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Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins?

ABSTRACT: Tufted Puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US. While there remains no consensus on the mechanisms driving these trends, population decreases in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem suggest climate-related factors, and in particular the indirect influence of sea-surface temperature on puffin prey. Here, we use three species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate projected shifts in habitat suitable for Tufted Puffin nesting for the year 2050 under two future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Ensemble model results indicate warming marine and terrestrial temperatures play a key role in the loss of suitable Tufted Puffin nesting conditions in the California Current under both business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) and moderated (RCP 4.5) carbon emission scenarios, and in particular, that mean summer sea-surface temperatures greater than 15 °C are likely to make habitat unsuitable for breeding. Under both emission scenarios, ensemble model results suggest that more than 92% of currently suitable nesting habitat in the California Current is likely to become unsuitable. Moreover, the models suggest a net loss of greater than 21% of suitable nesting sites throughout the entire North American range of the Tufted Puffin, regardless of emission-reduction strategies. These model results highlight continued Tufted Puffin declines-particularly among southern breeding colonies-and indicate a significant risk of near-term extirpation in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem.

SUBMITTER: Hart CJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5866916 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins?

Hart Christopher J CJ Kelly Ryan P RP Pearson Scott F SF

PeerJ 20180322

Tufted Puffin (<i>Fratercula cirrhata</i>) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US. While there remains no consensus on the mechanisms driving these trends, population decreases in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem suggest climate-related factors, and in particul ...[more]

PMID: 29593940

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Project description:BackgroundCommunity-driven invasion, also known as community coalescence, occurs widely in natural ecosystems. Despite that, our knowledge about the process and mechanisms controlling community-driven invasion in soil ecosystems is lacking. Here, we performed a set of coalescence experiments in soil microcosms and assessed impacts up to 60 days after coalescence by quantifying multiple traits (compositional, functional, and metabolic) of the invasive and coalescent communities.ResultsOur results showed that coalescences significantly triggered changes in the resident community's succession trajectory and functionality (carbohydrate metabolism), even when the size of the invasive community is small (~ 5% of the resident density) and 99% of the invaders failed to survive. The invasion impact was mainly due to the high suppression of constant residents (65% on average), leading to a lose-lose situation where both invaders and residents suffered with coalescence. Our results showed that surviving residents could benefit from the coalescence, which supports the theory of "competition-driven niche segregation" at the microbial community level. Furthermore, the result showed that both short- and long-term coalescence effects were predicted by similarity and unevenness indexes of compositional, functional, and metabolic traits of invasive communities. This indicates the power of multi-level traits in monitoring microbial community succession. In contrast, the varied importance of different levels of traits suggests that competitive processes depend on the composition of the invasive community.ConclusionsOur results shed light on the process and consequence of community coalescences and highlight that resource competition between invaders and residents plays a critical role in soil microbial community coalescences. These findings provide valuable insights for understanding and predicting soil microbial community succession in frequently disturbed natural and agroecosystems. Video Abstract.

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Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins?

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Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins?

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