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Chaos and the (un)predictability of evolution in a changing environment.

ABSTRACT: Among the factors that may reduce the predictability of evolution, chaos, characterized by a strong dependence on initial conditions, has received much less attention than randomness due to genetic drift or environmental stochasticity. It was recently shown that chaos in phenotypic evolution arises commonly under frequency-dependent selection caused by competitive interactions mediated by many traits. This result has been used to argue that chaos should often make evolutionary dynamics unpredictable. However, populations also evolve largely in response to external changing environments, and such environmental forcing is likely to influence the outcome of evolution in systems prone to chaos. We investigate how a changing environment causing oscillations of an optimal phenotype interacts with the internal dynamics of an eco-evolutionary system that would be chaotic in a constant environment. We show that strong environmental forcing can improve the predictability of evolution by reducing the probability of chaos arising, and by dampening the magnitude of chaotic oscillations. In contrast, weak forcing can increase the probability of chaos, but it also causes evolutionary trajectories to track the environment more closely. Overall, our results indicate that, although chaos may occur in evolution, it does not necessarily undermine its predictability.

SUBMITTER: Rego-Costa A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5958977 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Chaos and the (un)predictability of evolution in a changing environment.

Rego-Costa Artur A Débarre Florence F Chevin Luis-Miguel LM

Evolution; international journal of organic evolution 20180110 2

Among the factors that may reduce the predictability of evolution, chaos, characterized by a strong dependence on initial conditions, has received much less attention than randomness due to genetic drift or environmental stochasticity. It was recently shown that chaos in phenotypic evolution arises commonly under frequency-dependent selection caused by competitive interactions mediated by many traits. This result has been used to argue that chaos should often make evolutionary dynamics unpredict ...[more]

PMID: 29235104

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Project description:Frequency-dependent (FD) selection, whereby fitness and selection depend on the genetic or phenotypic composition of the population, arises in numerous ecological contexts (competition, mate choice, crypsis, mimicry, etc.) and can strongly impact evolutionary dynamics. In particular, negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) is well known for its ability to potentially maintain stable polymorphisms, but it has also been invoked as a source of persistent, predictable frequency fluctuations. However, the conditions under which such fluctuations persist are not entirely clear. In particular, previous work rarely considered that FD is unlikely to be the sole driver of evolutionary dynamics when it occurs, because most environments are not static but instead change dynamically over time. Here, we investigate how FD interacts with a temporally fluctuating environment to shape the dynamics of population genetic change. We show that a simple metric introduced by Lewontin, the slope of frequency change against frequency near equilibrium, works as a key criterion for distinguishing microevolutionary outcomes, even in a changing environment. When this slope D is between 0 and -2 (consistent with the empirical examples we review), substantial fluctuations would not persist on their own in a large population occupying a constant environment, but they can still be maintained indefinitely as quasi-cycles fueled by environmental noise or genetic drift. However, such moderate NFDS buffers and temporally shifts evolutionary responses to periodic environments (e.g., seasonality). Stronger FD, with slope D < -2, can produce self-sustained cycles that may overwhelm responses to a changing environment, or even chaos that fundamentally limits predictability. This diversity of expected outcomes, together with the empirical evidence for both FD and environment-dependent selection, suggests that the interplay of internal dynamics with external forcing should be investigated more systematically to reach a better understanding and prediction of evolution.

Project description:Micronuclei research has regained its popularity due to the realization that genome chaos, a rapid and massive genome re-organization under stress, represents a major common mechanism for punctuated cancer evolution. The molecular link between micronuclei and chromothripsis (one subtype of genome chaos which has a selection advantage due to the limited local scales of chromosome re-organization), has recently become a hot topic, especially since the link between micronuclei and immune activation has been identified. Many diverse molecular mechanisms have been illustrated to explain the causative relationship between micronuclei and genome chaos. However, the newly revealed complexity also causes confusion regarding the common mechanisms of micronuclei and their impact on genomic systems. To make sense of these diverse and even conflicting observations, the genome theory is applied in order to explain a stress mediated common mechanism of the generation of micronuclei and their contribution to somatic evolution by altering the original set of information and system inheritance in which cellular selection functions. To achieve this goal, a history and a current new trend of micronuclei research is briefly reviewed, followed by a review of arising key issues essential in advancing the field, including the re-classification of micronuclei and how to unify diverse molecular characterizations. The mechanistic understanding of micronuclei and their biological function is re-examined based on the genome theory. Specifically, such analyses propose that micronuclei represent an effective way in changing the system inheritance by altering the coding of chromosomes, which belongs to the common evolutionary mechanism of cellular adaptation and its trade-off. Further studies of the role of micronuclei in disease need to be focused on the behavior of the adaptive system rather than specific molecular mechanisms that generate micronuclei. This new model can clarify issues important to stress induced micronuclei and genome instability, the formation and maintenance of genomic information, and cellular evolution essential in many common and complex diseases such as cancer.

Dataset Information

Chaos and the (un)predictability of evolution in a changing environment.

Publications

Chaos and the (un)predictability of evolution in a changing environment.

Similar Datasets

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