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Development of prediction models for upper and lower respiratory and gastrointestinal tract infections using social network parameters in middle-aged and older persons -The Maastricht Study.

ABSTRACT: The ability to predict upper respiratory infections (URI), lower respiratory infections (LRI), and gastrointestinal tract infections (GI) in independently living older persons would greatly benefit population and individual health. Social network parameters have so far not been included in prediction models. Data were obtained from The Maastricht Study, a population-based cohort study (N = 3074, mean age (±s.d.) 59.8 ± 8.3, 48.8% women). We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to develop prediction models for self-reported symptomatic URI, LRI, and GI (past 2 months). We determined performance of the models by quantifying measures of discriminative ability and calibration. Overall, 953 individuals (31.0%) reported URI, 349 (11.4%) LRI, and 380 (12.4%) GI. The area under the curve was 64.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 62.6-66.8%) for URI, 71.1% (95% CI 68.4-73.8) for LRI, and 64.2% (95% CI 61.3-67.1%) for GI. All models had good calibration (based on visual inspection of calibration plot, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test). Social network parameters were strong predictors for URI, LRI, and GI. Using social network parameters in prediction models for URI, LRI, and GI seems highly promising. Such parameters may be used as potential determinants that can be addressed in a practical intervention in older persons, or in a predictive tool to compute an individual's probability of infections.

SUBMITTER: Brinkhues S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5892426 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development of prediction models for upper and lower respiratory and gastrointestinal tract infections using social network parameters in middle-aged and older persons -The Maastricht Study.

Brinkhues S S van Kuijk S M J SMJ Hoebe C J P A CJPA Savelkoul P H M PHM Kretzschmar M E E MEE Jansen M W J MWJ de Vries N N Sep S J S SJS Dagnelie P C PC Schaper N C NC Verhey F R J FRJ Bosma H H Maes J J Schram M T MT Dukers-Muijrers N H T M NHTM

Epidemiology and infection 20170926 5

The ability to predict upper respiratory infections (URI), lower respiratory infections (LRI), and gastrointestinal tract infections (GI) in independently living older persons would greatly benefit population and individual health. Social network parameters have so far not been included in prediction models. Data were obtained from The Maastricht Study, a population-based cohort study (N = 3074, mean age (±s.d.) 59.8 ± 8.3, 48.8% women). We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to deve ...[more]

PMID: 28946936

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Project description:BackgroundSeveral studies have reported that birth by caesarean section is associated with increased risk of lower respiratory tract infections in the child, but it is unclear whether this applies to any caesarean section or specifically to planned caesareans. Furthermore, although infections of the upper respiratory tract are very common during childhood, there is a scarcity of studies examining whether caesarean is also a risk factor for this site of infection.MethodsWe obtained data from two UK cohorts: the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) and linked administrative datasets of the population of Wales through the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank. The study focused on term-born singleton infants and included 15,580 infants born 2000-2002 (MCS) and 392,145 infants born 2002-2016 (SAIL). We used information about mode of birth (vaginal delivery, assisted vaginal delivery, planned caesarean and emergency caesarean) from maternal report in the MCS and from hospital birth records in SAIL. Unplanned hospital admission for lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) was ascertained from maternal report in the MCS and from hospital record ICD codes in SAIL. Information about admissions for upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) was available from SAIL only. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios for each outcome and cohort separately while accounting for a wide range of confounders. Gestational age at birth was further examined as a potential added, indirect risk of planned caesarean birth due to the early delivery.FindingsThe rate of hospital admission for LRTI was 4.6 per 100 child years in the MCS and 5.9 per 100 child years in SAIL. Emergency caesarean was not associated with LRTI admission during infancy in either cohort. In the MCS, planned caesarean was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.39 (95% CI 1.03, 1.87) which further increased to 1.65 (95% CI 1.24, 2.19) when gestational age was not adjusted for. In SAIL, the adjusted hazard ratio was 1.10 (95% CI 1.05, 1.15), which increased to 1.17 (95% CI 1.12, 1.22) when gestational age was not adjusted for. The rate of hospital admission for URTI was 5.9 per 100 child years in SAIL. Following adjustments, emergency caesarean was found to have a hazard ratio of 1.09 (95% CI 1.05, 1.14) for hospital admission for URTI. Planned caesarean was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.11 (95% CI 1.06, 1.16) which increased to 1.17 (95% CI 1.12, 1.22) when gestational age was not adjusted for.ConclusionsThe risk of severe LRTIs during infancy is moderately elevated in infants born by planned caesarean compared to those born vaginally. Infants born by any type of caesarean may also be at a small increased risk of severe URTIs. The estimated effect sizes are stronger if including the indirect effect arising from planning the caesarean birth for an earlier gestation than would have occurred spontaneously. Further studies are needed to confirm these results.

Project description:Objective: To examine the prospective association between constipation and risk of developing lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) in parous middle-aged women. Materials and Methods: The study uses data from 3,729 women from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children who provided self-reports of medication intake for constipation at two time points (Baseline): 2001-2003 and 2003-2005. Women with LUTS at baseline were excluded. After 10 years of follow-up, women provided self-reports of LUTS using an adapted version of the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire on Female LUTS. LUTS were categorized according to International Continence Society definitions as stress urinary incontinence (UI), urgency UI, mixed UI, nocturia, increased daytime frequency, urgency, hesitancy, and intermittency. LUTS were considered present if symptoms were reported to occur at least "sometimes" for all subtypes, except for increased daytime frequency (≥9 times) and nocturia (≥2 times nightly). Results: At follow-up, the prevalence of any LUTS was 40%. Women (mean age 43.3 years, standard deviation 0.5), who took medication for constipation at either time point had increased risks of urgency (adjusted relative risks [RRs] = 1.35; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.95) and hesitancy (adjusted RR = 1.72; 95% CI 1.04-3.01) compared with women who reported not using medication for constipation at either time point. The risk of urgency (adjusted RR = 1.94; 95% CI 1.15-3.29) and hesitancy (adjusted RR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.03-4.19) was greater for women who reported taking medication for constipation at both time points. There was no evidence that constipation was associated with stress UI, urgency UI, mixed UI, nocturia, increased daytime frequency, and intermittency. Conclusion: Constipation is prospectively associated with an increased risk of urgency and hesitancy among parous middle-aged women. If further research finds evidence that this association is causal, this implies that women should seek treatment to alleviate constipation to reduce their consequent risk of developing these LUTS.

Dataset Information

Development of prediction models for upper and lower respiratory and gastrointestinal tract infections using social network parameters in middle-aged and older persons -The Maastricht Study.

Publications

Development of prediction models for upper and lower respiratory and gastrointestinal tract infections using social network parameters in middle-aged and older persons -The Maastricht Study.

Similar Datasets

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