Dataset Information

Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure Risk Assessment in Australian Commercial Chicken Farms.

ABSTRACT: This study investigated the pathways of exposure to low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus among Australian commercial chicken farms and estimated the likelihood of this exposure occurring using scenario trees and a stochastic modeling approach following the World Organization for Animal Health methodology for risk assessment. Input values for the models were sourced from scientific literature and an on-farm survey conducted during 2015 and 2016 among Australian commercial chicken farms located in New South Wales and Queensland. Outputs from the models revealed that the probability of a first LPAI virus exposure to a chicken in an Australian commercial chicken farms from one wild bird at any point in time is extremely low. A comparative assessment revealed that across the five farm types (non-free-range meat chicken, free-range meat chicken, cage layer, barn layer, and free range layer farms), free-range layer farms had the highest probability of exposure (7.5?×?10-4; 5% and 95%, 5.7?×?10-4-0.001). The results indicate that the presence of a large number of wild birds on farm is required for exposure to occur across all farm types. The median probability of direct exposure was highest in free-range farm types (5.6?×?10-4 and 1.6?×?10-4 for free-range layer and free-range meat chicken farms, respectively) and indirect exposure was highest in non-free-range farm types (2.7?×?10-4, 2.0?×?10-4, and 1.9?×?10-4 for non-free-range meat chicken, cage layer, and barn layer farms, respectively). The probability of exposure was found to be lowest in summer for all farm types. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the proportion of waterfowl among wild birds on the farm, the presence of waterfowl in the range and feed storage areas, and the prevalence of LPAI in wild birds are the most influential parameters for the probability of Australian commercial chicken farms being exposed to avian influenza (AI) virus. These results highlight the importance of ensuring good biosecurity on farms to minimize the risk of exposure to AI virus and the importance of continuous surveillance of LPAI prevalence including subtypes in wild bird populations.

SUBMITTER: Scott AB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5932326 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure Risk Assessment in Australian Commercial Chicken Farms.

Scott Angela Bullanday AB Toribio Jenny-Ann JA Singh Mini M Groves Peter P Barnes Belinda B Glass Kathryn K Moloney Barbara B Black Amanda A Hernandez-Jover Marta M

Frontiers in veterinary science 20180426

This study investigated the pathways of exposure to low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus among Australian commercial chicken farms and estimated the likelihood of this exposure occurring using scenario trees and a stochastic modeling approach following the World Organization for Animal Health methodology for risk assessment. Input values for the models were sourced from scientific literature and an on-farm survey conducted during 2015 and 2016 among Australian commercial chicken farms loc ...[more]

PMID: 29755987

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Project description:This study quantified and compared the probability of avian influenza (AI) spread within and between Australian commercial chicken farms via specified spread pathways using scenario tree mathematical modeling. Input values for the models were sourced from scientific literature, expert opinion, and a farm survey conducted during 2015 and 2016 on Australian commercial chicken farms located in New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland. Outputs from the models indicate that the probability of no establishment of infection in a shed is the most likely end-point after exposure and infection of low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) in one chicken for all farm types (non-free range meat chicken, free range meat chicken, cage layer, barn layer, and free range layer farms). If LPAI infection is established in a shed, LPAI is more likely to spread to other sheds and beyond the index farm due to a relatively low probability of detection and reporting during LPAI infection compared to high-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) infection. Among farm types, the median probability for HPAI spread between sheds and between farms is higher for layer farms (0.0019, 0.0016, and 0.0031 for cage, barn, and free range layer, respectively) than meat chicken farms (0.00025 and 0.00043 for barn and free range meat chicken, respectively) due to a higher probability of mutation in layer birds, which relates to their longer production cycle. The pathway of LPAI spread between sheds with the highest average median probability was spread via equipment (0.015; 5-95%, 0.0058-0.036) and for HPAI spread between farms, the pathway with the highest average median probability was spread via egg trays (3.70 × 10-5; 5-95%, 1.47 × 10-6-0.00034). As the spread model did not explicitly consider volume and frequency of the spread pathways, these results provide a comparison of spread probabilities per pathway. These findings highlight the importance of performing biosecurity practices to limit spread of the AI virus. The models can be updated as new information on the mechanisms of the AI virus and on the volume and frequency of movements shed-to-shed and of movements between commercial chicken farms becomes available.

Project description:ObjectiveEstimate the seroprevalence of influenza A virus in various commercial poultry farms and evaluate specific risk factors as well as analyze their genetic nature using molecular assays.Materials and methodsThis report summarizes the findings of a national survey realized from October 2010 to May 2011 on 800 flocks in 20 governorates. Serum samples were screened for the presence of specific influenza virus antibodies using cELISA test. Additionally, swab samples were tested by real time and conventional RT-PCR and compared with results obtained by others assays. Phylogenetic and genetic analyses of the glycoproteins were established for some strains.ResultsOut of the 800 chicken and turkey flocks tested by cELISA, 223 showed positive anti-NP antibodies (28.7%, 95% CI: 25.6-32.1). Significantly higher seroprevalence was found among the coastal areas compared to inland and during the autumn and winter. Broiler flocks showed significantly lower seroprevalence than layers and broiler breeders. The influenza virus infection prevalence increased after the laying phase among layer flocks. In addition, AIV seropositivity was significantly associated with low biosecurity measures. The Ag EIA and rRT-PCR tests revealed significantly higher numbers of AI positive samples as compared to cell cultures or egg inoculation. All new strains were subtyped as H9N2 by real time and conventional RT-PCR. Drift mutations, addition or deletion of glycosylation sites were likely to have occurred in the HA and NA glycoproteins of Tunisian strains resulting in multiple new amino acid substitutions. This fact may reflect different evolutionary pressures affecting these glycoproteins. The role of these newly detected substitutions should be tested.ConclusionOur findings highlight the potential risk of AIV to avian health. Strict enforcement of biosecurity measures and possible vaccination of all poultry flocks with continuous monitoring of poultry stations may ensure reduction of AIV prevalence and avoid emergence of more pathogenic strains.

Dataset Information

Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure Risk Assessment in Australian Commercial Chicken Farms.

Publications

Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Exposure Risk Assessment in Australian Commercial Chicken Farms.

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