Dataset Information

Low- and High-Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 and H7 Spread Risk Assessment Within and Between Australian Commercial Chicken Farms.

ABSTRACT: This study quantified and compared the probability of avian influenza (AI) spread within and between Australian commercial chicken farms via specified spread pathways using scenario tree mathematical modeling. Input values for the models were sourced from scientific literature, expert opinion, and a farm survey conducted during 2015 and 2016 on Australian commercial chicken farms located in New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland. Outputs from the models indicate that the probability of no establishment of infection in a shed is the most likely end-point after exposure and infection of low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) in one chicken for all farm types (non-free range meat chicken, free range meat chicken, cage layer, barn layer, and free range layer farms). If LPAI infection is established in a shed, LPAI is more likely to spread to other sheds and beyond the index farm due to a relatively low probability of detection and reporting during LPAI infection compared to high-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) infection. Among farm types, the median probability for HPAI spread between sheds and between farms is higher for layer farms (0.0019, 0.0016, and 0.0031 for cage, barn, and free range layer, respectively) than meat chicken farms (0.00025 and 0.00043 for barn and free range meat chicken, respectively) due to a higher probability of mutation in layer birds, which relates to their longer production cycle. The pathway of LPAI spread between sheds with the highest average median probability was spread via equipment (0.015; 5-95%, 0.0058-0.036) and for HPAI spread between farms, the pathway with the highest average median probability was spread via egg trays (3.70?×?10-5; 5-95%, 1.47?×?10-6-0.00034). As the spread model did not explicitly consider volume and frequency of the spread pathways, these results provide a comparison of spread probabilities per pathway. These findings highlight the importance of performing biosecurity practices to limit spread of the AI virus. The models can be updated as new information on the mechanisms of the AI virus and on the volume and frequency of movements shed-to-shed and of movements between commercial chicken farms becomes available.

SUBMITTER: Scott AB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5900437 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Low- and High-Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 and H7 Spread Risk Assessment Within and Between Australian Commercial Chicken Farms.

Scott Angela Bullanday AB Toribio Jenny-Ann L M L JLML Singh Mini M Groves Peter P Barnes Belinda B Glass Kathryn K Moloney Barbara B Black Amanda A Hernandez-Jover Marta M

Frontiers in veterinary science 20180409

This study quantified and compared the probability of avian influenza (AI) spread within and between Australian commercial chicken farms via specified spread pathways using scenario tree mathematical modeling. Input values for the models were sourced from scientific literature, expert opinion, and a farm survey conducted during 2015 and 2016 on Australian commercial chicken farms located in New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland. Outputs from the models indicate that the probability of no establis ...[more]

PMID: 29686993

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Project description:This study investigated the pathways of exposure to low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus among Australian commercial chicken farms and estimated the likelihood of this exposure occurring using scenario trees and a stochastic modeling approach following the World Organization for Animal Health methodology for risk assessment. Input values for the models were sourced from scientific literature and an on-farm survey conducted during 2015 and 2016 among Australian commercial chicken farms located in New South Wales and Queensland. Outputs from the models revealed that the probability of a first LPAI virus exposure to a chicken in an Australian commercial chicken farms from one wild bird at any point in time is extremely low. A comparative assessment revealed that across the five farm types (non-free-range meat chicken, free-range meat chicken, cage layer, barn layer, and free range layer farms), free-range layer farms had the highest probability of exposure (7.5?×?10-4; 5% and 95%, 5.7?×?10-4-0.001). The results indicate that the presence of a large number of wild birds on farm is required for exposure to occur across all farm types. The median probability of direct exposure was highest in free-range farm types (5.6?×?10-4 and 1.6?×?10-4 for free-range layer and free-range meat chicken farms, respectively) and indirect exposure was highest in non-free-range farm types (2.7?×?10-4, 2.0?×?10-4, and 1.9?×?10-4 for non-free-range meat chicken, cage layer, and barn layer farms, respectively). The probability of exposure was found to be lowest in summer for all farm types. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the proportion of waterfowl among wild birds on the farm, the presence of waterfowl in the range and feed storage areas, and the prevalence of LPAI in wild birds are the most influential parameters for the probability of Australian commercial chicken farms being exposed to avian influenza (AI) virus. These results highlight the importance of ensuring good biosecurity on farms to minimize the risk of exposure to AI virus and the importance of continuous surveillance of LPAI prevalence including subtypes in wild bird populations.

Project description:Wild aquatic birds have been associated with the intercontinental spread of H5 subtype highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of the A/goose/Guangdong/1/96 (Gs/GD) lineage during 2005, 2010, and 2014, but dispersion by wild waterfowl has not been implicated with spread of other HPAI viruses. To better understand why Gs/GD H5 HPAI viruses infect and transmit more efficiently in waterfowl than other HPAI viruses, groups of mallard ducks were challenged with one of 14 different H5 and H7 HPAI viruses, including a Gs/GD lineage H5N1 (clade 2.2) virus from Mongolia, part of the 2005 dispersion, and the H5N8 and H5N2 index HPAI viruses (clade 2.3.4.4) from the United States, part of the 2014 dispersion. All virus-inoculated ducks and contact exposed ducks became infected and shed moderate to high titers of the viruses, with the exception that mallards were resistant to Ck/Pennsylvania/83 and Ck/Queretaro/95 H5N2 HPAI virus infection. Clinical signs were only observed in ducks challenged with the H5N1 2005 virus, which all died, and with the H5N8 and H5N2 2014 viruses, which had decreased weight gain and fever. These three viruses were also shed in higher titers by the ducks, which could facilitate virus transmission and spread. This study highlights the possible role of wild waterfowl in the spread of HPAI viruses. IMPORTANCE:The spread of H5 subtype highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of the Gs/GD lineage by migratory waterfowl is a serious concern for animal and public health. H5 and H7 HPAI viruses are considered to be adapted to gallinaceous species (chickens, turkeys, quail, etc.) and less likely to infect and transmit in wild ducks. In order to understand why this is different with certain Gs/GD lineage H5 HPAI viruses, we compared the pathogenicity and transmission of several H5 and H7 HPAI viruses from previous poultry outbreaks to Gs/GD lineage H5 viruses, including H5N1 (clade 2.2), H5N8 and H5N2 (clade 2.3.4.4) viruses, in mallards as a representative wild duck species. Surprisingly, most HPAI viruses examined in this study replicated well and transmitted among mallards; however, the three Gs/GD lineage H5 HPAI viruses replicated to higher titers, which could explain the transmission of these viruses in susceptible wild duck populations.

Dataset Information

Low- and High-Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 and H7 Spread Risk Assessment Within and Between Australian Commercial Chicken Farms.

Publications

Low- and High-Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 and H7 Spread Risk Assessment Within and Between Australian Commercial Chicken Farms.

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