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Structural Sensitivity in HIV Modeling: A Case Study of Vaccination.

ABSTRACT: Structural assumptions in infectious disease models, such as the choice of network or compartmental model type or the inclusion of different types of heterogeneity across individuals, might affect model predictions as much as or more than the choice of input parameters. We explore the potential implications of structural assumptions on HIV model predictions and policy conclusions. We illustrate the value of inference robustness assessment through a case study of the effects of a hypothetical HIV vaccine in multiple population subgroups over eight related transmission models, which we sequentially modify to vary over two dimensions: parameter complexity (e.g., the inclusion of age and HCV comorbidity) and contact/simulation complexity (e.g., aggregated compartmental vs. individual/disaggregated compartmental vs. network models). We find that estimates of HIV incidence reductions from network models and individual compartmental models vary, but those differences are overwhelmed by the differences in HIV incidence between such models and the aggregated compartmental models (which aggregate groups of individuals into compartments). Complexities such as age structure appear to buffer the effects of aggregation and increase the threshold of net vaccine effectiveness at which aggregated models begin to overestimate reductions. The differences introduced by parameter complexity in estimated incidence reduction also translate into substantial differences in cost-effectiveness estimates. Parameter complexity does not appear to play a consistent role in differentiating the projections of network models.

SUBMITTER: Bernard CL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5844493 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectivesThis study used a health belief theory derived framework and structural equation model to examine moderators, mediators, and direct and indirect predictors of childhood vaccination.MethodsA secondary analysis was conducted using data collected from a cross-sectional survey of a random sample of 1599 parents living in urban and rural areas of Mysore district, India. Applying two-stage probability proportionate-to-size sampling, adolescent girls attending 7th through 10th grades in 23 schools were selected to take home a questionnaire to be answered by their parents to primarily assess HPV vaccine intentions. Parents were also asked whether their children had received one dose of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin; three doses of Diphtheria, Pertussis, Tetanus; three doses of oral Polio vaccine; and one dose of Measles vaccine. In addition, parents were asked about their attitudes towards childhood vaccination.ResultsOut of the 1599 parents, 52.2% reported that their children had received all the routine vaccines (fully vaccinated); 42.7% reported their children had missed at least one routine vaccine, and 5.2% reported that their children had missed all routine vaccinations. Perceptions about the benefits/facilitators to childhood vaccination significantly predicted the full vaccination rate (standardized regression coefficient (β) = 0.29) directly and mediated the effect of parental education (β = 0.11) and employment (β = -0.06) on the rate of full vaccination. Parental education was significantly associated indirectly with higher rates of full vaccination (β = 0.11). Parental employment was significantly associated indirectly with decreasing rates of full vaccination (β = -0.05). Area of residence moderated the role of religion (β = 0.24) and the 'number of children' in a family (β = 0.33) on parental perceptions about barriers to childhood vaccination. The model to data fit was acceptable (Root Mean Square Error of Approximation = 0.02, 95% CI 0.018 to 0.023; Comparative Fit Index = 0.92; Tucker-Lewis Index = 0.91).ConclusionsFull vaccination rate was relatively low among children in Mysore, especially among parents who were unsure about the benefits of routine vaccination and those with low educational levels. Interventions increasing awareness of the benefits of childhood vaccination that target rural parents with lower levels of education may help increase the rate of full childhood vaccination in India.

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Structural Sensitivity in HIV Modeling: A Case Study of Vaccination.

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