Spatio-temporal coherence of dengue, chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in Merida, Mexico.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bisanzio D
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5870998 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundColombia has one of the highest burdens of arboviruses in South America. The country was in a state of hyperendemicity between 2014 and 2016, with co-circulation of several Aedes-borne viruses, including a syndemic of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in 2015.Methodology/principal findingsWe analyzed the cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika notified in Colombia from January 2014 to December 2018 by municipality and week. The trajectory and velocity of spread was studied using trend surface analysis, and spatio-temporal high-risk clusters for each disease in separate and for the three diseases simultaneously (multivariate) were identified using Kulldorff's scan statistics. During the study period, there were 366,628, 77,345 and 74,793 cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, respectively, in Colombia. The spread patterns for chikungunya and Zika were similar, although Zika's spread was accelerated. Both chikungunya and Zika mainly spread from the regions on the Atlantic coast and the south-west to the rest of the country. We identified 21, 16, and 13 spatio-temporal clusters of dengue, chikungunya and Zika, respectively, and, from the multivariate analysis, 20 spatio-temporal clusters, among which 7 were simultaneous for the three diseases. For all disease-specific analyses and the multivariate analysis, the most-likely cluster was identified in the south-western region of Colombia, including the Valle del Cauca department.Conclusions/significanceThe results further our understanding of emerging Aedes-borne diseases in Colombia by providing useful evidence on their potential site of entry and spread trajectory within the country, and identifying spatio-temporal disease-specific and multivariate high-risk clusters of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, information that can be used to target interventions.
| S-EPMC9439233 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Outbreaks of arbovirus infections vectored by invasive Aedes albopictus have already occurred and are predicted to become increasingly frequent in Southern Europe. We present a probabilistic model to assess risk of arbovirus outbreaks based on incident cases worldwide, on the probability of arrival of infected travelers, and on the abundance of the vector species. Our results show a significant risk of Chikungunya outbreak in Rome from mid June to October in simulations with high human biting rates (i.e. when ≥50% of the population is bitten every day). The outbreak risk is predicted to be highest for Chikungunya and null for Zika. Simulated increase of incident cases in selected endemic countries has no major impact on the outbreak risk. The model correctly estimated the number of imported cases and can be easily adapted to other urban areas where Ae. albopictus is the only potential vector present.
| S-EPMC6219586 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study was designed to assess whether churches in endemic dengue districts in Merida, Mexico provide suitable breeding habitats for mosquitoes and are potential sites for dengue virus (DENV) transmission. Churches were inspected for immature and adult mosquitoes once every week from November 2015 to October 2016. A total of 10,997 immatures of five species were collected. The most abundant species were Aedes aegypti (6,051) and Culex quinquefasciatus (3,018). The most common source of immature Ae. aegypti were buckets followed by disposable containers. Adult collections yielded 21,226 mosquitoes of nine species. The most common species were Cx. quinquefasciatus (15,215) and Ae. aegypti (3,902). Aedes aegypti were found all year long. Female Ae. aegypti (1,380) were sorted into pools (166) and assayed for flavivirus RNA by RT-PCR and Sanger sequencing. Two pools were positive for DENV (DENV-1 and 2). In conclusion, we demonstrated that some churches in Merida are infested with mosquitoes all year long and they potentially serve as sites for DENV transmission and should therefore be considered for inclusion in mosquito and arboviruses control and surveillance efforts.
| S-EPMC6376932 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe integration of house-screening and long-lasting insecticidal nets, known as insecticide-treated screening (ITS), can provide simple, safe, and low-tech Aedes aegypti control. Cluster randomised controlled trials in two endemic localities for Ae. aegypti of south Mexico, showed that ITS conferred both, immediate and sustained (~2 yr) impact on indoor-female Ae. aegypti infestations. Such encouraging results require further validation with studies quantifying more epidemiologically-related endpoints, including arbovirus infection in Ae. aegypti. We evaluated the efficacy of protecting houses with ITS on Ae. aegypti infestation and arbovirus infection during a Zika outbreak in Merida, Yucatan, Mexico.Methodology/principal findingsA two-arm cluster-randomised controlled trial evaluated the entomological efficacy of ITS compared to the absence of ITS (with both arms able to receive routine arbovirus vector control) in the neighbourhood Juan Pablo II of Merida. Cross-sectional entomological surveys quantified indoor adult mosquito infestation and arbovirus infection at baseline (pre-ITS installation) and throughout two post-intervention (PI) surveys spaced at 6-month intervals corresponding to dry/rainy seasons over one year (2016-2017). Household-surveys assessed the social reception of the intervention. Houses with ITS were 79-85% less infested with Aedes females than control houses up to one-year PI. A similar significant trend was observed for blood-fed Ae. aegypti females (76-82%). Houses with ITS had significantly less infected female Ae. aegypti than controls during the peak of the epidemic (OR = 0.15, 95%CI: 0.08-0.29), an effect that was significant up to a year PI (OR = 0.24, 0.15-0.39). Communities strongly accepted the intervention, due to its perceived mode of action, the prevalent risk for Aedes-borne diseases in the area, and the positive feedback from neighbours receiving ITS.Conclusions/significanceWe show evidence of the protective efficacy of ITS against an arboviral disease of major relevance, and discuss the relevance of our findings for intervention adoption.
| S-EPMC7853519 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Purpose of reviewDescribe the characteristics of chikungunya, dengue, and Zika in transplant recipients and immunocompromised hosts.Recent findingsStem cell/bone marrow grafts, organs, and blood transfusions can transmit CHIKV/DENV/ZIKV infections, which are clinically similar, resembling influenza-like illness. Laboratory confirmation is necessary. In the acute phase, RT-PCR is preferred. DENV and ZIKV serology may cross-react. Delayed engraftment and extended viruria is observed in ZIKV+/HSCT recipients, while longer viremia is observed in DENV+/HSCT patients. Arbovirus persistence in organ tissues is generally unknown. Vaccine development is in early stages for CHIKV/ZIKV. No data is available to recommend the licensed DENV vaccine in transplant recipients. In endemic areas, the assessment of epidemiological risk is mandatory. Donor deferral for 120 days in suspected or confirmed ZIKV+ has been recommended, while CHIKV+ donors should wait 30 days. No deferral is recommended for DENV+ donors. CHIKV/DENV/ZIKV tests should be included in the differential of febrile neutropenia and other transplant syndromes. Reassessment of DENV serology is urgently needed. Prospective studies are necessary to determine the impact of CHIKV/DENV/ZIKV in this special population.
| S-EPMC5857271 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundClimate variability influences the population dynamics of the Aedes aegypti mosquito that transmits the viruses that cause dengue, chikungunya and Zika. In recent years these diseases have grown considerably. Dengue is now the fastest-growing mosquito-transmitted disease worldwide, putting 40 per cent of the global population at risk. With no effective antiviral treatments or vaccines widely available, controlling mosquito population remains one of the most effective ways to prevent epidemics. This paper analyses the temporal and spatial dynamics of dengue in Mexico during 2000-2020 and that of chikungunya and Zika since they first appeared in the country in 2014 and 2015, respectively. This study aims to evaluate how seasonal climatological variability affects the potential risk of transmission of these mosquito-borne diseases. Mexico is among the world's most endemic countries in terms of dengue. Given its high incidence of other mosquito-borne diseases and its size and wide range of climates, it is a good case study.MethodsWe estimate the recently proposed mosquito-borne viral suitability index P, which measures the transmission potential of mosquito-borne pathogens. This index mathematically models how humidity, temperature and precipitation affect the number of new infections generated by a single infected adult female mosquito in a host population. We estimate this suitability index across all Mexico, at small-area level, on a daily basis during 2000-2020.ResultsWe find that the index P predicted risk transmission is strongly correlated with the areas and seasons with a high incidence of dengue within the country. This correlation is also high enough for chikungunya and Zika in Mexico. We also show the index P is sensitive to seasonal climatological variability, including extreme weather shocks.ConclusionsThe paper shows the dynamics of dengue, chikungunya and Zika in Mexico are strongly associated with seasonal climatological variability and the index P. This potential risk of transmission index, therefore, is a valuable tool for surveillance for mosquito-borne diseases, particularly in settings with varied climates and limited entomological capacity.
| S-EPMC9610358 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Dengue virus remains a significant public health challenge in Brazil, and seasonal preparation efforts are hindered by variable intra- and interseasonal dynamics. Here, we present a framework for characterizing weekly dengue activity at the Brazilian mesoregion level from 2010-2016 as time series properties that are relevant to forecasting efforts, focusing on outbreak shape, seasonal timing, and pairwise correlations in magnitude and onset. In addition, we use a combination of 18 satellite remote sensing imagery, weather, clinical, mobility, and census data streams and regression methods to identify a parsimonious set of covariates that explain each time series property. The models explained 54% of the variation in outbreak shape, 38% of seasonal onset, 34% of pairwise correlation in outbreak timing, and 11% of pairwise correlation in outbreak magnitude. Regions that have experienced longer periods of drought sensitivity, as captured by the "normalized burn ratio," experienced less intense outbreaks, while regions with regular fluctuations in relative humidity had less regular seasonal outbreaks. Both the pairwise correlations in outbreak timing and outbreak trend between mesoresgions were best predicted by distance. Our analysis also revealed the presence of distinct geographic clusters where dengue properties tend to be spatially correlated. Forecasting models aimed at predicting the dynamics of dengue activity need to identify the most salient variables capable of contributing to accurate predictions. Our findings show that successful models may need to leverage distinct variables in different locations and be catered to a specific task, such as predicting outbreak magnitude or timing characteristics, to be useful. This advocates in favor of "adaptive models" rather than "one-size-fits-all" models. The results of this study can be applied to improving spatial hierarchical or target-focused forecasting models of dengue activity across Brazil.
| S-EPMC8174735 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Mosquito-borne virus infections, such as dengue and chikungunya, are continuously expanding their geographical range. The dengue virus, which is known to be a common cause of febrile illness in tropical areas of the Old World, is now widespread in the Americas. In most affected areas, all the four dengue virus serotypes have circulated. Recently, small clusters of dengue have been identified also in Southern Europe during the hot season. The chikungunya virus, initially restricted to Central Africa, where is a common cause of sporadic cases or small outbreaks, and Asia, where it is used to cause large epidemics, has recently invaded new territories. After ravaging Indian Ocean Islands and the Indian subcontinent, CHIKV caused an outbreak in north-eastern Italy. Recently, chikungunya has reached the Caribbean, causing for the first time a large epidemic on the American continent. Although Aedes aegypti is the main vector of both viruses, Aedes albopictus, the Asian 'Tiger' mosquito, is now playing an increasingly important role, contributing to their spread in temperate climate areas. Hereby, we focus the attention on outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya occurring in previously disease-free areas and discuss factors associated with the long-distance spread of the vector-borne infections, such as mutations increasing viral fitness, climate change, urbanization, and globalization of humans and vectors.
| S-EPMC4394667 | biostudies-other
Project description:Background Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses (ZIKV, CHIKV and DENV) are temporally associated with neurological diseases, such as Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). Because these three arboviruses coexist in Mexico, the frequency and severity of GBS could theoretically increase. This study aims to determine the association between these arboviruses and GBS in a Mexican population and to establish the clinical characteristics of the patients, including the severity of the infection. A case-control study was conducted (2016/07/01-2018/06/30) in Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (Mexican Social Security Institute) hospitals, using serum and urine samples that were collected to determine exposure to ZIKV, DENV, CHIKV by RT-qPCR and serology (IgM). For the categorical variables analysis, Pearson's χ2 or Fisher exact tests were used, and the Mann-Whitney U test for continuous variables. To determine the association of GBS and viral infection diagnosis through laboratory and symptomatology before admission, we calculated the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) using a 2x2 contingency table. A p-value ≤ 0.05 was considered as significant. Ninety-seven GBS cases and 184 controls were included. The association of GBS with ZIKV acute infection (OR, 8.04; 95% CI, 0.89-73.01, p = 0.047), as well as laboratory evidence of ZIKV infection (OR, 16.45; 95% CI, 2.03-133.56; p = 0.001) or Flavivirus (ZIKV and DENV) infection (OR, 6.35; 95% CI, 1.99-20.28; p = 0.001) was observed. Cases of GBS associated with ZIKV demonstrated a greater impairment of functional status and a higher percentage of mechanical ventilation. According to laboratory results, an association between ZIKV or ZIKV and DENV infection in patients with GBS was found. Cases of GBS associated with ZIKV exhibited a more severe clinical picture. Cases with co-infection were not found.
| S-EPMC7775118 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeIn 2012, Cameroon experienced a large measles outbreak of over 14,000 cases. To determine the spatio-temporal dynamics of measles transmission in Cameroon, we analyzed weekly case data collected by the Ministry of Health.MethodsWe compared several multivariate time-series models of population movement to characterize the spatial spread of measles in Cameroon. Using the best model, we evaluated the contribution of population mobility to disease transmission at increasing geographic resolutions: region, department, and health district.ResultsOur spatio-temporal analysis showed that the power law model, which accounts for long-distance population movement, best represents the spatial spread of measles in Cameroon. Population movement between health districts within departments contributed to 7.6% (range: 0.4%-13.4%) of cases at the district level, whereas movement between departments within regions contributed to 16.0% (range: 1.3%-23.2%) of cases. Long-distance movement between regions contributed to 16.7% (range: 0.1%-59.0%) of cases at the region level, 20.1% (range: 7.1%-30.0%) at the department level, and 29.7% (range: 15.3%-47.6%) at the health district level.ConclusionsPopulation long-distance mobility is an important driver of measles dynamics in Cameroon. These findings demonstrate the need to improve our understanding of the roles of population mobility and local heterogeneity of vaccination coverage in the spread and control of measles in Cameroon.
| S-EPMC7056523 | biostudies-literature