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Trends and Predictors of Syphilis Prevalence in the General Population: Global Pooled Analyses of 1103 Prevalence Measures Including 136 Million Syphilis Tests.

ABSTRACT: Background:This study assessed levels, trends, and associations of observed syphilis prevalence in the general adult population using global pooled analyses. Methods:A standardized database of syphilis prevalence was compiled by pooling systematically gathered data. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted using data from the period 1990-2016 to estimate pooled measures and assess predictors and trends. Countries were classified by World Health Organization region. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results:The database included 1103 prevalence measures from 136 million syphilis tests across 154 countries (85% from women in antenatal care). Global pooled mean prevalence (weighted by region population size) was 1.11% (95% confidence interval [CI], .99-1.22). Prevalence predictors were region, diagnostic assay, sample size, and calendar year interacting with region. Compared to the African Region, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) was 0.42 (95% CI, .33-.54) for the Region of the Americas, 0.13 (95% CI, .09-.19) for the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 0.05 (95% CI, .03-.07) for the European Region, 0.21 (95% CI, .16-.28) for the South-East Asia Region, and 0.41 (95% CI, .32-.53) for the Western Pacific Region. Treponema pallidum hemagglutination assay (TPHA) only or rapid plasma reagin (RPR) only, compared with dual RPR/TPHA diagnosis, produced higher prevalence (AOR >1.26), as did smaller sample-size studies (<500 persons) (AOR >2.16). Prevalence declined in all regions; the annual AORs ranged from 0.84 (95% CI, .79-.90) in the Eastern Mediterranean to 0.97 (95% CI, .97-1.01) in the Western Pacific. The pooled mean male-to-female prevalence ratio was 1.00 (95% CI, .89-1.13). Sensitivity analyses confirmed robustness of results. Conclusions:Syphilis prevalence has declined globally over the past 3 decades. Large differences in prevalence persist among regions, with the African Region consistently the most affected.

SUBMITTER: Smolak A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5888928 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Esophageal cancer (EC) is a leading cause of cancer-related death in the west 1 . Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is the most common type of EC worldwide. However, in Western countries, including the United States, esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is the most common 2 . EAC is most common in the lower esophagus whereas SCC is most common in the middle and upper esophagus 3 . The incidence of EAC has increased dramatically in western countries over the past few decades. 2 3 The exact reason for this rise in EAC has not been clearly understood. However, an increase in the prevalence of EAC risk factors is postulated as a potential explanation 4 . Although there are many identifiable EAC risk factors, including gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), obesity, male sex, White race, and smoking 5 6 7 , Barrett's esophagus (BE) remains the major precursor lesion of esophageal adenocarcinoma. BE develops when there is a change in the normal squamous lining of the esophageal mucosa into intestinal metaplasia 8 9 . The incidence has also increased in the population over the past few decades 10 11 . There is a well-described progression within BE from non-dysplastic BE (NDBE), low-grade dysplasia (LGD), high-grade dysplasia (HGD), intramucosal carcinoma (IMC), to invasive EAC 12 13 . Recent data suggest that the increased incidence of EAC may have plateaued 1 . However, we questioned whether the prevalence of EAC is still increasing, especially at younger ages in lieu of recent trends showing an increase in the prevalence of colorectal cancer in younger patients. These findings resulted in a lowering of the colorectal cancer screening age cutoff to 45 years from 50 years 14 15 16 . Therefore, we aimed to assess the time trends in the prevalence and incidence of EAC and some of its risk factors in a large population of patients in Florida and to assess these trends based on age categories. We hypothesized that the prevalence of EAC and BE has increased over time at younger age groups.

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Trends and Predictors of Syphilis Prevalence in the General Population: Global Pooled Analyses of 1103 Prevalence Measures Including 136 Million Syphilis Tests.

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