Dataset Information

Future projections of opioid use and cost in patients with chronic osteoarthritis pain in Spain.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Opioids are widely used in moderate-to-severe chronic pain which is non-responsive to standard analgesics. Prescriptions have increased in Europe in the last decade, although remain lower than in USA. This work projected the future utilization and costs of opioids in chronic osteoarthritis (OA) pain in the Spanish National Health System (NHS).

Methods

An epidemiological model was populated with the opioid dispensing trends from 2010 to 2019 using Spanish Medicinal Agency rates of opioid utilization in subjects over 18 years of age and the real-world OPIOIDS study to estimate chronic-OA-pain patients receiving opioids. A best-fitted trend analysis model was applied estimating the likely number of DHD (defined daily dose/1000 inhabitants per day) to calculate projected opioid utilization and costs for the period 2020-2029.

Results

In 2010, an estimated 5.67 DHD were dispensed for the equivalent of 217,076 chronic OA pain patients per day [1.99 DHD, 76,084 refractory to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs)]. From these trends and OA prevalence, the projected number of DHDs is expected to increase more than threefold to 17.98 DHDs by the year 2029 for the equivalent of 727,356 chronic OA pain patients per day (8.18 DHD, 330,720 refractory to NSAIDs); 41.8% on strong opioids. The estimated cost was €116.9m (€45.0m in NSAID-refractory OA) in 2010 rising by 222% to €376.1m (€199.7m refractory to NSAIDs) by 2029.

Conclusion

Chronic-OA-pain-related opioid dispensing and costs to the NHS are set to increase more than threefold from 2010 to 2029 in Spain. Using opioids for OA pain is concerning given disease chronicity and other related costs not computed in these projections.

Plain language summary

• Opioids are widely used in chronic pain which is non-responsive to standard analgesics. Prescriptions have increased in Europe, although remain lower than in USA. Osteoarthritis (OA) is a degenerative joint disease usually accompanied by pain. Despite not recommended, opioids use in OA have been expanded because this health condition is increasing with ageing and, also, because physicians both primary and specialist boosted their use.• This study aimed to quantify the current burden of opioids used for chronic moderate-to-severe OA pain by estimating the number of defined daily doses per 1000 inhabitants per day (DHD) and associated costs, and to forecast the likely burden on the National Health System (NHS) in Spain for the years 2020-2029.• In 2010, an estimated 5.67 DHDs were dispensed for the equivalent of 217,076 chronic OA pain patients per day. From these trends, the projected number of DHDs is expected to increase more than threefold to 17.98 DHDs by the year 2029 for the equivalent of 727,356 chronic OA pain patients per day; 41.8% on strong opioids. The estimated cost was €116.9m in 2010 rising by 222% to €376.1m by 2029.• Chronic OA-pain-related opioid dispensing and costs to the NHS are set to increase substantially (threefold to more than fourfold) from 2010 to 2029 in Spain. Thus, using opioids for OA pain is concerning given disease chronicity, aging population and other related costs not computed in these projections. Our findings can inform payors and clinicians about ongoing discussions on appropriate analgesic management for longer-term OA pain, including resource requirements at a national level. Clinicians who prescribe opioids for OA pain should consider the potential implications of side effects such as sedation, cognitive deterioration, incremental need of caregivers, particularly in older people, and carefully consider the risk-benefit balance.

SUBMITTER: Rejas-Gutierrez J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8107672 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:The study assessed 12-month chronic pain (CP)-related health care utilization and costs among chronic noncancer pain (CNCP) patients who initiated various long-term opioid treatments. Treatments included monotherapy with long-acting opioids (mono-LAOs), mono-therapy with short-acting opioids (mono-SAOs), both LAOs and SAOs (combination), and opioid therapy initiated with SAO or LAO and switched to the other class (switch). Using MarketScan® claims databases (2006-2012), we identified CNCP patients with ≥90 days opioid supply after pain diagnosis and continuous enrollment 12 months before pain diagnosis (baseline period) and 12 months after opioid start (post-index period). Outcomes included CP-related health care utilization and costs. Among CNCP patients (n=21,203), the cohort distribution was 74% mono-SAOs, 22% combination, 2% mono-LAOs, and 2% switch. During follow-up, the average daily morphine equivalent dose was highest in mono-LAO patients (96.4 mg) compared with combination patients (89.8 mg), switch patients (64.3 mg), and mono-SAO patients (36.2 mg). After adjusting for baseline differences, the mono-LAO cohort had lower total CP-related costs ($4,933) compared with the mono-SAO ($8,604), switch ($10,470), and combination ($15,190) cohorts (all: P<0.05). Mono-LAO patients had greater CP-related prescription costs but lower medical costs than the other cohorts during the follow-up period, including lower CP-related hospitalizations (1% vs 11%-20%), emergency department visits (4% vs 11%-18%), and diagnostic radiology use (21% vs 54%-61%) (all: P<0.001). Use of pain-related medications and other treatment modalities was also significantly lower in the mono-LAO cohort relative to the other cohorts. CNCP patients using long-term monotherapy with LAOs had the lowest CP-related total health care costs in the 12 months after opioid initiation compared with mono-SAO, switch, or combination patients despite higher opioid daily doses and higher prescription costs. Future research accounting for severity and duration of pain would aid in determining the optimal long-term opioid regimen for CNCP patients.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Opioids are commonly prescribed in the hospital; yet, little is known about which patients will progress to chronic opioid therapy (COT) following discharge. We defined COT as receipt of ??90-day supply of opioids with <?30-day gap in supply over a 180-day period or receipt of ??10 opioid prescriptions over 1 year. Predictive tools to identify hospitalized patients at risk for future chronic opioid use could have clinical utility to improve pain management strategies and patient education during hospitalization and discharge. OBJECTIVE:The objective of this study was to identify a parsimonious statistical model for predicting future COT among hospitalized patients not on COT before hospitalization. DESIGN:Retrospective analysis electronic health record (EHR) data from 2008 to 2014 using logistic regression. PATIENTS:Hospitalized patients at an urban, safety net hospital. MAIN MEASUREMENTS:Independent variables included medical and mental health diagnoses, substance and tobacco use disorder, chronic or acute pain, surgical intervention during hospitalization, past year receipt of opioid or non-opioid analgesics or benzodiazepines, opioid receipt at hospital discharge, milligrams of morphine equivalents prescribed per hospital day, and others. KEY RESULTS:Model prediction performance was estimated using area under the receiver operator curve, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. A model with 13 covariates was chosen using stepwise logistic regression on a randomly down-sampled subset of the data. Sensitivity and specificity were optimized using the Youden's index. This model predicted correctly COT in 79% of the patients and no COT correctly in 78% of the patients. CONCLUSIONS:Our model accessed EHR data to predict 79% of the future COT among hospitalized patients. Application of such a predictive model within the EHR could identify patients at high risk for future chronic opioid use to allow clinicians to provide early patient education about pain management strategies and, when able, to wean opioids prior to discharge while incorporating alternative therapies for pain into discharge planning.