Dataset Information

Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). OBJECTIVES:Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. METHODS:The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. RESULTS:The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure-response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. CONCLUSIONS:This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198.

SUBMITTER: Semenza JC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5933323 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Environmental Suitability of <i>Vibrio</i> Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System.

Semenza Jan C JC Trinanes Joaquin J Lohr Wolfgang W Sudre Bertrand B Löfdahl Margareta M Martinez-Urtaza Jaime J Nichols Gordon L GL Rocklöv Joacim J

Environmental health perspectives 20171010 10

<h4>Background</h4>Some <i>Vibrio</i> spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST).<h4>Objectives</h4>Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for <i>Vibrio</i> infections under climate change scenarios.<h4>Methods</h4>The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC <i>Vibrio</i> Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suit ...[more]

PMID: 29017986

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Abattoir data have the potential to provide information for geospatial disease surveillance applications, but the quality of the data and utility for detecting disease outbreaks is not well understood. The objectives of this study were to 1) identify non-disease factors that may bias these data for disease surveillance and 2) determine if major disease events that took place during the study period would be captured using multi-level modelling and scan statistics. We analyzed data collected at all provincially-inspected abattoirs in Ontario, Canada during 2001-2007. During these years there were outbreaks of porcine circovirus-associated disease (PCVAD), porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) and swine influenza that produced widespread disease within the province. Negative binomial models with random intercepts for abattoir, to account for repeated measurements within abattoirs, were created. The relationships between partial carcass condemnation rates for pneumonia and nephritis with year, season, agricultural region, stock price, and abattoir processing capacity were explored. The utility of the spatial scan statistic for detecting clusters of high partial carcass condemnation rates in space, time, and space-time was investigated. RESULTS: Non-disease factors that were found to be associated with lung and kidney condemnation rates included abattoir processing capacity, agricultural region and season. Yearly trends in predicted condemnation rates varied by agricultural region, and temporal patterns were different for both types of condemnations. Some clusters of high condemnation rates of kidneys with nephritis in time and space-time preceded the timeframe during which case clusters were detected using traditional laboratory data. Yearly kidney condemnation rates related to nephritis lesions in eastern Ontario were most consistent with the trends that were expected in relation to the documented disease outbreaks. Yearly lung condemnation rates did not correspond with the timeframes during which major respiratory disease outbreaks took place. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that a number of abattoir-related factors require consideration when using abattoir data for quantitative disease surveillance. Data pertaining to lungs condemned for pneumonia did not provide useful information for predicting disease events, while partial carcass condemnations of nephritis were most consistent with expected trends. Techniques that adjust for non-disease factors should be considered when applying cluster detection methods to abattoir data.

Dataset Information

Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System.

Publications

Environmental Suitability of <i>Vibrio</i> Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System.

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