Estimating the risk of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in a large European city.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Solimini AG
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6219586 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Estimating the risk of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in a large European city.
Solimini Angelo G AG Manica Mattia M Rosà Roberto R Della Torre Alessandra A Caputo Beniamino B
Scientific reports 20181106 1
Outbreaks of arbovirus infections vectored by invasive Aedes albopictus have already occurred and are predicted to become increasingly frequent in Southern Europe. We present a probabilistic model to assess risk of arbovirus outbreaks based on incident cases worldwide, on the probability of arrival of infected travelers, and on the abundance of the vector species. Our results show a significant risk of Chikungunya outbreak in Rome from mid June to October in simulations with high human biting ra ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:Response to Zika virus (ZIKV) invasion in Brazil lagged a year from its estimated February 2014 introduction, and was triggered by the occurrence of severe congenital malformations. Dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) invasions tend to show similar response lags. We analyzed geo-coded symptomatic case reports from the city of Merida, Mexico, with the goal of assessing the utility of historical DENV data to infer CHIKV and ZIKV introduction and propagation. About 42% of the 40,028 DENV cases reported during 2008-2015 clustered in 27% of the city, and these clustering areas were where the first CHIKV and ZIKV cases were reported in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Furthermore, the three viruses had significant agreement in their spatio-temporal distribution (Kendall W>0.63; p<0.01). Longitudinal DENV data generated patterns indicative of the resulting introduction and transmission patterns of CHIKV and ZIKV, leading to important insights for the surveillance and targeted control to emerging Aedes-borne viruses.
| S-EPMC5870998 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundArboviruses represent a threat to global public health. In the Americas, the dengue fever is endemic. This situation worsens with the introduction of emerging, Zika fever and chikungunya fever, causing epidemics in several countries within the last decade. Hotspot analysis contributes to understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics in the context of co-circulation of these three arboviral diseases, which have the same vector: Aedes aegypti.ObjectiveTo analyze the spatial distribution and agreement between the hotspots of the historical series of reported dengue cases from 2000 to 2014 and the Zika, chikungunya and dengue cases hotspots from 2015 to 2019 in the city of Rio de Janeiro.MethodsTo identify hotspots, Gi* statistics were calculated for the annual incidence rates of reported cases of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya by neighborhood. Kendall's W statistic was used to analyze the agreement between diseases hotspots.ResultsThere was no agreement between the hotspots of the dengue fever historical series (2000-2014) and those of the emerging Zika fever and chikungunya fever (2015-2019). However, there was agreement between hotspots of the three arboviral diseases between 2015 and 2019.ConclusionThe results of this study show the existence of persistent hotspots that need to be prioritized in public policies for the prevention and control of these diseases. The techniques used with data from epidemiological surveillance services can help in better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases wherever they circulate in the world.
| S-EPMC9447914 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Many tropical countries are currently experiencing dengue (DEN), chikungunya (CHIK) and also more recently Zika (ZIKA) epidemics (particularly in Latin America). Although the risk of transmission and spread of these infections in temperate regions remains a controversial issue, vector-borne diseases have been widely reported in the media and have been the focus of preventive strategies by national and international policy-makers and public health authorities. In this context, we wanted to determine the extent of risk perception in infectious diseases (ID) physicians of the current and future risk of arboviral disease introduction, autochthonous case development and epidemic scenarios in France, Western Europe. METHODS:To this aim, we developed an original standardized questionnaire survey which was disseminated by the French Infectious Diseases Society to ID physician members. RESULTS:We found that ID physicians perceived the risk of introduction and outbreak development of DEN, CHIK and ZIKA in France to be low to medium-low. Generalized Linear Model(s) identified medical school training, the extent of professional experience, and awareness of the French national plan regarding arboviral infections as significant predictors for lower risk perception among respondents. CONCLUSION:Despite the fact that arboviral diseases are increasingly being imported into France, sometimes resulting in sporadic autochtonous transmission, French ID physicians do not perceive the risk as high. Better communication and education targeting health professionals and citizens will be needed to enhance the effectiveness of the French national plan to prepare against arboviral diseases.
| S-EPMC6889449 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Purpose of reviewDescribe the characteristics of chikungunya, dengue, and Zika in transplant recipients and immunocompromised hosts.Recent findingsStem cell/bone marrow grafts, organs, and blood transfusions can transmit CHIKV/DENV/ZIKV infections, which are clinically similar, resembling influenza-like illness. Laboratory confirmation is necessary. In the acute phase, RT-PCR is preferred. DENV and ZIKV serology may cross-react. Delayed engraftment and extended viruria is observed in ZIKV+/HSCT recipients, while longer viremia is observed in DENV+/HSCT patients. Arbovirus persistence in organ tissues is generally unknown. Vaccine development is in early stages for CHIKV/ZIKV. No data is available to recommend the licensed DENV vaccine in transplant recipients. In endemic areas, the assessment of epidemiological risk is mandatory. Donor deferral for 120 days in suspected or confirmed ZIKV+ has been recommended, while CHIKV+ donors should wait 30 days. No deferral is recommended for DENV+ donors. CHIKV/DENV/ZIKV tests should be included in the differential of febrile neutropenia and other transplant syndromes. Reassessment of DENV serology is urgently needed. Prospective studies are necessary to determine the impact of CHIKV/DENV/ZIKV in this special population.
| S-EPMC5857271 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Mosquito-borne virus infections, such as dengue and chikungunya, are continuously expanding their geographical range. The dengue virus, which is known to be a common cause of febrile illness in tropical areas of the Old World, is now widespread in the Americas. In most affected areas, all the four dengue virus serotypes have circulated. Recently, small clusters of dengue have been identified also in Southern Europe during the hot season. The chikungunya virus, initially restricted to Central Africa, where is a common cause of sporadic cases or small outbreaks, and Asia, where it is used to cause large epidemics, has recently invaded new territories. After ravaging Indian Ocean Islands and the Indian subcontinent, CHIKV caused an outbreak in north-eastern Italy. Recently, chikungunya has reached the Caribbean, causing for the first time a large epidemic on the American continent. Although Aedes aegypti is the main vector of both viruses, Aedes albopictus, the Asian 'Tiger' mosquito, is now playing an increasingly important role, contributing to their spread in temperate climate areas. Hereby, we focus the attention on outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya occurring in previously disease-free areas and discuss factors associated with the long-distance spread of the vector-borne infections, such as mutations increasing viral fitness, climate change, urbanization, and globalization of humans and vectors.
| S-EPMC4394667 | biostudies-other
Project description:Dengue, an arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, has been endemic in Brazil for decades. However, vector-control strategies have not led to a significant reduction in the disease burden and have not been sufficient to prevent chikungunya and Zika entry and establishment in the country. In Rio de Janeiro city, the first Zika and chikungunya epidemics were detected between 2015 and 2016, coinciding with a dengue epidemic. Understanding the behaviour of these diseases in a triple epidemic scenario is a necessary step for devising better interventions for prevention and outbreak response. We applied scan statistics analysis to detect spatio-temporal clustering for each disease separately and for all three simultaneously. In general, clusters were not detected in the same locations and time periods, possibly owing to competition between viruses for host resources, depletion of susceptible population, different introduction times and change in behaviour of the human population (e.g. intensified vector-control activities in response to increasing cases of a particular arbovirus). Simultaneous clusters of the three diseases usually included neighbourhoods with high population density and low socioeconomic status, particularly in the North region of the city. The use of space-time cluster detection can guide intensive interventions to high-risk locations in a timely manner, to improve clinical diagnosis and management, and pinpoint vector-control measures.
| S-EPMC6790786 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEarly warning systems (EWSs) are of increasing importance in the context of outbreak-prone diseases such as chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika. A scoping review has been undertaken for all 5 diseases to summarize existing evidence of EWS tools in terms of their structural and statistical designs, feasibility of integration and implementation into national surveillance programs, and the users' perspective of their applications.MethodsData were extracted from Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Google Scholar, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), PubMed, Web of Science, and WHO Library Database (WHOLIS) databases until August 2019. Included were studies reporting on (a) experiences with existing EWS, including implemented tools; and (b) the development or implementation of EWS in a particular setting. No restrictions were applied regarding year of publication, language or geographical area.FindingsThrough the first screening, 11,710 documents for dengue, 2,757 for Zika, 2,706 for chikungunya, 24,611 for malaria, and 4,963 for yellow fever were identified. After applying the selection criteria, a total of 37 studies were included in this review. Key findings were the following: (1) a large number of studies showed the quality performance of their prediction models but except for dengue outbreaks, only few presented statistical prediction validity of EWS; (2) while entomological, epidemiological, and social media alarm indicators are potentially useful for outbreak warning, almost all studies focus primarily or exclusively on meteorological indicators, which tends to limit the prediction capacity; (3) no assessment of the integration of the EWS into a routine surveillance system could be found, and only few studies addressed the users' perspective of the tool; (4) almost all EWS tools require highly skilled users with advanced statistics; and (5) spatial prediction remains a limitation with no tool currently able to map high transmission areas at small spatial level.ConclusionsIn view of the escalating infectious diseases as global threats, gaps and challenges are significantly present within the EWS applications. While some advanced EWS showed high prediction abilities, the scarcity of tool assessments in terms of integration into existing national surveillance systems as well as of the feasibility of transforming model outputs into local vector control or action plans tends to limit in most cases the support of countries in controlling disease outbreaks.
| S-EPMC8445439 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In 2015-2016, simultaneous circulation of dengue, Zika and chikungunya in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) was reported. We conducted an ecological study to analyse the spatial distribution of dengue, Zika and chikungunya cases and to investigate socioeconomic factors associated with individual and combined disease incidence in 2015-2016. We then constructed thematic maps and analysed the bivariate global Moran indices. Classical and spatial models were used. A distinct spatial distribution pattern for dengue, Zika and chikungunya was identified in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. The bivariate global Moran indices (P < 0.05) revealed negative spatial correlations between rates of dengue, Zika, chikungunya and combined arboviruses incidence and social development index and mean income. The regression models (P < 0.05) identified a negative relationship between mean income and each of these rates and between sewage and Zika incidence rates, as well as a positive relationship between urban areas and chikungunya incidence rates. In our study, spatial analysis techniques helped to identify high-risk and social determinants at the local level for the three arboviruses. Our findings may aid in backing effective interventions for the prevention and control of epidemics of these diseases.
| S-EPMC8365848 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Dengue viruses are the most important arboviral pathogens in the world, which have adapted to human transmission and replication over several hundred years and were initially recognized to cause outbreaks of clinical disease in tropical and subtropical countries by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Subsequent global expansion of dengue infection outbreaks has occurred, with millions of cases yearly, probably from a combination of factors including proliferation of international travel and trade, possibly global climate changes, adaptation of the vectors to new environment, and emergence of a new mosquito vector, Aedes albopictus. Chikungunya virus, also transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, causes a very similar clinical disease but with more prominent arthralgia or arthritis and was originally described in Africa in the 1960s. After a quiescent period of several decades, it reemerged in Africa in 2004 and rapidly spread across the Indian Ocean to involve Asian countries and parts of Europe. However, the past 2 years have seen the emergence of chikungunya virus in the western hemisphere with major outbreaks in the Caribbean and the Americas. Similar to dengue virus, chikungunya virus has adapted to Ae. albopictus mosquitoes which can transmit the disease. Although dengue infection is a more deadly disease especially in young children, chikungunya infection can cause prolonged severe disability and occasionally rare fatalities from encephalitis. No specific treatment is available for either diseases, but development of an effective vaccine for dengue infection is in progress. Until 2007, Zika virus [also transmitted by Aedes species] was associated with only sporadic mild infections in Africa and Asia. In 2007, Zika virus for the first time caused an outbreak beyond Africa and Asia to the Yap Island in the Federated States of Micronesia. Since then Zika virus has spread to French Polynesia, New Caledonia, Cook Islands, and Easter Island in the southeastern Pacific Ocean [Chile] in 2014 and by 2015 to Brazil. By January 2016, it became evident that Zika virus had caused an explosive outbreak in the Americas and the Caribbean with over 30 countries affected. On February 1, 2016, the World Health Organization declared Zika outbreak a global public health emergency. Zika virus infection is most commonly asymptomatic, and 20% of patients may develop a mild viral disease, but of major concern is the reported association of microcephaly in infected pregnant women in Brazil. This chapter explores the history, epidemiology, pathogenesis, clinical features, treatment, and prevention of these rapidly emerging zoonoses.
| S-EPMC7121267 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The global burden of arboviral diseases and the limited success in controlling them calls for innovative methods to understand arbovirus infections. Metabolomics has been applied to detect alterations in host physiology during infection. This approach relies on mass spectrometry or nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy to evaluate how perturbations in biological systems alter metabolic pathways, allowing for differentiation of closely related conditions. Because viruses heavily depend on host resources and pathways, they present unique challenges for characterizing metabolic changes. Here, we review the literature on metabolomics of arboviruses and focus on the interpretation of identified molecular features. Metabolomics has revealed biomarkers that differentiate disease states and outcomes, and has shown similarities in metabolic alterations caused by different viruses (e.g., lipid metabolism). Researchers investigating such metabolomic alterations aim to better understand host?virus dynamics, identify diagnostically useful molecular features, discern perturbed pathways for therapeutics, and guide further biochemical research. This review focuses on lessons derived from metabolomics studies on samples from arbovirus-infected humans.
| S-EPMC6466193 | biostudies-literature