Dataset Information

Competing Risks of Fracture and Death in Older Adults with Chronic Kidney Disease.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:To examine whether chronic kidney disease (CKD) at any stage is associated with fracture risk after adjusting for competing mortality and to determine whether age or race modify the relationship between CKD and fracture risk. DESIGN:Prospective cohort study. SETTING:Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) national healthcare system. PARTICIPANTS:Men receiving VA primary care aged 65 and older with no history of fracture or osteoporosis therapy (N = 712, 918). MEASUREMENTS:We determined CKD stage from baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Participants were followed for up to 10 years for occurrence of any fracture or death. We ascertained fractures and covariates from VA medical records and Medicare claims. RESULTS:Of the 356,459 older veterans with CKD (defined as eGFR <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 ), 15.7% (n = 56,032) experienced a fracture, and 43.0% (n = 153,438) died over a median time at risk of 5.2 years. Veterans with CKD Stages 3 to 5 had a greater risk of death than those without CKD, which biased estimates from traditional survival models. Competing risk models showed that Stage 3 CKD was associated with greater hazard (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (sdHR) = 1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.02-1.11) of fracture (than those without CKD) and a trend toward greater hazard for Stage 4 (sdHR = 1.07, 95% CI = 0.94-1.22) and Stage 5 (sdHR = 1.31, 95% CI = 0.97-1.77) CKD. Age, race, and bone mineral density did not modify the relationship between CKD and fracture risk. CONCLUSIONS:In older male veterans, CKD, including Stage 3, is associated with a moderately greater fracture risk irrespective of age, race, or bone mineral density.

SUBMITTER: Hall RK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5849495 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Competing Risks of Fracture and Death in Older Adults with Chronic Kidney Disease.

Hall Rasheeda K RK Sloane Richard R Pieper Carl C Van Houtven Courtney C LaFleur Joanne J Adler Robert R Colón-Emeric Cathleen C

Journal of the American Geriatrics Society 20180110 3

<h4>Objectives</h4>To examine whether chronic kidney disease (CKD) at any stage is associated with fracture risk after adjusting for competing mortality and to determine whether age or race modify the relationship between CKD and fracture risk.<h4>Design</h4>Prospective cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) national healthcare system.<h4>Participants</h4>Men receiving VA primary care aged 65 and older with no history of fracture or osteoporosis therapy (N = 712, 918).< ...[more]

PMID: 29319880

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Project description:ImportanceKidney failure risk prediction has implications for disease management, including advance care planning in adults with severe (ie, estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] category 4, [G4]) chronic kidney disease (G4-CKD). Existing prediction tools do not account for the competing risk of death.ObjectiveTo compare predictions of kidney failure (defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <10 mL/min/1.73 m2 or initiation of kidney replacement therapy) from models that do and do not account for the competing risk of death in adults with G4-CKD.Design, setting, and participantsThis prognostic study linked population-based laboratory and administrative data (2002-2017) from 2 Canadian provinces (Alberta and Manitoba) to compare 3 kidney risk models: the standard Cox regression, cause-specific Cox regression, and Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard model. Participants were adults with incident G4-CKD (eGFR 15-29 mL/min/1.73 m2). Data analysis occurred between July and December 2020.Main outcomes and measuresThe performance of kidney risk models at prespecified times and across categories of baseline characteristics, using calibration, reclassification, and discrimination (for competing risks). Predictive characteristics were age, sex, albuminuria, eGFR, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease.ResultsThe development and validation cohorts included 14 619 (7070 [48.4%] men; mean [SD] age, 74.1 [12.8] years) and 2295 (1152 [50.2] men; mean [SD] age, 71.9 [14.0] years) adults, respectively. The 3 models had comparable calibration up to 2 years from entry. Beyond 2 years, the standard Cox regression overestimated the risk of kidney failure. At 4 years, for example, risks predicted from standard Cox were 40% for people whose observed risks were less than 30%. At 2 years (risk cutoffs 10%-20%) and 5 years (risk cutoffs 15%-30%), 788 (5.4%) and 2162 (14.8%) people in the development cohort were correctly reclassified into lower- or higher-risk categories by the Fine-Gray model and incorrectly reclassified by standard Cox regression (the opposite was observed in 272 patients [1.9%] and 0 patients, respectively). In the validation cohort, 115 (5.0%) individuals and 389 (16.9%) individuals at 2 and 5 years, respectively, were correctly reclassified into lower- or higher-risk categories by the Fine-Gray model and incorrectly reclassified by the standard Cox regression; the opposite was observed in 98 (4.3%) individuals and 0 individuals, respectively. Differences in discrimination emerged at 4 to 5 years in the development cohort and at 1 to 2 years in the validation cohort (0.85 vs 0.86 and 0.78 vs 0.8, respectively). Performance differences were minimal during the entire follow-up in people at lower risk of death (ie, aged ≤65 years or without cardiovascular disease or diabetes) and greater in those with a higher risk of death. At 5 years, for example, in people aged 65 years or older, predicted risks from standard Cox were 50% where observed risks were less than 30%. Similar miscalibration was observed at 5 years in people with albuminuria greater than 30 mg/mmol, diabetes, or cardiovascular disease.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, predictions about the risk of kidney failure were minimally affected by consideration of competing risks during the first 2 years after developing G4-CKD. However, traditional methods increasingly overestimated the risk of kidney failure with longer follow-up time, especially among older patients and those with more comorbidity.

Project description:AimTo show a new paradigm of simultaneously testing whether breast cancer therapies impact other causes of death.MethodsMA.14 allocated 667 postmenopausal women to 5 years of tamoxifen 20 mg/daily ± 2 years of octreotide 90 mg, given by depot intramuscular injections monthly. Event-free survival was the primary endpoint of MA.14; at median 7.9 years, the tamoxifen+octreotide and tamoxifen arms had similar event-free survival (P = 0.62). Overall survival was a secondary endpoint, and the two trial arms also had similar overall survival (P = 0.86). We used the median 9.8 years follow-up to examine by intention-to-treat, the multivariate time-to-breast cancer-specific (BrCa) and other cause (OC) mortality with log-normal survival analysis adjusted by treatment and stratification factors. We tested whether baseline factors including Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1), IGF binding protein-3, C-peptide, body mass index, and 25-hydroxy vitamin D were associated with (1) all cause mortality, and if so and (2) cause-specific mortality. We also fit step-wise forward cause-specific adjusted models.ResultsThe analyses were performed on 329 patients allocated tamoxifen and 329 allocated tamoxifen+octreotide. The median age of MA.14 patients was 60.1 years: 447 (82%) < 70 years and 120 (18%) ≥ 70 years. There were 170 deaths: 106 (62.3%) BrCa; 55 (32.4%) OC, of which 24 were other malignancies, 31 other causes of death; 9 (5.3%) patients with unknown cause of death were excluded from competing risk assessments. BrCa and OC deaths were not significantly different by treatment arm (P = 0.40): tamoxifen patients experienced 50 BrCa and 32 OC deaths, while tamoxifen + octreotide patients experienced 56 BrCa and 23 OC deaths. Proportionately more deaths (P = 0.004) were from BrCa for patients < 70 years, where 70% of deaths were due to BrCa, compared to 54% for those ≥ 70 years of age. The proportion of deaths from OC increased with increasing body mass index (BMI) (P = 0.02). Higher pathologic T and N were associated with more BrCa deaths (P < 0.0001 and 0.002, respectively). The cumulative hazard plot for BrCa and OC mortality indicated the concurrent accrual of both types of death throughout follow-up, that is the existence of competing risks of mortality. MA.14 therapy did not impact mortality (P = 0.77). Three baseline patient and tumor characteristics were differentially associated with cause of death: older patients experienced more OC (P = 0.01) mortality; patients with T1 tumors and hormone receptor positive tumors had less BrCa mortality (respectively, P = 0.01, P = 0.06). Additionally, step-wise cause-specific models indicated that patients with node negative disease experienced less BrCa mortality (P = 0.002); there was weak evidence that, lower C-peptide (P = 0.08) was associated with less BrCa mortality, while higher BMI (P = 0.01) was associated with worse OC mortality.ConclusionWe demonstrate here a new paradigm of simultaneous testing of therapeutics directed at multiple diseases for which postmenopausal women are concurrently at risk. Octreotide LAR did not significantly impact breast cancer or other cause mortality, although different baseline factors influenced type of death.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:Chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk staging is based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR). However, the relationship between all-cause hospitalization risk and the current CKD staging system has not been well studied among older adults, despite a high prevalence of CKD and a high risk of hospitalization in old age. METHODS:Among 4,766 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, CKD was staged according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria, using creatinine-based eGFR (eGFRcr) and ACR. Incidence rates of all-cause hospitalization associated with each CKD risk group were analyzed using negative binomial regression. Additionally, cause-specific hospitalization risks for cardiovascular, infectious, kidney, and other diseases were estimated. The impacts of using cystatin C-based eGFR (eGFRcys) to estimate the prevalence of CKD and risks of hospitalization were also quantified. RESULTS:Participants experienced 5,548 hospitalizations and 29% had CKD. Hospitalization rates per 1,000 person-years according to KDIGO risk categories were 208-223 ("low risk"), 288-376 ("moderately increased risk"), 363-548 ("high risk"), and 499-1083 ("very high risk"). The increased risk associated with low eGFR and high ACR persisted in adjusted analyses, examinations of cause-specific hospitalizations, and when CKD was staged by eGFRcys or eGFRcr-cys, a combined equation based on both creatinine and cystatin C. In comparison to eGFRcr, staging by eGFRcys increased the prevalence of CKD to 50%, but hospitalization risks remained similarly high. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION:In older adults, decreased eGFR, increased ACR, and KDIGO risk stages based on a combination of these measures, were strong risk factors for hospitalization. These relationships were consistent, regardless of the marker used to estimate GFR, but the use of cystatin C resulted in a substantially higher prevalence of CKD than the use of creatinine. Older adults in the population with very high risk stages of CKD have hospitalization rates exceeding 500 per 1,000 person-years.

Project description:Background and objectivesWalking while talking is a dual cognitive-motor task that predicts frailty, falls, and cognitive decline in the general elderly population. Adults with CKD have gait abnormalities during usual walking. It is unknown whether they have greater gait abnormalities and cognitive-motor interference during walking while talking.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsCommunity-dwelling, nondisabled adults (n=330) ≥65 years of age underwent quantitative gait analysis, including walking while talking. Differences in walking-while-talking performance by CKD status were evaluated, and relative changes between walking-while-talking and walking alone performance were computed to quantify cognitive-motor interference (dual-task cost). Associations were tested using multivariable linear spline regression models, and independent gait domains were derived using factor analysis. CKD was defined as an eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2.ResultsCKD was present in 134 (41%) participants. Participants with CKD had slower gait speed along with various gait cycle abnormalities during walking while talking: among those with CKD, every 10-ml/min per 1.73 m2 lower eGFR was associated with 3.3-cm/s (95% confidence interval, 0.4 to 6.1) slower gait speed, 1.8-cm (95% confidence interval, 0.6 to 3.0) shorter step length, 1.1% (95% confidence interval, 0.6 to 1.7) less time in the swing phase, and 1.4% (95% confidence interval, 0.5 to 2.3) greater time in double support after multivariable adjustment. When comparing walking while talking with walking alone, every 10-ml/min per 1.73 m2 lower eGFR was associated with 1.8% (95% confidence interval, 0.5 to 3.2) greater decrease in time in the swing phase and 0.9% (95% confidence interval, 0.2 to 1.5) greater increase in time in the stance phase. Factor analysis identified three walking-while-talking domains and three dual-task cost domains: eGFR was associated specifically with the rhythm domain for both walking-while-talking and dual-task cost. Every 10-ml/min per 1.73 m2 lower eGFR was associated with a poorer performance of 0.2 SD (95% confidence interval, 0.1 to 0.3) for walking while talking and 0.2 SD (95% confidence interval, 0.03 to 0.3) for dual-task cost.ConclusionsDuring walking while talking, CKD is associated with gait abnormalities, possibly due to increased cognitive-motor interference.

Dataset Information

Competing Risks of Fracture and Death in Older Adults with Chronic Kidney Disease.

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Competing Risks of Fracture and Death in Older Adults with Chronic Kidney Disease.

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