Dataset Information

Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5.

ABSTRACT: Previous studies examining future changes in heat/cold waves using climate model ensembles have been limited to grid cell-average quantities. Here, we make use of an urban parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that represents the urban heat island effect, which can exacerbate extreme heat but may ameliorate extreme cold in urban relative to rural areas. Heat/cold wave characteristics are derived for U.S. regions from a bias-corrected CESM 30-member ensemble for climate outcomes driven by the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and a 15-member ensemble driven by RCP4.5. Significant differences are found between urban and grid cell-average heat/cold wave characteristics. Most notably, urban heat waves for 1981-2005 are more intense than grid cell-average by 2.1°C (southeast) to 4.6°C (southwest), while cold waves are less intense. We assess the avoided climate impacts of urban heat/cold waves in 2061-2080 when following the lower forcing scenario. Urban heat wave days per year increase from 6 in 1981-2005 to up to 92 (southeast) in RCP8.5. Following RCP4.5 reduces heat wave days by about 50%. Large avoided impacts are demonstrated for individual communities; e.g., the longest heat wave for Houston in RCP4.5 is 38 days while in RCP8.5 there is one heat wave per year that is longer than a month with some lasting the entire summer. Heat waves also start later in the season in RCP4.5 (earliest are in early May) than RCP8.5 (mid-April), compared to 1981-2005 (late May). In some communities, cold wave events decrease from 2 per year for 1981-2005 to one-in-five year events in RCP4.5 and one-in-ten year events in RCP8.5.

SUBMITTER: Oleson KW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5839517 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5.

Oleson K W KW Anderson G B GB Jones B B McGinnis S A SA Sanderson B B

Climatic change 20150923 3-4

Previous studies examining future changes in heat/cold waves using climate model ensembles have been limited to grid cell-average quantities. Here, we make use of an urban parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that represents the urban heat island effect, which can exacerbate extreme heat but may ameliorate extreme cold in urban relative to rural areas. Heat/cold wave characteristics are derived for U.S. regions from a bias-corrected CESM 30-member ensemble for climate outc ...[more]

PMID: 29520121

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Project description:Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) is a recognized risk factor for the global burden of disease in human populations. We are presenting here the application of toxicogenomics in the evaluation of the toxic effects of organic content of atmospheric particle matter (PM), from urban and rural environments (city of Barcelona and village of La Pobla, NE Spain), using the developing zebrafish embryo. The main goal is to identify the metabolic pathways involved in the adverse effects observed in zebrafish embryos exposed to PM organic content from urban and rural environments, also allowing the selection of genes of interest that are differentially expressed. The relevance of particle size to the PM toxicity is also addressed. Indeed, the zebrafish embryos were exposed to PM of aerodynamic diameter larger than 7.2 Î¼m and smaller than 0.5 Î¼m (PM10 and PM0.5, respectively). PM0.5 concentrated biological and toxic activities linked to organic substances. Transcriptomic analyses showed strong induction of the AhR signalling pathway (a.k.a. dioxin-like activity) for embryos exposed to both rural and urban extracts, correlating with the concentrations of PAHs. Urban extracts, with strong contribution of traffic emissions, specifically de-regulated oxidative stress-related genes, as well as pancreatic and eye-lens specific genes, two organs known to be affected by air pollution in humans. Exposure to rural extracts, with high contribution of wood burning emissions, affected genes implicated in basic cellular functions, in agreement with their strong embryotoxicity. Extracts from rural and urban samples elicited both common and specific transcriptome responses, suggesting different potentially adverse outcomes depending on PM source and composition. The authors thank the financial support of the Spanish Ministry (project TEA-PARTICLE, grant number CGL2011-29621) and the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology for the doctoral grant of Sofia R. Mesquita (SFRH/BD/80710/2011) funded by the Program POPH-QREN through the Portuguese Ministry of Education and Science and the European Social Fund, and support through project PEst-C/MAR/LA0015/2013. The PM filter samples used in the present study were PM10 and PM0.5 from the urban site - total of 4 samples from 2 sampling months; and PM0.5 from the rural site - total of 2 samples from 2 sampling months (PM10 samples from the rural site were not tested due to their very low concentration in organic compounds, and insignificant biological activity, previously measured). Sampling occurred during the cold periods of the year 2012/2013. The organic fraction of PM samples was extracted by sonication using a mixture of dichloromethane:methanol. Then, the extracts were filtered, evaporated and re-dissolved in Dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO). Zebrafish fertilized eggs were exposed to PM organic extracts (0.2% DMSO) from the urban and rural sites from 24 to 120h post-fertilization. Total RNA was isolated from whole embryos (pools of 20 individuals), using Trizol reagent protocol (Invitrogen Life Technologies, Carlsberg, CA). The microarray study was performed using the Agilent Two-colour D. rerio Oligo Microarray v3 platform, following the Agilent Microarray â?? Based Gene Expression Analysis protocol. Three biological replicates were performed for each PM sample and controls. Biological replicates, a technical replicate and a self-to-self, were simultaneously amplified and labelled using Cyanine 3 (Cy3) and Cyanine 5 (Cy5) dye. After cRNA purification (RNeasy Kit, Quiagen GmbH, Hilden, Germany), the cRNA concentration and labelling were quantified in the NanoDrop spectrophotometer, obtaining incorporation rates in the range of 15-20pmol of cyanide dye/Âµl cRNA and yield values > 0.825ug, as recommended. cRNA was fragmented and hybridized in 4x44K arrays, for 17h at 65oC. After the hybridization the array slides were washed, and immediately scanned using Microarray Scanner Agilent G2505C system. Data was extracted using Agilent Feature Extraction Software v10.5.1.1, and the quality of microarray data was evaluated using the Quality Control report provided by Agilent Software. Based on the microarray data analysis, 22 primers were selected and designed using Primer Express 2.0 software (Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA). Genes were quantified by real-time PCR to validate the microarray data, and a subset of 13 genes were further selected by their robust behaviour in the validation assays, allowing to differentiate the toxic potential of PM from urban and rural sources.

Dataset Information

Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5.

Publications

Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5.

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