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Exploring Droughts and Floods and Their Association with Cholera Outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Register-Based Ecological Study from 1990 to 2010.

ABSTRACT: Cholera outbreaks in Africa have been attributed to both droughts and floods, but whether the risk of a cholera outbreak is elevated during droughts is unknown. We estimated the risk of cholera outbreaks during droughts and floods compared with drought- and flood-free periods in 40 sub-Saharan African countries during 1990-2010 based on data from Emergency Events Database: the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance /Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters International Disaster Database (www.emdat.be). A cholera outbreak was registered in one of every three droughts and one of every 15 floods. We observed an increased incidence rate of cholera outbreaks during drought periods (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 4.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.9-7.2) and during flood periods (IRR = 144, 95% CI = 101-208) when compared with drought/flood-free periods. Floods are more strongly associated with cholera outbreaks, yet the prevalence of cholera outbreaks is higher during droughts because of droughts' long durations. The results suggest that droughts in addition to floods call for increased cholera preparedness.

SUBMITTER: Rieckmann A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5953376 | biostudies-literature | 2018 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Exploring Droughts and Floods and Their Association with Cholera Outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Register-Based Ecological Study from 1990 to 2010.

Rieckmann Andreas A Tamason Charlotte C CC Gurley Emily S ES Rod Naja Hulvej NH Jensen Peter Kjær Mackie PKM

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 20180301 5

Cholera outbreaks in Africa have been attributed to both droughts and floods, but whether the risk of a cholera outbreak is elevated during droughts is unknown. We estimated the risk of cholera outbreaks during droughts and floods compared with drought- and flood-free periods in 40 sub-Saharan African countries during 1990-2010 based on data from Emergency Events Database: the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance /Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters International Disaster Datab ...[more]

PMID: 29512484

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Project description:IntroductionCross-border cholera outbreaks are a major public health problem in Sub-Saharan Africa contributing to the high annual reported cholera cases and deaths. These outbreaks affect all categories of people and are challenging to prevent and control. This article describes lessons learnt during the cross-border cholera outbreak control in Eastern and Southern Africa sub-regions using the case of Uganda-DRC and Malawi-Mozambique borders and makes recommendations for future outbreak prevention and control.Materials and methodsWe reviewed weekly surveillance data, outbreak response reports and documented experiences on the management of the most recent cross-border cholera outbreaks in Eastern and Southern Africa sub-regions, namely in Uganda and Malawi respectively. Uganda-Democratic Republic of Congo and Malawi-Mozambique borders were selected because the countries sharing these borders reported high cholera disease burden to WHO.ResultsA total of 603 cross-border cholera cases with 5 deaths were recorded in Malawi and Uganda in 2015. Uganda recorded 118 cases with 2 deaths and CFR of 1.7%. The under-fives and school going children were the most affected age groups contributing 24.2% and 36.4% of all patients seen along Malawi-Mozambique and Uganda-DRC borders, respectively. These outbreaks lasted for over 3 months and spread to new areas leading to 60 cases with 3 deaths, CRF of 5%, and 102 cases 0 deaths in Malawi and Uganda, respectively. Factors contributing to these outbreaks were: poor sanitation and hygiene, use of contaminated water, floods and rampant cross-border movements. The outbreak control efforts mainly involved unilateral measures implemented by only one of the affected countries.ConclusionsCross-border cholera outbreaks contribute to the high annual reported cholera burden in Sub-Saharan Africa yet they remain silent, marginalized and poorly identified by cholera actors (governments and international agencies). The under-fives and the school going children were the most affected age groups. To successfully prevent and control these outbreaks, guidelines and strategies should be reviewed to assign clear roles and responsibilities to cholera actors on collaboration, prevention, detection, monitoring and control of these epidemics.

Project description:BackgroundCholera remains a major threat in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where some of the highest case-fatality rates are reported. Knowing in what months and where cholera tends to occur across the continent could aid in improving efforts to eliminate cholera as a public health concern. However, largely due to the absence of unified large-scale datasets, no continent-wide estimates exist. In this study, we aimed to estimate cholera seasonality across SSA and explore the correlation between hydroclimatic variables and cholera seasonality.MethodsUsing the global cholera database of the Global Task Force on Cholera Control, we developed statistical models to synthesise data across spatial and temporal scales to infer the seasonality of excess (defined as incidence higher than the 2010-16 mean incidence rate) suspected cholera occurrence in SSA. We developed a Bayesian statistical model to infer the monthly risk of excess cholera at the first and second administrative levels. Seasonality patterns were then grouped into spatial clusters. Finally, we studied the association between seasonality estimates and hydroclimatic variables (mean monthly fraction of area flooded, mean monthly air temperature, and cumulative monthly precipitation).Findings24 (71%) of the 34 countries studied had seasonal patterns of excess cholera risk, corresponding to approximately 86% of the SSA population. 12 (50%) of these 24 countries also had subnational differences in seasonality patterns, with strong differences in seasonality strength between regions. Seasonality patterns clustered into two macroregions (west Africa and the Sahel vs eastern and southern Africa), which were composed of subregional clusters with varying degrees of seasonality. Exploratory association analysis found most consistent and positive correlations between cholera seasonality and precipitation and, to a lesser extent, between cholera seasonality and temperature and flooding.InterpretationWidespread cholera seasonality in SSA offers opportunities for intervention planning. Further studies are needed to study the association between cholera and climate.FundingUS National Aeronautics and Space Administration Applied Sciences Program and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:Sub-Saharan Africa represents 69% of the total number of individuals living with HIV infection worldwide and 72% of AIDS deaths globally. Pulmonary infection is a common and frequently fatal complication, though little is known regarding the lower airway microbiome composition of this population. Our objectives were to characterize the lower airway microbiome of Ugandan HIV-infected patients with pneumonia, to determine relationships with demographic, clinical, immunological, and microbiological variables and to compare the composition and predicted metagenome of these communities to a comparable cohort of patients in the US (San Francisco). Bronchoalveolar lavage samples from a cohort of 60 Ugandan HIV-infected patients with acute pneumonia were collected. Amplified 16S ribosomal RNA was profiled and aforementioned relationships examined. Ugandan airway microbiome composition and predicted metagenomic function were compared to US HIV-infected pneumonia patients. Among the most common bacterial pulmonary pathogens, Pseudomonas aeruginosa was most prevalent in the Ugandan cohort. Patients with a richer and more diverse airway microbiome exhibited lower bacterial burden, enrichment of members of the Lachnospiraceae and sulfur-reducing bacteria and reduced expression of TNF-alpha and matrix metalloproteinase-9. Compared to San Franciscan patients, Ugandan airway microbiome were significantly richer, and compositionally distinct with predicted metagenomes that encoded a multitude of distinct pathogenic pathways e.g secretion systems. Ugandan pneumonia-associated airway microbiome is compositionally and functionally distinct from those detected in comparable patients in developed countries, a feature which may contribute to adverse outcomes in this population. Please note that the data from the comparable cohort of patients in the USUS data was published as supplemental material of PMID: 22760045 but not submitted to GEO The 'patient_info.txt' contains 12 clinical, 7 immunological and 3 microbiological variables for each patient.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Cholera causes an estimated 100,000 deaths annually worldwide, with the majority of burden reported in sub-Saharan Africa. In May 2018, the World Health Assembly committed to reducing worldwide cholera deaths by 90% by 2030. Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) plays a key role in reducing the near-term risk of cholera, although global supplies are limited. Characterizing the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of mass OCV deployment strategies is critical for setting expectations and developing cholera control plans that maximize the chances of success. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We compared the projected impacts of vaccination campaigns across sub-Saharan Africa from 2018 through 2030 when targeting geographically according to historical cholera burden and risk factors. We assessed the number of averted cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years and the cost-effectiveness of these campaigns with models that accounted for direct and indirect vaccine effects and population projections over time. Under current vaccine supply projections, an approach optimized to targeting by historical burden is projected to avert 828,971 (95% CI 803,370-859,980) cases (equivalent to 34.0% of projected cases; 95% CI 33.2%-34.8%). An approach that balances logistical feasibility with targeting historical burden is projected to avert 617,424 (95% CI 599,150-643,891) cases. In contrast, approaches optimized for targeting locations with limited access to water and sanitation are projected to avert 273,939 (95% CI 270,319-277,002) and 109,817 (95% CI 103,735-114,110) cases, respectively. We find that the most logistically feasible targeting strategy costs US$1,843 (95% CI 1,328-14,312) per DALY averted during this period and that effective geographic targeting of OCV campaigns can have a greater impact on cost-effectiveness than improvements to vaccine efficacy and moderate increases in coverage. Although our modeling approach does not project annual changes in baseline cholera risk or directly incorporate immunity from natural cholera infection, our estimates of the relative performance of different vaccination strategies should be robust to these factors. CONCLUSIONS:Our study suggests that geographic targeting substantially improves the cost-effectiveness and impact of oral cholera vaccination campaigns. Districts with the poorest access to improved water and sanitation are not the same as districts with the greatest historical cholera incidence. While OCV campaigns can improve cholera control in the near term, without rapid progress in developing water and sanitation services or dramatic increases in OCV supply, our results suggest that vaccine use alone is unlikely to allow us to achieve the 2030 goal.

Dataset Information

Exploring Droughts and Floods and Their Association with Cholera Outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Register-Based Ecological Study from 1990 to 2010.

Publications

Exploring Droughts and Floods and Their Association with Cholera Outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Register-Based Ecological Study from 1990 to 2010.

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