Prediction of Future Chronic Opioid Use Among Hospitalized Patients.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Calcaterra SL
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5975151 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Prediction of Future Chronic Opioid Use Among Hospitalized Patients.
Calcaterra S L SL Scarbro S S Hull M L ML Forber A D AD Binswanger I A IA Colborn K L KL
Journal of general internal medicine 20180205 6
<h4>Background</h4>Opioids are commonly prescribed in the hospital; yet, little is known about which patients will progress to chronic opioid therapy (COT) following discharge. We defined COT as receipt of ≥ 90-day supply of opioids with < 30-day gap in supply over a 180-day period or receipt of ≥ 10 opioid prescriptions over 1 year. Predictive tools to identify hospitalized patients at risk for future chronic opioid use could have clinical utility to improve pain management strategies and patie ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundPrevious research demonstrates an association between opioid prescribing at hospital discharge and future chronic opioid use. Various opioid guidelines and policies contributed to changes in opioid prescribing practices. How this affected hospitalized patients remains unknown.ObjectiveExternally validate a prediction model to identify hospitalized patients at the highest risk for future chronic opioid therapy (COT).DesignsRetrospective analysis of health record data from 2011 to 2022 using logistic regression.ParticipantsHospitalized adults with limited to no opioid use 1-year prior to hospitalization.SettingsA statewide healthcare system.Main measurementsUsed variables associated with progression to COT in a derivation cohort from a different healthcare system to predict expected outcomes in the validation cohort.Key resultsThe derivation cohort included 17,060 patients, of whom 9653 (56.6%) progressed to COT 1 year after discharge. Compared to the derivation cohort, in the validation cohort, patients who received indigent care (odds ratio [OR] = 0.40, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.27-0.59, p < .001) were least likely to progress to COT. Among variables assessed, opioid receipt at discharge was most strongly associated with progression to COT (OR = 3.74, 95% CI = 3.06-4.61, p < .001). The receiver operating characteristic curve for the validation set using coefficients from the derivation cohort performed slightly better than chance (AUC = 0.55).ConclusionsOur results highlight the importance of externally validating a prediction model prior to use outside of the derivation population. Periodic updates to models are necessary as policy changes and clinical practice recommendations may affect model performance.
| S-EPMC9899308 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPatients with chronic pancreatitis (CP) suffer from pain and receive increased opioid prescriptions with a high risk of opioid use disorder (OUD). We studied the predictors, trends and outcomes of OUD among patients hospitalized with CP.MethodsRecords with CP (with/without OUD) were extracted from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) 2012-2014, and the association of OUD with the burden of CP was calculated. We then charted the trends of OUD and its interaction with concomitant CP from NIS 2007-2014 (SAS 9.4).ResultsIn the period 2012-2014, 4349 (4.99%) of the 87,068 CP patients had concomitant OUD, with higher risk among patients who were young, females, white vs. Hispanics, and individuals with chronic back pain, arthritis, non-opioid substance use, mental health disorders, and those hospitalized in urban centers. OUD was associated with a longer hospital stay (6.9 vs. 6.5 days, P=0.0015) but no significant difference in charges ($47,151 vs. $49,017, P=0.0598) or mortality (1.64% vs. 0.74%, P=0.0506). From 2007-2014, the average yearly rate of OUD was 174 cases per 10,000 hospitalizations (174/10,000), almost 3 times higher among CP vs. non-CP (479/10,000 vs. 173/10,000, P<0.001), and it increased from 2007 to 2014 (135/10,000 to 216/10,000, P<0.001). The yearly increase was 2.7 times higher among patients with CP vs. non-CP (29.9/10,000 vs. 11.3/10,000 hospitalizations/year, P<0.001).ConclusionsCP is associated with higher rates and trends of OUD. Patients with CP at high risk of OUD may benefit from alternate analgesic regimens or surveillance for OUD when they are prescribed opioids.
| S-EPMC7903576 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLong-term opioid use is an increasingly important problem related to the ongoing opioid epidemic. The purpose of this study was to identify patient, hospitalization and system-level determinants of long term opioid therapy (LTOT) among patients recently discharged from hospital.DesignTo be eligible for this study, patient needed to have filled at least one opioid prescription three-months post-discharge. We retrieved data from the provincial health insurance agency to measure medical service and prescription drug use in the year prior to and after hospitalization. A multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards model was utilized to determine factors associated with time to the first LTOT occurrence, defined as time-varying cumulative opioid duration of ≥ 60 days.ResultsOverall, 22.4% of the 1,551 study patients were classified as LTOT, who had a mean age of 66.3 years (SD = 14.3). Having no drug copay status (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.91, 95% CI: 1.40-2.60), being a LTOT user before the index hospitalization (aHR 6.05, 95% CI: 4.22-8.68) or having history of benzodiazepine use (aHR 1.43, 95% CI: 1.12-1.83) were all associated with an increased likelihood of LTOT. Cardiothoracic surgical patients had a 40% lower LTOT risk (aHR 0.55, 95% CI: 0.31-0.96) as compared to medical patients. Initial opioid dispensation of > 90 milligram morphine equivalents (MME) was also associated with higher likelihood of LTOT (aHR 2.08, 95% CI: 1.17-3.69).Conclusions and relevanceSeveral patient-level characteristics associated with an increased risk of ≥ 60 days of cumulative opioid use. The results could be used to help identify patients who are at high-risk of continuing opioids beyond guideline recommendations and inform policies to curb excessive opioid prescribing.
| S-EPMC9754198 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundOpioids are widely used in moderate-to-severe chronic pain which is non-responsive to standard analgesics. Prescriptions have increased in Europe in the last decade, although remain lower than in USA. This work projected the future utilization and costs of opioids in chronic osteoarthritis (OA) pain in the Spanish National Health System (NHS).MethodsAn epidemiological model was populated with the opioid dispensing trends from 2010 to 2019 using Spanish Medicinal Agency rates of opioid utilization in subjects over 18 years of age and the real-world OPIOIDS study to estimate chronic-OA-pain patients receiving opioids. A best-fitted trend analysis model was applied estimating the likely number of DHD (defined daily dose/1000 inhabitants per day) to calculate projected opioid utilization and costs for the period 2020-2029.ResultsIn 2010, an estimated 5.67 DHD were dispensed for the equivalent of 217,076 chronic OA pain patients per day [1.99 DHD, 76,084 refractory to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs)]. From these trends and OA prevalence, the projected number of DHDs is expected to increase more than threefold to 17.98 DHDs by the year 2029 for the equivalent of 727,356 chronic OA pain patients per day (8.18 DHD, 330,720 refractory to NSAIDs); 41.8% on strong opioids. The estimated cost was €116.9m (€45.0m in NSAID-refractory OA) in 2010 rising by 222% to €376.1m (€199.7m refractory to NSAIDs) by 2029.ConclusionChronic-OA-pain-related opioid dispensing and costs to the NHS are set to increase more than threefold from 2010 to 2029 in Spain. Using opioids for OA pain is concerning given disease chronicity and other related costs not computed in these projections.Plain language summary• Opioids are widely used in chronic pain which is non-responsive to standard analgesics. Prescriptions have increased in Europe, although remain lower than in USA. Osteoarthritis (OA) is a degenerative joint disease usually accompanied by pain. Despite not recommended, opioids use in OA have been expanded because this health condition is increasing with ageing and, also, because physicians both primary and specialist boosted their use.• This study aimed to quantify the current burden of opioids used for chronic moderate-to-severe OA pain by estimating the number of defined daily doses per 1000 inhabitants per day (DHD) and associated costs, and to forecast the likely burden on the National Health System (NHS) in Spain for the years 2020-2029.• In 2010, an estimated 5.67 DHDs were dispensed for the equivalent of 217,076 chronic OA pain patients per day. From these trends, the projected number of DHDs is expected to increase more than threefold to 17.98 DHDs by the year 2029 for the equivalent of 727,356 chronic OA pain patients per day; 41.8% on strong opioids. The estimated cost was €116.9m in 2010 rising by 222% to €376.1m by 2029.• Chronic OA-pain-related opioid dispensing and costs to the NHS are set to increase substantially (threefold to more than fourfold) from 2010 to 2029 in Spain. Thus, using opioids for OA pain is concerning given disease chronicity, aging population and other related costs not computed in these projections. Our findings can inform payors and clinicians about ongoing discussions on appropriate analgesic management for longer-term OA pain, including resource requirements at a national level. Clinicians who prescribe opioids for OA pain should consider the potential implications of side effects such as sedation, cognitive deterioration, incremental need of caregivers, particularly in older people, and carefully consider the risk-benefit balance.
| S-EPMC8107672 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceLimited guidance exists regarding the optimal approach to management of pain in acute pancreatitis (AP).ObjectivesTo investigate sources of variability in opioid use for treatment of acute pain in patients hospitalized for AP and to explore a potential association of opioid prescribing patterns with length of stay.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study included 4307 patients 18 years and older hospitalized for AP in a community-based integrated health care system, from January 1, 2008, to June 30, 2015. Analysis began in November 2017.ExposuresOpioid use was quantified by morphine equivalent dose (MED).Main outcomes and measuresThree analyses were performed: (1) factors associated with increased opioid administration during the initial 12 hours of hospitalization (baseline), (2) association of baseline opioid use with length of stay, and (3) frequency of opioid use 90 days after hospital discharge (persistent use).ResultsThe cohort included 4307 patients (median [interquartile range] age, 57.4 [44.0-70.2] years; 2241 women [52.0%]) with AP. At baseline, 3443 patients (79.9%) received opioids, and 388 patients (9.6%) had persistent opioid use after discharge. After adjusting for pain and other clinical factors, women received less MED than men (adjusted event ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.79-0.86; P < .001). Hispanic and Asian patients received less MED than non-Hispanic white patients (adjusted event ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.81-0.90; P < .001; and adjusted event ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.72-0.86; P < .001, respectively). Alcohol-related AP etiology was associated with increased MED vs gallstone disorders (adjusted event ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05-1.18; P < .001). Two of 13 hospitals administered significantly less opioids compared with the others. Median (interquartile range) length of stay was independently associated with MED at baseline, with 3.0 (2.1-4.5) days among patients not receiving opioids vs 5.0 (3.2-8.7) days among patients in the highest quintile of MED (P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceIn addition to pain and disease severity, opioid use varied by etiology of AP, sex, race/ethnicity, and institution of treatment. Increased opioid use at baseline was associated with longer hospitalization. These findings suggest opportunities for improved approaches to pain control for patients with AP.
| S-EPMC6481601 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionTo date, no study has reported the prevalence of cannabis use in chronic pain patients. The aim of this study is to investigate the trends in cannabis use among chronic pain in-patients from 2011 to 2015 in the USA.MethodsPatients were identified from the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) database using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revision, diagnosis codes for chronic pain and cannabis use. Annual estimates and trends were determined for cannabis use, patient characteristics, cannabis use among subgroups of chronic pain conditions, cost, length of stay, and associated discharge diagnosis.ResultsBetween 2011 to 2015, a total of 247,949 chronic pain patients were cannabis users, increasing from 33,189 to 72,115 (P < 0.001). There were upward trends of cannabis use in females (38.7-40.7%; P = 0.03), Medicare insured patients (32.7-40.4%; P < 0.01), patients with lowest annual household income (36.1-40.9%; P = 0.02), patients aged 45-64 years (45.9-49.2%; P < 0.001), and patients with tobacco use disorder (63.8-72.4%; P < 0.0001). Concurrently, cannabis use decreased among patients with opioid use disorder (23.8-19.9%; P < 0.001). Cannabis use increased from 2011 to 2015 in patients with chronic regional pain syndrome, trauma, spondylosis, and failed back surgery syndrome. Adjusted total hospitalization cost increased from $31,271 ($1333) in 2011 to $38,684 ($946) in 2015 (P < 0.001).ConclusionsCannabis use increased substantially from 2011 to 2015, while the rates of cannabis use in opioid users down-trended simultaneously. Disparities in cannabis use among subgroups should be explored further.
| S-EPMC7370966 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background Commercial insurance data show that chronic opioid use in opioid-naive patients occurs in 1.5% to 8% of patients undergoing surgical procedures, but little is known about patients with Medicaid. Methods Opioid prescription data and medical coding data from 4,788 Medicaid patients who underwent cholecystectomy were analyzed to determine opioid use patterns. Results A total of 54.4% of patients received opioids prior to surgery, and 38.8% continued to fill opioid prescriptions chronically; 27.1% of opioid-naive patients continued to get opioids chronically. Patients who received ≥ 50 MME/d had nearly 8 times the odds of chronic opioid use. Each additional opioid prescription filled within 30 days was associated with increased odds of chronic use (odds ratio: 1.71). Conclusion Opioid prescriptions are common prior to cholecystectomy in Medicaid patients, and 38.8% of patients continue to receive opioid prescriptions well after surgical recovery. Even 27.1% of opioid-naive patients continued to receive opioid prescriptions chronically. Highlights • A total of 54.4% of cholecystectomy Medicaid patients received opioids prior to surgery.• Nearly 40% continued to fill opioid prescriptions chronically.• Among opioid-naive patients, 27.1% continue to receive opioids after typical recovery from surgery.• Patients receiving ≥ 50 MME/d 30 days after surgery had 8 times the odds of chronic opioid use.• Each additional opioid prescription was associated with increased odds of chronic use (odds ratio: 1.71).
| S-EPMC9218552 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPatients with opioid use disorder (OUD) frequently leave the hospital as patient directed discharges (PDDs) because of untreated withdrawal and pain. Short-acting opioids can complement methadone, buprenorphine, and non-opioid adjuvants for withdrawal and pain, however little evidence exists for this approach. We described the safety and preliminary outcomes of short-acting opioid agonist treatment (sOAT) for hospitalized patients with OUD at an academic hospital in Philadelphia, PA.MethodsFrom August 2021 to March 2022, a pharmacist guided implementation of a pilot sOAT protocol consisting of escalating doses of oxycodone or oral hydromorphone scheduled every four hours, intravenous hydromorphone as needed, and non-opioid adjuvants for withdrawal and pain. All patients were encouraged to start methadone or buprenorphine treatment for OUD. We abstracted data from the electronic health record into a secure platform. The primary outcome was safety: administration of naloxone, over-sedation, or a fall. Secondary outcomes were PDDs and respective length of stay (LOS), discharges on methadone or buprenorphine, and discharges with naloxone. We compared secondary outcomes to hospitalizations in the 12 months prior to the index hospitalization among the same cohort.ResultsOf the 23 cases, 13 (56.5%) were female, 19 (82.6%) were 40 years or younger, and 22 (95.7%) identified as White. Twenty-one (91.3%) regularly injected opioids and four (17.3%) were enrolled in methadone or buprenorphine prior to hospitalization. sOAT was administered at median doses of 200-320 morphine milligram equivalents per 24-h period. Naloxone administration was documented once in the operating room, over-sedation was documented once after unsanctioned opioid use, and there were no falls. The PDD rate was 44% with median LOS 5 days (compared to PDD rate 69% with median LOS 3 days for prior admissions), 65% of sOAT cases were discharged on buprenorphine or methadone (compared to 33% for prior admissions), and 65% of sOAT cases were discharged with naloxone (compared to 19% for prior admissions).ConclusionsPilot implementation of sOAT was safe. Compared to prior admissions in the same cohort, the PDD rate was lower, LOS for PDDs was longer, and more patients were discharged on buprenorphine or methadone and with naloxone, however efficacy for these secondary outcomes remains to be established.
| S-EPMC9951406 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNaloxone is a life-saving opioid antagonist. Chronic pain guidelines recommend that physicians co-prescribe naloxone to patients at high risk for opioid overdose. However, clinical tools to efficiently identify patients who could benefit from naloxone are lacking.ObjectiveTo develop and validate an overdose predictive model which could be used in primary care settings to assess the need for naloxone.DesignRetrospective cohort.SettingDerivation site was an integrated health system in Colorado; validation site was a safety-net health system in Colorado.ParticipantsWe developed a predictive model in a cohort of 42,828 patients taking chronic opioid therapy and externally validated the model in 10,708 patients.Main measuresPotential predictors and outcomes (nonfatal pharmaceutical and heroin overdoses) were extracted from electronic health records. Fatal overdose outcomes were identified from state vital records. To match the approximate shelf-life of naloxone, we used Cox proportional hazards regression to model the 2-year risk of overdose. Calibration and discrimination were assessed.Key resultsA five-variable predictive model showed good calibration and discrimination (bootstrap-corrected c-statistic?=?0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69-0.78) in the derivation site, with sensitivity of 66.1% and specificity of 66.6%. In the validation site, the model showed good discrimination (c-statistic?=?0.75, 95% CI 0.70-0.80) and less than ideal calibration, with sensitivity and specificity of 82.2% and 49.5%, respectively.ConclusionsAmong patients on chronic opioid therapy, the predictive model identified 66-82% of all subsequent opioid overdoses. This model is an efficient screening tool to identify patients who could benefit from naloxone to prevent overdose deaths. Population differences across the two sites limited calibration in the validation site.
| S-EPMC6153224 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To determine the association of medical marijuana legalization with prescription opioid utilization. METHODS:A 10% sample of a nationally representative database of commercially insured population was used to gather information on opioid use, chronic opioid use, and high-risk opioid use for the years 2006-2014. Adults with pharmacy and medical benefits for the entire calendar year were included in the population for that year. Multilevel logistic regression analysis, controlling for patient, person-year, and state-level factors, were used to determine the impact of medical marijuana legalization on the three opioid use measures. Sub-group analysis among cancer-free adults and cancer-free adults with at least one chronic non-cancer pain condition in the particular year were conducted. Alternate regression models were used to test the robustness of our results including a fixed effects model, an alternate definition for start date for medical marijuana legalization, a person-level analysis, and a falsification test. RESULTS:The final sample included a total of 4,840,562 persons translating into 15,705,562 person years. Medical marijuana legalization was found to be associated with a lower odds of any opioid use: OR?=?0.95 (0.94-0.96), chronic opioid use: OR?=?0.93 (0.91-0.95), and high-risk opioid use: OR?=?0.96 (0.94-0.98). The findings were similar in both the sub-group analyses and all the sensitivity analyses. The falsification tests showed no association between medical marijuana legalization and prescriptions for antihyperlipidemics (OR?=?1.00; CI 0.99-1.01) or antihypertensives (OR?=?1.00; CI 0.99-1.01). CONCLUSIONS:In states where marijuana is available through medical channels, a modestly lower rate of opioid and high-risk opioid prescribing was observed. Policy makers could consider medical marijuana legalization as a tool that may modestly reduce chronic and high-risk opioid use. However, further research assessing risk versus benefits of medical marijuana legalization and head to head comparisons of marijuana versus opioids for pain management is required.
| S-EPMC6667507 | biostudies-literature