Dataset Information

Predictors of firearm violence in urban communities: A machine-learning approach.

ABSTRACT: Interpersonal firearm violence is a leading cause of death and injuries in the United States. Identifying community characteristics associated with firearm violence is important to improve confounder selection and control in health research, to better understand community-level factors that are associated with firearm violence, and to enhance community surveillance and control of firearm violence. The objective of this research was to use machine learning to identify an optimal set of predictors for urban interpersonal firearm violence rates using a broad set of community characteristics. The final list of 18 predictive covariates explain 77.8% of the variance in firearm violence rates, and are publicly available, facilitating their inclusion in analyses relating violence and health. This list includes the black isolation and segregation indices, rates of educational attainment, marital status, indicators of wealth and poverty, longitude, latitude, and temperature.

SUBMITTER: Goin DE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5985152 | biostudies-literature | 2018 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictors of firearm violence in urban communities: A machine-learning approach.

Goin Dana E DE Rudolph Kara E KE Ahern Jennifer J

Health & place 20180314

Interpersonal firearm violence is a leading cause of death and injuries in the United States. Identifying community characteristics associated with firearm violence is important to improve confounder selection and control in health research, to better understand community-level factors that are associated with firearm violence, and to enhance community surveillance and control of firearm violence. The objective of this research was to use machine learning to identify an optimal set of predictors ...[more]

PMID: 29549755

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Project description:Firearm homicides disproportionately affect Black communities. Redlining - discriminatory lending practices of the early 20th century - are associated with current increased rates of firearm violence. Poverty and concentrated disadvantage are also associated with firearm violence. The interaction of these factors with racist redlining housing practices remains unclear. We used generalized structural equation modeling to characterize the mediators through which redlining practices of the 1930s led to present rates of firearm violence in Boston using a negative binomial model. Principle component analysis was used to create four distinct mediating variables representing census block socioeconomic and built environment information, while reducing dimensionality. We calculated the direct effect between harmful (Red and Yellow) vs beneficial (Green) designations and firearm incident rate, indirect effect between redlining designation and firearm incident rate through each mediating variable, and the total effect. The percentage mediation of each mediator was subsequently calculated. Red and Yellow areas of Boston were associated with an 11•1 (95% CI 5•5,22•4) and 11•4 (5•7,22•8) increased incident rate of shooting when compared to Green. In the pathway between Red designation and firearm incident rate, poverty and poor educational attainment mediated 20% of the interaction, share of rented housing mediated 8%, and Black share of the population 3%. In the pathway between Yellow designation and firearm incident rate, poverty and poor educational attainment mediated 16% of the association, and Black share of the population mediated 13%. Redlining practices of the 1930s potentially contribute to increased rates of firearm violence through changes to neighborhood environments, namely through preclusion from homeownership, poverty, poor educational attainment, and concentration (i.e. segregation) of Black communities. These downstream mediating factors serve as points for policy interventions to address urban firearm violence. Michael Poulson and Miriam Neufeld were supported by T32 Training Grants (HP10028, GM86308).

Project description:ImportanceEvidence suggests that limiting access to firearms among individuals at high risk of suicide can be an effective means of suicide prevention, yet accurately identifying those at risk to intervene remains a key challenge. Firearm purchasing records may offer a large-scale and objective data source for the development of tools to predict firearm suicide risk.ObjectiveTo test whether a statewide database of handgun transaction records, coupled with machine learning techniques, can be used to forecast firearm suicide risk.Design, setting, and participantsThis prognostic study used the California database of 4 976 391 handgun transaction records from 1 951 006 individuals from January 1, 1996, to October 6, 2015. Transaction-level random forest classification was implemented to predict firearm suicide risk, and the relative predictive power of features in the algorithm was estimated via permutation importance. Analyses were performed from December 1, 2020, to May 19, 2022.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcome was firearm suicide within 1 year of a firearm transaction, derived from California death records (1996-2016). With the use of California's Dealer's Records of Sale (1996-2015), 41 handgun, transaction, purchaser, and community-level predictor variables were generated.ResultsThere are a total of 4 976 391 transactions in the California's Dealer's Record of Sale database representing 1 951 006 individuals (1 525 754 men [78.2% of individuals]; mean [SD] age, 43.4 [13.9] years). Firearm suicide within 1 year occurred in 0.07% of handgun transactions (3278 transactions among 2614 individuals). A total of 38.6% of observed firearm suicides were among transactions classified in the highest-risk ventile (379 of 983 transactions), with 95% specificity. Among the small number of transactions with a random forest score above 0.95, more than two-thirds (24 of 35 [68.6%]) were associated with a purchaser who died by firearm suicide within 1 year. Important features included known risk factors, such as older age at first purchase, and previously unreported predictors, including distance to firearms dealer and month of purchase.Conclusions and relevanceThis prognostic study presented the first large-scale machine learning analysis of individual-level handgun transaction records. The results suggested the potential utility of such records in identifying high-risk individuals to aid suicide prevention efforts. It also identified handgun, individual, and community characteristics that have strong predictive relationships with firearm suicide and may warrant further study.

Dataset Information

Predictors of firearm violence in urban communities: A machine-learning approach.

Publications

Predictors of firearm violence in urban communities: A machine-learning approach.

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