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Benefit Versus Risk Assessment of Rotavirus Vaccination in France: A Simulation and Modeling Analysis.

ABSTRACT: Two vaccines against rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) in young children, Rotarix and RotaTeq, have been available in Europe since 2006. Vaccination against rotaviruses significantly reduces the burden of RVGE, but it is also associated with a very small increased risk of intussusception. In a benefit-risk analysis, the prevented RVGE burden is weighed against the possible excess of intussusception.The aim was to compare the estimated benefits and risks of Rotarix vaccination in France.We estimated the benefits (vaccine-preventable RVGE hospitalizations and deaths) and risks (vaccine-caused intussusception hospitalizations and deaths) following two doses of Rotarix in a birth cohort of 791,183 followed for 3-5 years in France. We used data from peer-reviewed clinical and epidemiological studies or publications, and government statistics.Within the total number of French children below 5 years of age, we estimate vaccination could prevent a median 11,132 [95% credible interval (CI) 7842-14,408] RVGE hospitalizations and 7.43 (95% CI 3.27-14.68) RVGE deaths. At the same time, vaccination could cause an average of 6.86 (95% CI 2.25-38.37) intussusception hospitalizations and 0.0099 (95% CI 0.0024-0.060) intussusception deaths in the entire French birth cohort of infants below 1 year of age. Therefore, for every intussusception hospitalization and every intussusception death caused by vaccination, 1624 (95% CI 240-5243) RVGE hospitalizations and 743 (95% CI 93-3723) RVGE deaths are prevented, respectively, by vaccination.The vaccine-prevented RVGE hospitalizations and deaths (benefit) greatly outweigh the excess potentially vaccination-related cases of intussusception (risk), indicating a favorable benefit-risk balance for Rotarix in France.

SUBMITTER: Ledent E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5878204 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Benefit Versus Risk Assessment of Rotavirus Vaccination in France: A Simulation and Modeling Analysis.

Ledent Edouard E Arlegui Hugo H Buyse Hubert H Basile Peter P Karkada Naveen N Praet Nicolas N Nachbaur Gaëlle G

BioDrugs : clinical immunotherapeutics, biopharmaceuticals and gene therapy 20180401 2

<h4>Introduction</h4>Two vaccines against rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) in young children, Rotarix and RotaTeq, have been available in Europe since 2006. Vaccination against rotaviruses significantly reduces the burden of RVGE, but it is also associated with a very small increased risk of intussusception. In a benefit-risk analysis, the prevented RVGE burden is weighed against the possible excess of intussusception.<h4>Purpose</h4>The aim was to compare the estimated benefits and risks of Rot ...[more]

PMID: 29589230

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Project description:BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE:Since 2013, a biennial rotavirus pattern has emerged in the Netherlands with alternating high and low endemic years and a nearly 50% reduction in rotavirus hospitalization rates overall, while infant rotavirus vaccination has remained below 1% throughout. As the rotavirus vaccination cost-effectiveness and risk-benefit ratio in high-income settings is highly influenced by the total rotavirus disease burden, we re-evaluated two infant vaccination strategies, taking into account this recent change in rotavirus epidemiology. METHODS:We used updated rotavirus disease burden estimates derived from (active) surveillance to evaluate (1) a targeted strategy with selective vaccination of infants with medical risk conditions (prematurity, low birth weight, or congenital conditions) and (2) universal vaccination including all infants. In addition, we added herd protection as well as vaccine-induced intussusception risk to our previous cost-effectiveness model. An age- and risk-group structured, discrete-time event, stochastic multi-cohort model of the Dutch pediatric population was used to estimate the costs and effects of each vaccination strategy. RESULTS:The targeted vaccination was cost-saving under all scenarios tested from both the healthcare payer and societal perspective at rotavirus vaccine market prices (€135/child). The cost-effectiveness ratio for universal vaccination was €51,277 at the assumed vaccine price of €75/child, using a societal perspective and 3% discount rates. Universal vaccination became cost-neutral at €32/child. At an assumed vaccine-induced intussusception rate of 1/50,000, an estimated 1707 hospitalizations and 21 fatal rotavirus cases were averted by targeted vaccination per vaccine-induced intussusception case. Applying universal vaccination, an additional 571 hospitalizations and?<? 1 additional rotavirus death were averted in healthy children per vaccine-induced intussusception case. CONCLUSION:While universal infant rotavirus vaccination results in the highest reductions in the population burden of rotavirus, targeted vaccination should be considered as a cost-saving alternative with a favorable risk-benefit ratio for high-income settings where universal implementation is unfeasible because of budget restrictions, low rotavirus endemicity, and/or public acceptance.

Project description:IntroductionRotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) remains a leading cause of hospitalization and death in children under five years of age in the Philippines. Rotavirus (RV) vaccination was introduced into the national immunization program (NIP) in 2012 but has since been limited to one region due to cost considerations and conflicting local cost-effectiveness estimates. Updated estimates of the cost-effectiveness of RV vaccination are required to inform prioritization of national immunization activities.MethodsWe calculated the potential costs and benefits of rotavirus vaccination over a 10-year-period (2021-2031) from a government and societal perspective, comparing four alternative rotavirus vaccines: Rotavac, Rotasiil, Rotarix and Rotateq. For each vaccine, a proportionate outcomes model was used to calculate the expected number of disease events, DALYs, vaccination program costs, and healthcare costs, with and without vaccination. The primary outcome measure was the cost per DALY averted. Assuming each product would generate similar benefits, the dominant (lowest cost) product was identified. We then calculated the cost-effectiveness (US$ per Disability Adjusted Life Year [DALY] averted) of the least costly product and compared it to willingness-to-pay thresholds of 0.5 and 1 times the national GDP per capita ($3,485), and ran deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.ResultsIntroducing any of the four rotavirus vaccines would avert around 40% of RVGE visits, hospitalizations, and deaths over the period 2021-2031. Over the same ten-year period, the incremental cost of vaccination from a government perspective was estimated to be around $104, $105, $220, and $277 million for Rotavac, Rotasiil, Rotarix and Rotateq, respectively. The equivalent cost from a societal perspective was $58, $60, $178 and $231 million. The cost-effectiveness of the least costly product (Rotavac) was $1,148 ($830-$1682) from a government perspective and $646 ($233-1277) from a societal perspective. All other products offered similar benefits but at a higher cost. There is a >99% probability that Rotavac would be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold set at 0.5 times the national GDP per capita.ConclusionBoth Rotavac and Rotasiil are likely to be cost-effective options in the Philippines, but it is not possible to say definitively which product should be preferred. Rotarix and Rotateq are expected to offer similar benefits at more cost, so would need to be priced far more competitively to be considered for introduction.

Project description:BackgroundRotavirus incidence remains relatively high in low-income countries (LICs) compared to high-income countries (HICs) after vaccine introduction. Ghana introduced monovalent rotavirus vaccine in April 2012 and despite the high coverage, vaccine performance has been modest compared to developed countries. The predictors of low vaccine effectiveness in LICs are poorly understood, and the drivers of subnational heterogeneity in rotavirus vaccine impact are unknown.MethodsWe used mathematical models to investigate variations in rotavirus incidence in children <5 years old in Ghana. We fit models to surveillance and case-control data from three different hospitals: Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital in Accra, Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital in Kumasi, and War Memorial Hospital in Navrongo. The models were fitted to both pre- and post-vaccine data to estimate parameters describing the transmission rate, waning of maternal immunity, and vaccine response rate.ResultsThe seasonal pattern and age distribution of rotavirus cases varied among the three study sites in Ghana. Our model was able to capture the spatio-temporal variations in rotavirus incidence across the three sites and showed good agreement with the age distribution of observed cases. The rotavirus transmission rate was highest in Accra and lowest in Navrongo, while the estimated duration of maternal immunity was longer (~5 months) in Accra and Kumasi and shorter (~3 months) in Navrongo. The proportion of infants who responded to the vaccine was estimated to be high in Accra and Kumasi and low in Navrongo.ConclusionsRotavirus vaccine impact varies within Ghana. A low vaccine response rate was estimated for Navrongo, where rotavirus is highly seasonal and incidence limited to a few months of the year. Our findings highlight the need to further explore the relationship between rotavirus seasonality, maternal immunity, and vaccine response rate to determine how they influence vaccine effectiveness and to develop strategies to improve vaccine impact.

Project description:BackgroundTriazolam is a typical drug commonly used in the elderly; however, there have been concerns about its adverse events resulting from age-related changes in physiological function and drug interactions with concomitant drugs. Thus, updated information contributing to the appropriate use based on the latest pharmacokinetic and post-marketing surveillance methods is needed. In this study, we evaluated the appropriate use of triazolam in the elderly by integrating real-world data with a modeling and simulation approach.MethodsThe occurrence risk of adverse events in the elderly was evaluated using the spontaneous adverse event reporting regulatory databases from Japan and the United States. Information on drug concentrations and reactions was extracted from previous publications to estimate the threshold for plasma triazolam concentrations that cause adverse events. The pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model was then constructed, and the dose and administration were evaluated in various situations anticipated in medical practice.ResultsAmong all prescriptions, 25.4% were prescribed to individuals aged 80 years or above, and 51.8% were for those aged 70 years or above. A majority of cases involved CYP3A-metabolized drug combinations, accounting for 85.6%. Elderly individuals were at a higher risk of developing delirium and fall-fracture. Based on the constructed PK/PD model, the risk of adverse events increased when the plasma concentration of triazolam exceeded the calculated threshold of 0.44 ng/mL at approximately 6 h after administration. Administering 0.125 mg of triazolam, is half the approved dose for the elderly in Japan was deemed appropriate. Moreover, there was a substantial risk of adverse events even at a dosage of 0.0625 mg in combination with a moderate or strong inhibitor of cytochrome P450 3 A.ConclusionAnalyzing large-scale databases and existing research publications on PK/PD can practically contribute to optimizing triazolam drug therapy for the elderly in the daily clinical setting.

Dataset Information

Benefit Versus Risk Assessment of Rotavirus Vaccination in France: A Simulation and Modeling Analysis.

Publications

Benefit Versus Risk Assessment of Rotavirus Vaccination in France: A Simulation and Modeling Analysis.

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