to play in terms of causal estimation (in tandem with first-order weights) but further research is required to understand their strengths and weaknesses in specific settings.

Project description:Multiple sclerosis is a complex autoimmune disease caused by a combination of genetic and environmental factors. Translation of Genome-Wide Association Study findings into therapeutics and effective preventive strategies has been limited to date. We used summary-data-based Mendelian randomization to synthesize findings from public expression quantitative trait locus, methylation quantitative trait locus and Multiple Sclerosis Genome-Wide Association Study datasets. By correlating the effects of methylation on multiple sclerosis, methylation on expression and expression on multiple sclerosis susceptibility, we prioritize genetic loci with evidence of influencing multiple sclerosis susceptibility. We overlay these findings onto a list of 'druggable' genes, i.e. genes which are currently, or could theoretically, be targeted by therapeutic compounds. We use GeNets and search tool for the retrieval of interacting genes/proteins to identify protein-protein interactions and druggable pathways enriched in our results. We extend these findings to a model of Epstein-Barr virus-infected B cells, lymphoblastoid cell lines. We conducted a systematic review of prioritized genes using the Open Targets platform to identify completed and planned trials targeting prioritized genes in multiple sclerosis and related disease areas. Expression of 45 genes in peripheral blood was strongly associated with multiple sclerosis susceptibility (False discovery rate 0.05). Of these 45 genes, 20 encode a protein which is currently targeted by an existing therapeutic compound. These genes were enriched for Gene Ontology terms pertaining to immune system function and leucocyte signalling. We refined this prioritized gene list by restricting to loci where CpG site methylation was associated with multiple sclerosis susceptibility, with gene expression and where expression was associated with multiple sclerosis susceptibility. This approach yielded a list of 15 prioritized druggable target genes for which there was evidence of a pathway linking methylation, expression and multiple sclerosis. Five of these 15 genes are targeted by existing drugs and three were replicated in a smaller expression Quantitative Trait Loci dataset (CD40, MERTK and PARP1). In lymphoblastoid cell lines, this approach prioritized 7 druggable gene targets, of which only one was prioritized by the multi-omic approach in peripheral blood (FCRL3). Systematic review of Open Targets revealed multiple early-phase trials targeting 13/20 prioritized genes in disorders related to multiple sclerosis. We use public datasets and summary-data-based Mendelian randomization to identify a list of prioritized druggable genetic targets in multiple sclerosis. We hope our findings could be translated into a platform for developing targeted preventive therapies.

Dataset Information

Robust inference in summary data Mendelian randomization via the zero modal pleiotropy assumption.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Robust inference in summary data Mendelian randomization via the zero modal pleiotropy assumption.

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