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Regression Discontinuity and Randomized Controlled Trial Estimates: An Application to The Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trials.


ABSTRACT: PURPOSE:We compare results from regression discontinuity (RD) analysis to primary results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) utilizing data from two contemporaneous RCTs for treatment of fungal corneal ulcers. METHODS:Patients were enrolled in the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trials I and II (MUTT I & MUTT II) based on baseline visual acuity: patients with acuity ? 20/400 (logMAR 1.3) enrolled in MUTT I, and >20/400 in MUTT II. MUTT I investigated the effect of topical natamycin versus voriconazole on best spectacle-corrected visual acuity. MUTT II investigated the effect of topical voriconazole plus placebo versus topical voriconazole plus oral voriconazole. We compared the RD estimate (natamycin arm of MUTT I [N = 162] versus placebo arm of MUTT II [N = 54]) to the RCT estimate from MUTT I (topical natamycin [N = 162] versus topical voriconazole [N = 161]). RESULTS:In the RD, patients receiving natamycin had mean improvement of 4-lines of visual acuity at 3 months (logMAR -0.39, 95% CI: -0.61, -0.17) compared to topical voriconazole plus placebo, and 2-lines in the RCT (logMAR -0.18, 95% CI: -0.30, -0.05) compared to topical voriconazole. CONCLUSIONS:The RD and RCT estimates were similar, although the RD design overestimated effects compared to the RCT.

SUBMITTER: Oldenburg CE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5980795 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Regression Discontinuity and Randomized Controlled Trial Estimates: An Application to The Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trials.

Oldenburg Catherine E CE   Venkatesh Prajna N N   Krishnan Tiruvengada T   Rajaraman Revathi R   Srinivasan Muthiah M   Ray Kathryn J KJ   O'Brien Kieran S KS   Glymour M Maria MM   Porco Travis C TC   Acharya Nisha R NR   Rose-Nussbaumer Jennifer J   Lietman Thomas M TM  

Ophthalmic epidemiology 20180502 4


<h4>Purpose</h4>We compare results from regression discontinuity (RD) analysis to primary results of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) utilizing data from two contemporaneous RCTs for treatment of fungal corneal ulcers.<h4>Methods</h4>Patients were enrolled in the Mycotic Ulcer Treatment Trials I and II (MUTT I & MUTT II) based on baseline visual acuity: patients with acuity ≤ 20/400 (logMAR 1.3) enrolled in MUTT I, and >20/400 in MUTT II. MUTT I investigated the effect of topical natamycin ve  ...[more]

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